Draft time is upon us. Your fantasy football draft strategy is obviously heavily dependent on what pick you have. In this article, we’ll dig into what we think is the optimal strategy if you have a late pick in the first round. For this article, we will use FantasyPros half-PPR ADP, though we understand many home leagues will not play out like this, and we’ll try to talk through multiple ways your draft could play out.
ROUND 1 AND 2 STRATEGY
Bad news first: If you have a late pick, you obviously miss out on the mega-studs like Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson, as well as the top-tier WRs including Puka Nacua, Ja’Marr Chase, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. If things break right for those guys, the players at the bottom of Round 1 likely won’t be able to match their ceiling. Christian McCaffrey is also likely to be gone.
Good news: You get two players in the top ~15, and it certainly feels like there’s a tier drop in the early to mid-second round this year. If you pick late, you are one of only a few teams in your league to double-tap before that tier breaks.
If Jonathan Taylor makes it to the final four picks of Round 1, he likely won’t last beyond the ninth or 10th pick. Taylor averaged 5.7 yards per carry on 18.8 carries per game along with 15 rushing scores in 12 games before Daniel Jones got hurt last season. He also posted a career-high 55 targets, and the Colts made minimal effort to add any complementary pieces to the backfield this offseason. Reports on Jones have been superb all offseason; if he’s healthy and Indianapolis can get back to offensive competency after struggling down the stretch last season, Taylor has an overall RB1 ceiling. He’s not going to come off the field, and he’s one of the most talented RBs in football.
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