Underdog ADP Disagreements After Pick 100

Drafting the correct structures is important. Player takes are arguably more important.

After my first few hundred drafts of the summer, I’m going to be covering a few of the Underdog ADPs that ETR rankings and I disagree with the most. Like with ADP Disagreements in the Top 100, I’m using a simple Ranking Difference Percentage (RDP): ETR rank divided by Underdog ADP, to quantify the disagreement. An RDP below 100% means ETR is higher on the player than the market, while an RDP above 100% means ETR is lower. For example, Sam LaPorta has an RDP of 86%, suggesting he is roughly 14% undervalued by ADP relative to ETR rankings. Malik Nabers has an RDP of 135%, suggesting he is roughly 35% overvalued. This is not meant to be a perfect measure of value, but it gives us a quick way to identify the biggest disagreements.

Let’s kick off with the players for whom ADP is too low.

ADPs after 100 that are too low

Pat Freiermuth: ETR rank = 168, ADP = 193, RDP = 87%
Michael Pittman Jr.: ETR rank = 101, ADP = 103, RDP = 98%
Germie Bernard: ETR rank = 160, ADP = 183, RDP = 87%

While Aaron Rodgers’ ADP rose significantly following his decision to play another season, the market seemingly hasn’t fully priced it in for the rest of the Pittsburgh offense. As it stands, we are ahead of ADP on nearly every primary Steelers weapon (slightly behind ADP on Jaylen Warren). That has fully flowed over into my exposures so far, as I’m overweight the entire Steelers offense. With the Steelers likely to play more 11 personnel in 2026 with the departure of offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, I expect a more concentrated snap share for their starting weapons. That’s good news for Pat Freiermuth, Michael Pittman Jr., and rookie Germie Bernard. Through 200+ drafts, I’m solidly overweight each.