It’s really September, and the new month starts off with one of the best Game 7s in the first round in recent memory. The Nuggets and Jazz series has been a scoring fest with the Jazz putting up a 125.4 O rating and the Nuggets not too far behind at 120.8. The Nuggets can be the 12th team ever to overcome a 3-1 deficit, and I bet you can think of at least one of the 11. The other game today should be a great one as the Raptors look to bounce back from getting destroyed by Boston.
Boston Celtics vs. Toronto Raptors (-1.5), 5:40 pm ET
Team totals: Celtics 108.5, Raptors 110
Injury News: Javonte Green, Gordon Hayward, Tremont Waters, Oshae Brissett and Patrick McCaw are all out.
Celtics Expected Starters: Kemba Walker, Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Daniel Theis
Raptors Expected Starters: Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, O.G. Anunoby, Pascal Siakam, Marc Gasol
Celtics Rotation Notes: Tatum played the whole second and third, Tatum or Kemba on the whole game (excluding garbage time), one minute of Grant Williams at the five, three minutes of Brad Wanamaker, Smart and Kemba (20 Kemba and Smart together), Robert Williams in over Enes Kanter (got to 17 thanks to foul trouble from Theis), Celtics smashed in nine minutes of starters vs. starters at a +50.8 net rating.
Raptors Rotation Notes: Nine minutes of Serge Ibaka with Gasol in Game 1 (only four combined in Nets series, due to some foul trouble for Siakam, but Nurse suggested he wanted to play it), four minutes of big frontcourt of Siakam, Gasol and Serge, three minutes of Siakam at the five (three of them just before garbage time).
*The Celtics really covered FVV well with only two of his 11 treys coming on wide-open attempts (36.4% of them in Nets series, 47.2% of them in the seeding games). They also really took away his multiple-dribble shots at 1-of-8 on shots with two-plus dribbles, and he only went 1-of-12 from the field with under 18 seconds left in the shot clock (a couple transition buckets accounted for most of his makes, 3-of-16 overall). It was kind of obvious FVV was going to take a step back offensively in this series after horrendous defense from the Nets, and his six steals really salvaged his day. Kemba held him to 0-of-5 in Game 1 and 5-of-24 in the regular season, so it might be a tough go for FVV again. If you’re into just narratives, FVV’s kids are in the bubble, so Papa VanVleet is one of the best narratives out there.
*Jayson Tatum torched Kyle Lowry’s defense in the season (73 eFG% on 11 attempts in 69 partial possessions), but Lowry was much better at limiting Tatum to just two shots against him with two turnovers, as well. The Raptors really took away Tatum from getting downhill at just four points off drives, and ideally he does more of that from a fantasy perspective because he is at 0.96 FD points per drive in the playoffs (ranks second to Lou Williams’ 1.10, min. 23 drives). Tatum also scored 10 of his 21 points in the 11 minutes without Kemba on the floor next to him (37 minutes total), and part of that was because Kemba was cookin’. Tatum should bounce back today.
*It looked like the Celtics knew that the Raptors don’t defend corner threes well with the Raptors allowing the most corner threes in each corner in the season. The Celtics went 10-of-15 on corner treys to more than double Toronto’s league-leading 4.6 allowed. Jaylen Brown was their main corner three guy on the season, and he was 2-of-4, but it was Marcus Smart who killed the Raptors the most there at 5-of-7 in the corners (Kemba, Wanamaker, Semi Ojeleye one each). Smart was left wide open on seven of his nine attempts from deep and a lot of it had to do with Pascal Siakam over-helping to leave him open. Smart probably won’t get this kind of shot quality again. Jaylen looked like he was going to get real hot early with FVV on him, but it got away from him as the Raptors mixed up the matchups on him. He should have a better shot today as the Raptors make adjustments to what was beating them in Game 1.
*Pascal Siakam continues to be an offensive enigma. Pascal has been a topic for coach Nick Nurse for the entire bubble and even said Pascal nine times in a row because it seemed like it’s all he talked about. Nurse seemed encouraged by Siakam’s shot selection in the loss. “I think we’ll always look at trying to get him involved in about all areas: as a post-up player, as a jump shooter, as a handler in the screen-and-roll, as a setter in a screen-and-roll,” Nurse said. “I think we’ve got to mix it up and vary it, even (give him) some isolations on top, isos on the side, hopefully get him involved in the transition game a little bit as well.” In the bubble, Siakam is at just 31.1% on his wide-open treys, which is way down from his 38.0% prior to the bubble this season (close to league average of 38.3%). He continues to struggle in the paint, and the Raptors need him to be better.
*Injury wise for the PGs, Lowry looked healthy after his ankle sprain last week. Nurse continues to put Lowry on bigger guys like Tatum, and it really puts him at risk for foul trouble like he had in Game 1. Lowry was also really sloppy with his turnovers, and it was really just a bad game. As for Kemba, he did tweak his knee and said he was feeling “really good” on Monday. He went through a full practice, so expect a full workload. Walker’s defense was outstanding in Game 1 with three deflections and shutting down FVV (mentioned above). This is still a really tough matchup for him against an elite PNR defense in the Raptors.
Matchup Helps: Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Robert Williams, Pascal Siakam
Matchup Hurts: Fred VanVleet, Kemba Walker, Enes Kanter, Marc Gasol
Utah Jazz (-1) vs. Denver Nuggets, 8:30 pm ET
Team totals: Jazz 109.3, Nuggets 108.3
Injury News: Will Barton, Vlatko Cancar, Ed Davis and Justin Wright-Foreman are all out.
Jazz Expected Starters: Mike Conley, Donovan Mitchell, Joe Ingles, Royce O’Neale, Rudy Gobert
Nuggets Expected Starters: Jamal Murray, Monte Morris, Jerami Grant, Paul Millsap, Nikola Jokic (note: Wouldn’t be surprised to see Millsap get benched, but chances are he’s just on a short leash)
Jazz Rotation Notes: Clarkson closed over Ingles, Ingles minutes have trended down over last three (closed in previous two).
Nuggets Rotation Notes: 43 minutes of Jamal Murray with the non-Murray minutes having Monte Morris, Gary Harris, Michael Porter Jr., Jerami Grant and Nikola Jokic, three most-used Millsap lineups have very high D rating (139.8, 138.5, 127.8), main 4Q lineup was Murray, Craig, Grant, MPJ, Joker, Craig played final 14:16, MPJ played final 17:23.
*Jamal Murray went full Morey ball with none of his 50 points coming in the mid-range (two shots). All series long, Murray is just destroying the Jazz with a defender four-plus feet away on treys at 27-of-45 for a 90.0 eFG%, and he’s at a ridiculous 23-of-38 on pull-up treys (60.5%). When it comes to who the Jazz can put on him, it doesn’t matter. Here’s how the matchup data has Murray’s performance based on who is guarding him:
74 points, 72.9 TS% vs. Royce O’Neale (141.9 partial poss)
32 points, 81.0 TS% vs. Joe Ingles (51.9)
20 points, 76.9 TS% vs. Donovan Mitchell (30.1)
41 points, 62.6 TS% vs. Rudy Gobert (21.6)
Nine points, 90 TS% vs. Jordan Clarkson (14.8)
Murray getting screens more often has really set him up at a tidy 1.34 PPP for his 14.5 points as a PNR handler in this series for almost triple his season average of 5.1 points per game. He continues to initiate offense and only has 3.3 points per game as a spot-up shooter, and he’s been deadly on drives at 72.1 TS%. Mike Malone did take the ball out of his hands at times with some Monte Morris help, but Murray has just obliterated in 124 minutes without Morris in this series at a 43/5/7 per-40 line. If Gary Harris does cut into Monte’s role more, it may help Murray even more. Murray also has a net rating of +12.4 without Morris in this series and a -3.2 with him. There’s a reason his O/U scoring number is 31.5, and I’d take the over. Back when the Nuggets went down 3-1, Malone said he needs more out of Murray and Jokic, and he’s certainly getting it.
*Gary Harris was outstanding on Jordan Clarkson, who had been torching the Nuggets. Clarkson didn’t get any shots off in the 13 partial possessions against Harris, and Clarkson went just 5-of-14 from the field for his most inefficient game of the series. The Nuggets bench came up pretty big, and Harris was a big part of that. Harris said he was a little tired after his first game in five months, but he’s not on the injury report. Additionally, we found out he suffered his injury in the bubble just before the games started, so that’s a bit of a minor plus because he was probably in shape before that injury.
*Michael Porter Jr. may have had his most impactful defensive game of the series in Game 6, and his rebounds were key in some big spots. Malone noticed and talked up MPJ’s rebounding in Game 6, and closing with him in a do-or-die game bodes very well for him despite his lack of offense. Malone has previously said he loves his current starting lineup, but Porter Jr. should still take minutes away from Millsap. Grant still played great and should see decent minutes tonight.
*It’s almost impossible to believe the Nuggets had locked up Donovan Mitchell in the regular season. He’s just on another level at a 37.4 usage rate and a 72.7 TS% in the playoffs. The Nuggets have no answer for him. Both Mitchell and Mike Conley are 7-of-10 on catch-and-shoot treys (105.0 eFG%), but Mitchell is just crushing off the dribble on big volume at 63.0 eFG% on pullups. He has 19.2 points per game as a PNR handler, and just has so many layers to how he’s destroying the Nuggets defense. This is going to be fun.
Matchup Helps: Jamal Murray, Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert, Nikola Jokic
Matchup Hurts: Jordan Clarkson, Paul Millsap
