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Betting into an extremely liquid market such as NFL sides and totals is a very difficult endeavor. Lines move to efficiency very quickly and can’t be beaten at -110 by the overwhelming majority of bettors.

However, player props are more beatable. As hardcore fantasy players, we are actually putting more time and thought into player outlooks than the oddsmakers. And since the limits on these player props are typically low, a lot of books don’t mind leaving up some soft lines. It’s essentially advertising to get people into their book. Don’t use player props as a guide for your DFS or season-long selections. Instead, we should be seeking out player props to bet.

Season-long player props are softer than weekly props. Books often don’t account for downside scenarios enough. In other words, over the course of a season, injuries, rest, and benchings all come into play. We can exploit that by leaning heavily toward unders.

The goal of this article isn’t to “tout” picks; it’s to help you develop your own process by showing you ours. You may not be able to get these lines at your book. The general idea is simple: Take a projection you’re confident in and compare it to the available line. After that, the key is to add in our knowledge of player usage to gain a bigger edge.

 

IMPORTANT: In order to get the best lines when we bet these, you must be subscribed to Draft Kit Pro AND be in our subscriber-only Discord with notifications set up correctly. Click here for details.

 

Levitan’s Published Player Prop History
2019 NFL In-Season Player Props: 50-36, +$963
2020 NFL In-Season Player Props: 55-34, +$1,907
2020-21 NBA In-Season Player Props: 111-82, +$1,817
2021 NFL In-Season Player Props: 216-118, +$8,572; 22.1% ROI
2021-22 NBA In-Season Player Props: 751-495, +$20,348; 14% ROI
2022-23 NFL In-Season Player Props: 308-222, +$5,860; 9.5% ROI
2022-23 NBA In-Season Player Props: 700-455, +$18,770; 13.9% ROI
2023-24 NFL In-Season Player Props: 253-225, +$267; 0.48% ROI
2023-24 NBA In-Season Player Props: 656-422, +$17,887; 14.01% ROI (through May 12, 2024)

* Won/lost dollar amount is based on betting to win $100 on each favored prop. And risking $100 on each underdog prop.

 

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