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Every year, our Adam Levitan writes a guide to DFS game selection. Last year’s version began with the following assertion:

At least 90% of the analysis you’ll read about NFL DFS discusses picking the right players. Almost all of it will ignore game selection.

In best ball, roster construction analysis rivals player selection, but game selection is similarly ignored, even though there are drastic differences between contests (even contests on the same site!).

Perhaps game selection is under-discussed because there’s no one-size-fits-all answer, as everyone’s goals and bankroll are different. Some people view best ball as a profit-creating endeavor where the sole goal is to grind out as much expected value as possible. Others — I suspect the majority — play for the fun of drafting and hope they make some money along the way. We can’t tell you exactly what contests to enter because we don’t know how many drafts you want to do or how much money you’re willing to invest. Instead of a true “Here’s what you need to do” definitive guide, we’ll highlight the differences between best ball cash games and tournaments on DraftKings before diving deeper into the individual tournaments currently offered on DK and what we’d do if we had $500 vs. $2,000 vs. a larger bankroll to use on best ball with eyes on being a profitable player.

 

CASH GAMES VS. TOURNAMENTS

Most best ball analysis centers around tournaments, and it’s by far the most popular way to play. Still, there is a subset of people who prefer to play cash games (or sit-n-go’s, as they’re referred to on the DK site).

On average, cash games have lower rake than tournaments. The $1 12-person leagues charge 10% rake, while the $1,060 leagues are all the way down at 5.7%. As you’ll see in the next section, this is significantly better than the average tournament (though the high-stakes tournaments also have pretty low rake). If you are an average player, you will lose less money playing cash games as opposed to tournaments.

With that being said, you are trading that higher mean outcome for a significantly lower earnings ceiling. The flagship DK tourney is offering $3 million to first place. Considering you’re tying up entry fees for four months at minimum, many people prefer the upside of life-changing money vs. a few percentage points of lower rake.

We’re mostly going to focus on tournaments today, but it’s important to keep cash games in mind, too. If you don’t like the possibility of losing the majority of your entry fees despite +EV play, it might be a better idea to stick with cash games from a mental perspective. For cash games, remember that much of the analysis you’ll read about optimizing for later weeks and game-stacking playoff games is irrelevant. Stacking, while still preferable given the correlation between a QB and his pass catchers for an entire season, becomes much less of a priority.

 

A BIRD’S-EYE VIEW OF ALL DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENTS

First, let’s summarize each DK tournament by entry fee, grand prize, rake percentage, and advancement structure.

 

Tournament Name Entry Fee Max Entries Contest Size Grand Prize Pool Size in Final Week Rake Advancement Structure
$20M Millionaire $25 150 940,896 $3,000,000 1,089 15.0% Top 2/12 advance in Weeks 1–14, top 1/12 in Week 15, top 1/12 in Week 16, 1,089-player pool in Week 17
$5M Monster Millionaire $555 150 9,984 $1,000,000 52 9.8% Top 2/12 advance in Weeks 1–14, top 2/8 in Week 15, top 1/8 in Week 16, 52-player pool in Week 17
$1M Play-Action $3 20 395,712 $100,000 458 15.8% Top 2/12 advance in Weeks 1–14, top 1/12 in Week 15, top 1/12 in Week 16, 458-player pool in Week 17
$500K Strong Side $59 150 9,504 $100,000 22 10.8% Top 2/12 advance in Weeks 1–14, top 2/12 in Week 15, top 1/12 in Week 16, 22-player pool in Week 17
$400K Chain-Mover $10 10 46,656 $100,000 54 14.3% Top 2/12 advance in Weeks 1–14, top 1/12 in Week 15, top 1/12 in Week 16, 54-player pool in Week 17
$500K Hot Route $100 3 5,520 $100,000 23 9.4% Top 2/12 advance in Weeks 1–14, top 2/10 in Week 15, top 1/8 in Week 16, 23-player pool in Week 17
$300K Button Hook $9 3 38,880 $30,000 45 14.3% Top 2/12 advance in Weeks 1–14, top 1/12 in Week 15, top 1/12 in Week 16, 45-player pool in Week 17
$200K Pocket Passer $250 1 864 $30,000 8 7.4% Top 2/12 advance in Weeks 1–14, top 2/6 in Week 15, top 1/6 in Week 16, 8-player pool in Week 17
$200K Bubble Screen $15 1 15,552 $50,000 18 14.3% Top 2/12 advance in Weeks 1–14, top 1/12 in Week 15, top 1/12 in Week 16, 18-player pool in Week 17
$432K Luxury Box $3,180 4 144 $150,000 3 5.7% Top 2/12 advance in Weeks 1–14, top 2/8 in Week 15, top 3/6 in Week 16, 3-player pool in Week 17
$150K Huddle $5 1 35,424 $15,000 82 15.3% Top 2/12 advance in Weeks 1–14, top 2/12 in Week 15, top 1/12 in Week 16, 82-player pool in Week 17
$30K Tuddy IX $7 5 5,040 $5,000 14 15.0% Top 2/12 advance in Weeks 1–14, top 2/12 in Week 15, top 1/10 in Week 16, 14-player pool in Week 17
$30K Tuddy X $7 5 5,040 $5,000 14 15.0% Top 2/12 advance in Weeks 1–14, top 2/12 in Week 15, top 1/10 in Week 16, 14-player pool in Week 17

 

We unsurprisingly see decreased rake at higher stakes, just like DK does for DFS. And keep in mind that for the cheapest tournaments, you’re paying about 50% more rake compared to cash games.

 

IF YOU WANT TO PLAY $500 PER SEASON IN DRAFTKINGS BEST BALL

I’ll note once again that this is an imperfect exercise because each person has different goals volume-wise. We’re giving a reasonable entry strategy for someone looking to enter a reasonable number of drafts while minimizing rake and exposing themselves to high-end outcomes/life-changing money, but it’s unlikely this exact game selection rollout works perfectly for everyone, so feel free to adjust based on your own preferences.

  1. Enter the Hot Route two times. Total $200. These two drafts take up 40% of your budget, but it’s a better strategy than spamming Millionaire Makers to hit $500. The Hot Route has just 9.4% rake with a 23-person final pool. The advancement structure is friendly too, with 2/10 advancing from Week 15 and 1/8 in Week 16.
  2. Enter the Strong Side once. Total $59. The Strong Side similarly has relatively low rake — just 10.8% — and a small final pool (22 people). It has a more standard advancement structure with 2/12 advancing in Week 15 and 1/12 in Week 16, plus the $59 price point makes it an odd fit with a $500 budget, but prioritizing the low rake with a still-solid $100,000 up top is sensible.
  3. Enter the Chain-Mover 10 times. Total $100. The Chain-Mover is a 10-entry max tournament. The rake is higher at 14.3%, which makes sense given the $10 price point, but it’s a better dart throw than some of the truly massive contests, considering it only has 46,700 entries and a 54-person final pool.
  4. Enter the Button Hook three times. Total $27. Another contest we’re maxing. The Button Hook’s rake is 14.3%, but avoiding high-rake contests is unavoidable with a $500 bankroll if you want a decent number of drafts. This contest has a 45-person final pool.
  5. Enter the Bubble Screen once. Total $15. The Bubble Screen is single-entry and has $50,000 up top with an 18-person final pool.
  6. Enter the Millionaire three times. Total $75. Of course, everybody wants to be a millionaire, so we’ll take a few stabs at the $3 million grand prize. This is not a user-friendly contest beyond the grand prize: It has 15.0% rake, a 1,089-person Week 17 pool, and nearly a million participants in total, but the upside is unmatched by any other current best ball contest posted (on any platform).
  7. Enter the Tuddy three times. Total $21. The Tuddy has higher rake at 15.0%, but it’s a cheap contest at $7, and there are only 14 participants in the final week. The $5,000 grand prize is nothing special, but it’s a cheap contest you can use to get more drafts in.
  8. Enter the Play-Action once. Total $3. We have three dollars left. This isn’t a great contest by any means, with 15.8% rake (the highest of any contest) and a 456-person final week, but it does have a $100,000 grand prize from a $3 price point.

 

IF YOU WANT TO PLAY $2,000 PER SEASON IN DRAFTKINGS BEST BALL

  1. Enter the Monster Millionaire one time. Total $555. It’s the second-priciest contest on the board, but it’s also one of two contests that can turn you into a millionaire. Plus, the Monster Milly has a strong 9.8% rake with only a 52-person final pool.
  2. Enter the Pocket Passer once. Total $250. The Pocket Passer is a smaller, single-entry contest with only 864 total participants, but it only has 7.4% rake with a measly eight-person Week 17 group.
  3. Enter the Hot Route three times. Total $300. The logic here is the same as it was with $500, only now you can max-enter. The Hot Route has an affordable 9.4% rake with a 23-person final group and $100,000 up top.
  4. Enter the Strong Side six times. Total $354. As you can see, having a larger bankroll allows you more exposure to lower-rake contests. The Strong Side has a doable 10.8% rake with a 22-person final group and a six-figure grand prize.
  5. Enter the Chain-Mover 10 times. Total $100. Unless you want minimal volume, unfortunately, you will still have some higher-rake contests in your arsenal. The Chain-Mover is up at 14.3% rake, but we can max it out with 10 entries.
  6. Enter the Button Hook three times. Total $27. We’ll also max the Button Hook, which has 14.3% rake and a 23-person final group. The $30,000 grand prize is nothing crazy, but it’s fine given the low entry fee and the smaller contest size (38,900 entries).
  7. Enter the Bubble Screen once. Total $15. The Bubble Screen is a single-entry contest with relatively high rake (14.3%), but there are only 15,552 entrants and a worthwhile $50,000 grand prize.
  8. Enter the Millionaire 15 times. Total $375. As mentioned previously, the flagship contest has high rake at 15.0% and is essentially a lottery with nearly a million entries, but it’s a fun contest with life-changing money at the top.
  9. Enter the Play-Action eight times. Total $24. Again, we use the Play-Action to get to $2,000 exactly. Still, the Play-Action isn’t a particularly enticing contest with 15.8% rake, the highest on the board currently.

 

NOTE: The above is specific to DraftKings and NFL. But the principles outlined can be applied to any site or any sport:

  1. Be rake-conscious and seek out the smallest rake.
  2. Understand advancement structure and adjust your strategy as it pertains to the tournament weeks (Weeks 15-17).
  3. Examine the payout structure and understand what it means for correlation strategy.