Reynolds: Rookie of the Year Awards Analysis

Now that the NFL Draft is in the books, we’ll give you an overview of both the Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year races, while providing a few value options. We’ll revisit all awards markets after the schedule release in May.

Offensive Rookie of the Year Overview

On the surface, this looks like a standard OROY variety pack at the top of this race with your first overall pick, quarterback Fernando Mendoza (+350 DraftKings), No. 3 overall pick, running back Jeremiyah Love (+325 Caesars), and wide receiver Carnell Tate (+500 to +750 Fanatics) taken fourth overall.

That said, the Raiders signed Kirk Cousins this offseason, so it would be no surprise if Mendoza was not the starter on Opening Day, which gives me zero interest in betting on him now at short odds. My approach for Mendoza will be to wait for the schedule release, identify the natural insertion points, and hope for an offseason odds dip, because a rookie quarterback could sit the first few games and still end up winning this award.

I find it curious that the Cardinals have adopted the Dave Gettleman approach to team building, which I mention because Saquon Barkley did win the OROY when New York selected him second overall despite having a Day 1 rebuild roster, as Arizona does. Despite that clear parallel, Love’s rookie situation has more in common with Bijan Robinson’s first year in Atlanta, as right now, Arizona not only has Robinson’s former teammate, Tyler Allgeier, in their running back room, but veteran James Conner and Trey Benson as well. That’s a pretty crowded backfield, especially for a bad team like Arizona. It would not be a surprise if Love is part of some gruesome early-year running back rotation.