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Last Updated: April 8th at 3:00pm ET

 

These are my rankings are for Dynasty League rookie drafts. My full veteran ranks are available here.

 

Rookie Evaluation Philosophy:

  • The most important thing to know about a rookie is where they were drafted.
    • In addition to draft position, we’re looking for additional information that is not fully baked into draft position.
      • At WR for example, post-draft I tend not to put a lot of stock into 40 times, raw production stats, level of competition, and other variables that don’t appear to be very predictive once draft position is accounted for.
      • This also means that I don’t do a detailed film analysis on each prospect..
        • While traditional scouting is highly valuable, it remains the primary focus of the NFL draft selection process. Therefore simply using draft position mostly captures what could be gained through my own film analysis. What isn’t captured in draft position, I try to fill in by reading scouting reports from film experts.
        • I do watch all the prospects, as actually seeing these guys play is invaluable for helping to understand the type of player I’m analyzing. But my own film study isn’t driving these rankings.
      • Conversely, I tend to be interested in information that may seem at first glance to be less important to success than what draftniks typically focus on.
        •  eg. career market share of yards; whether a player declared early; whether a player will begin their NFL career at 21; kick and punt return efficiency for players without measured athleticism.
        • …because I’m looking for information that we can add to draft position and improve our hit rate, rather than simply predict draft position in the first place.
        • In other words, I’m looking for information that the NFL is, to some degree, ignoring.
  • Situation and landing spot matters a lot more for RBs than WRs. Anyone who talked themselves out of A.J. Brown because there weren’t enough targets in Tennessee or Juju Smith-Schuster and Chris Godwin because they were “blocked” by a superstar WR, or thought that Courtland Sutton and D.J. Chark were doomed by bad QB play knows what I mean. Talent shines through at WR.
  • RB situation is very important but talent still matters. I particularly like to see pass catching ability, youth, agility, and weight adjusted speed.
  • Rookie TEs tend to take a long time to develop into productive fantasy assets, and very few TEs ever return difference making production. And roster spots–especially in shallow leagues–tend to better spent on the other skill positions. As a result I’m usually only interested in premium TE rookie prospects.
  • This year I’ve added a column for HS Graduation Year. Prospects from the class of 2018 count as early declares and I treat everyone else as 4 year+ players.

ETR Dynasty Rankings - Rookies