Welcome to the third playoff edition of GPP Leverage. This article is going to be a catch-all space for my GPP thoughts. In every article I’ll address some of the relevant GPP plays for that day’s slate, but some of the articles will be more focused on plays and others more focused on strategy. Today’s article is a strategy session. As the slate sizes condense, the edge narrows by simply selecting the right plays and I want to talk through some ways to play GPPs with limited options and condensed ownership. The two-game slates are a bit of a unique animal and we’re going to have a bunch of them over the next two weeks.
Let’s start with the value of avoiding duplicate lineups. Imagine you’re playing in a 10-person winner-take-all contest. When lock hits you find out that your nine opponents all have the same exact lineup while your lineup differs from the crowd. If you’re thoughtful, you celebrate wildly because you understand that your expected value has gone from 1/10th of the prize pool to 1/2 of the prize pool. You just have to beat one lineup in order to take home the entire prize instead of having to beat nine different lineups. By simply being unique in this scenario, you’ve increased your expected value.