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What is PROE?

PROE stands for Pass Rate Over Expectation. The site nflfastR hosts a repository for play-by-play data going back to 1999, and for each offensive play since 2006, they provide an “xpass”. Xpass is the probability of a called pass play (dropback) on that particular play, and scrambles are counted as a called pass play. This probability is determined by a variety of factors taking into account game context – down, distance, time remaining, yardline, score differential, etc.

A team’s PROE is their actual called pass rate minus their expected pass rate, determined using the xpass of each play. In some ways, this is a better measure of team intent than situation neutral or early down pass rates because we are able to increase the sample size by not excluding plays and account for the granular context of each play.

 

Why is PROE useful?

There are two major factors that determines a team’s future pass rate: Game script and PROE. While game script can be difficult to predict and is volatile, PROE is a bit more stable. Thus, an understanding of each team’s PROE can often be a better indicator of how aggressive they will be in the passing game in the future, since their past actual pass rate may be skewed by volatile or extreme game scripts. Of course, attempting to combine future anticipated game script along with team aggressiveness (PROE) gives us our best chance at predicting a team’s future pass rate, which has plenty of fantasy implications.

 

Below are the following tables:

  • Season PROE (a team’s PROE on all plays over the course of the season)
  • Last 4 PROE (a team’s PROE on all plays over the last 4 weeks of the NFL season)
  • Red Zone PROE (a team’s PROE on red zone plays over the course of the season)

Red Zone PROE can be helpful in predicting a team’s future pass:rush TD ratio, but keep in mind the sample sizes are much smaller when looking at only these plays.

 

Season PROE

TeamPass RateExpected Pass RatePROE
ARI0.66095888610.6692536473-0.008294761181
ATL0.48728814720.5684874058-0.08119925857
BAL0.5956521630.55756473540.03808742762
BUF0.70181816820.57526522870.1265529394
CAR0.6261682510.60838717220.01778107882
CHI0.45205479860.6237939-0.1717391014
CIN0.63448274140.61487197880.0196107626
CLE0.50177937750.5853835344-0.08360415697
DAL0.57676351070.6297956109-0.0530321002
DEN0.61133605240.636049211-0.02471315861
DET0.59851300720.6234116554-0.02489864826
GB0.55984556670.5905051231-0.03065955639
HOU0.64978903530.62230908870.02747994661
IND0.64074075220.6762842536-0.03554350138
JAX0.56800001860.5686597228-0.0006597042084
KC0.62645912170.51220393180.1142551899
LA0.6457142830.61158794160.03412634134
LAC0.65151512620.60067832470.05083680153
LV0.667968750.65065526960.01731348038
MIA0.6519823670.60832303760.04365932941
MIN0.65748029950.63045889140.02702140808
NE0.56431537870.6130878925-0.04877251387
NO0.65163934230.6871385574-0.03549921513
NYG0.56250.6168222427-0.05432224274
NYJ0.71280276780.7305516601-0.01774889231
PHI0.53333336110.5557737947-0.0224404335
PIT0.61538463830.6334326267-0.01804798841
SEA0.62280702590.61351114510.009295880795
SF0.48677247760.6168009639-0.1300284863
TB0.66122448440.63007682560.03114765882
TEN0.53393667940.5711390376-0.03720235825
WAS0.68989545110.68188005690.008015394211

 

 

Red Zone PROE

TeamPass RateExpected Pass RatePROE
ARI60.9%70.2%-9.3%
ATL40.5%59.5%-19.0%
BAL57.1%48.9%8.2%
BUF62.7%48.7%14.1%
CAR65.2%72.2%-7.0%
CHI19.4%50.4%-31.0%
CIN58.1%59.3%-1.2%
CLE41.5%56.8%-15.2%
DAL56.5%56.8%-0.3%
DEN71.9%61.4%10.4%
DET57.5%55.7%1.8%
GB56.8%57.8%-1.1%
HOU43.5%47.9%-4.4%
IND61.5%68.1%-6.6%
JAX54.9%53.5%1.4%
KC64.3%42.4%21.9%
LA58.8%56.2%2.6%
LAC70.0%58.8%11.2%
LV67.9%64.2%3.7%
MIA63.3%56.1%7.3%
MIN75.0%60.3%14.7%
NE53.6%52.6%1.0%
NO67.9%66.7%1.2%
NYG43.5%52.2%-8.8%
NYJ72.5%79.7%-7.2%
PHI43.1%57.9%-14.7%
PIT36.4%47.9%-11.5%
SEA60.0%55.9%4.1%
SF25.0%47.6%-22.6%
TB69.2%63.6%5.7%
TEN57.1%41.9%15.2%
WAS68.4%70.2%-1.7%