As Adam points out in his game selection article for DraftKings, most of what you will read about NFL DFS talks about picking the right players and very little about game selection. While this is true, it is also true that game selection is the most important lever that we can pull concerning increasing our ROI.
I would argue that this may be the case on FanDuel more so than DraftKings, particularly when it comes to small-field tournaments, and specifically 3-100 man contests. I say this for a few reasons:
- FanDuel has a dedicated 3-100 man lobby that DraftKings doesn’t offer.
Sure, DK has 3-100 man contests also, but they are overshadowed in the lobby by the large-field GPPs. To find the 3-100 mans on DK, you have to toggle multiple filters (field size, guaranteed/not guaranteed, tournaments, 50/50 & double-ups, etc.). Even after applying some of these filters, you will still find that some non-traditional 3-100 man tourneys are still mixed in on DK. The bottom line here is that the easier these 3-100 man contests are to find, the more they will attract recreational players, as is the case on FanDuel with its 3-100 man lobby.
- All of FanDuel’s contests in the 3-100 man lobby have a maximum of 10% rake!
This has a significant positive impact on our ROI compared to playing other tournaments that charge a 16% rake, for example. Even smaller-field contests on DK, such as triple-ups (12.9% rake at lower stakes) and quintuple-ups (12.28% rake at lower stakes), often charge higher than 10%. Many of DK’s 3-100 man contests are 10% rake also, but unlike FanDuel, we cannot say that all of DK’s 3-100 man contests are a maximum of 10%.
- My own DFS results have led me to conclude that these 3-100 man contests on FanDuel are some of the softest action in the DFS ecosystem.
The picture at the start of this article shows my DFS results (RotoTracker) specifically filtered to FanDuel/NFL/contest entrants of four or more players. While I’ve been fortunate enough to be profitable in multiple DFS contest types/formats/sports, I do consider the types of contests you see in that picture to be my strength and primary focus.
You will notice that I’ve been referencing 3-100 man contests, but the chart is filtered to four entrants or higher. The reason for this is that even though my H2H and 3-man results were still showing a positive ROI in the single digits, it made more sense to focus my bankroll on the contests that I was having more success in. For that reason, I’ve significantly scaled back my volume in H2H and 3-man contests across most sports.
I may still play some H2H and 3-man contests early in the NFL season when the competition is a bit softer. I would recommend that you do the same, particularly until you can track your own results over a decent sample size. Obviously, a H2H or 3-man contest is lower variance than a 100-man or small-field tourney. For this article, though, and given that my area of focus for ETR is small-field tournaments, I’m going to exclude H2Hs from the game selection process discussed later in this article.
Finally, it is hard to overstate just how many recreational players you often see in the 3-100 man lobby on FanDuel. This is true across all sports, but given that the NFL tends to attract more recreational players than other sports, this is especially true.
- It is much easier to realize your equity in 3-100 man fields compared to large-field tournaments.
The entry fees for the 3-100 mans start at $1 and go all the way up to $10,600 in the lobby. Obviously, the higher up in entry fees you go, the less the contests tend to fill.
Below are the payouts for the most common 3-100 man contests (based on $1 entry fee):
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- 100-man contest: top 12 win ($25, $15, $10, $8, $6, $5, $4, $4, $4, $3, $3, $3)
- 20-man contest: top 3 win ($10, $5, $3)
- 10-man contest: top 3 win ($4.50, $2.70, $1.80)
- 5-man contest: winner only ($4.50)
- 3-man contest: winner only ($2.70)
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For the most part, the payout structures above look the same (as far as paying out “x” amount of buy-ins) as you go up in stakes. However, as buy-ins increase, you will notice some of the payout structures are slightly different in some contests, particularly as rake drops below 10%.
The contests listed above are the ones you will most commonly see in the 3-100 man lobby. Sometimes, especially on slates with larger GPP prize pools, you will see some less common contests posted in the 3-100 man lobby (75 mans, 50 mans, 9 mans, 4 mans, etc.). As long as it fits within your bankroll management game plan, I’d recommend playing these as well, as they also tend to be good action.
I get that winning a 20-man contest for 10x your buy-in or a 100-man contest for 25x your buy-in isn’t as sexy as chasing a million-dollar first prize; however, with the former, you actually have a chance to realize your edge in this lifetime, and thus maintain a profitable ROI.
With all of that being said, below is a specific game plan for how I recommend registering the 3-100 man contests on FanDuel each week. The suggestions below apply to the NFL main slate and give you the best opportunity for a positive expectation. I have used smaller buy-ins as the foundation; however, once you have an understanding of the registration process, it can be scaled across different bankrolls, buy-in levels, and slates.
1. Create one lineup that you will use across all of your 3-100 man contests.
- This should not be a pure cash lineup, but it certainly should not be a lineup geared toward large-field tourneys, either. Some correlation is preferred, although not completely mandatory.
- One big mistake in these 3-100 man fields is trying to get too unique and creative. Consider this more of a hybrid build between a cash lineup and a small-field tourney lineup. Just to clarify: This lineup should be closer to a cash build than a medium-sized-field tourney build.
- You still want a highly projected lineup here, but making a few small pivots is enough to get to the top of the leaderboards in these small 3-100 man fields.
2. Registration Process
- Wait until Sunday morning to register, as these contests get softer closer to lock.
- Select “Single entry only” and “Exclude satellites,” and then sort by prizes from the top down
- Move the “Minimum Price” and “Maximum Price” (your buy-in) to $1
- Sort the “Contest type” to 3-100 Players
- Register one of each different game type in the 3-100 man lobby. If the title of the contest or prize pool is different, consider it a different type of contest.
- Toggle the “Contest type” back to “Tournament,” and put the same 3-100 man lineup in any $1 single-entry GPP as well.
3. Registration – Scaling Your Action
- The Registration Process in Step 2 is a basic building block. However, that alone will only come out to about $10 or so in action. Learning how to scale your action in a way that increases your volume while also diversifying your 3-100 man contests is also important. Some of these ideas include:
- Registering on several days throughout the week leading up to lock.
- Registering every contest in the 3-100 man lobby each time you register.
- Unchecking the “Single entry only” box to access the 100 mans that are 3-entry max.
- Increasing your “Maximum Price” as gradually as possible to increase buy-in levels in both the 3-100 man and tournament lobbies.
- If you are trying to increase your volume, be aware that you can get more action than you probably think at the $1 and $2 levels, particularly if you are registering throughout the week and multiple times between Sunday morning and lock. I’d be sure to get as much action as possible at the lower buy-in levels before moving up. This will not only help lower your variance, but it also diversifies the opponents you are playing against.
Final Thoughts:
- Please note that 3-100 mans are still “tournaments.” While they obviously don’t have the variance of a tournament with 200K entrants, they do still have variance. I only point this out so that you are aware that your success in these formats will still come from your spike weeks that have tournament-winning upside, and not from consistently winning every week.
- Related to the last point, I wanted to take a moment to discuss the fact that you are playing one single lineup across all of these 3-100 man contests. In doing so, you are increasing your variance for hopefully a higher long-term ROI (assuming you are profitable, of course). It is important to remember that these 3-100 mans are a hybrid mix when it comes to contest types. In cash games, you obviously play one lineup across all of your contests. In GPPs, it would be insane to mass-enter contests with a single lineup. Although there are players who play these 3-100 man contests with unique lineups as well, I’ve found that entering one single lineup is the most profitable way to attack them.
- Although the focus of this article has largely been about 3-100 mans, I wanted to take a moment to discuss some GPP contests that I also think are a combination of good action and/or good payout structures on FanDuel as well. I’ll list the ones with buy-ins of $50 and under, although there are contests with higher buy-ins in this that have good payout structures as well. Given that I specialize in small-field contests, the ones that I’ll be listing below will be single-entry or 3-max tournaments. If you decide to play some or all of the below contests, I would definitely recommend entering a unique lineup in each of these that is different from our 3-100 man lineup.
- 40K Sun NFL Sweep / $33 single entry / 1,426 entrants / 15% rake / $10K to first
- 35K Sun NFL Hot Route / $50 single entry / 795 entrants / 12% rake / $3.5K to first
- 25K Sun NFL Scramble / $10 single entry / 2,976 entrants / 16% rake / $2.5K to first
- 20K Sun NFL Spike / $5 single entry / 4,761 entrants / 16% rake / $2K to first
- 15K Sun NFL Onside Kick / $15 3 max / 1,176 entrants / 15% rake / $2K to first
- 10K Sun NFL Safety / $2 single entry / 5,952 entrants / 16% rake / $1K to first
- 8K Sun NFL Three And Out / $3 3 max / 3,174 entrants / 16% rake / $1K to first
- Most of what has been discussed in this article is related to the Sunday main slate. However, playing different slates is a great way to attack these 3-100 man contests, lower your variance, and diversify your action. I aim to play any slate with decent action and prize pools, as these are the slates that get the best action in the 3-100 man lobby as well. Some of these slates include 1:00 p.m. only, 4:00 p.m. only, island single-game slates, etc.
