The Buy Leone RB model is a machine learning algorithm that uses a player’s recent opportunities to predict future performances (PPR points per game).
More specifically, the model looks at every carry and target a player has seen over the last six weeks. The model provides an expected fantasy-point outcome for each individual target based on a variety of factors, most importantly:
-Team Scoring Expectation
-Air Yards
-Carries
-Goal-Line Carries
-Down and Distance
-Defenders in the Box
Those expected fantasy points become the primary input into a model that weights recent performance at a higher weight than past performance and incorporates aggregate per-game totals, such as Air Yards, targets, and fantasy points.
Our goal is to have an objective process to find the players whose opportunity has outpaced their actual results. Through that, we’re identifying players with a high likelihood of beating their last three-game average moving forward.
To isolate the most potentially profitable players, we are comparing the Buy Leone model prediction against a player’s rolling three-game fantasy-point average (going back no further than the previous six NFL weeks) and filtering out all players who don’t meet the following criteria:
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