Reynolds: Preseason MVP Analysis

Every August, we dive into who wins NFL awards and why, because who we think should win an award does not matter. Knowing who voters vote for and why is where we have an edge.

MVP Trends

• Every NFL MVP since 2013 has been a quarterback
• All but four of those quarterbacks played for the top seed in their conference
• Last year’s winner, Matthew Stafford (12-5), and 2025’s winner, Josh Allen (13-4), are two of those four who did not play for their conference’s top-seeded team
• In 2014, MVP Aaron Rodgers’ Packers were the No. 2 seed, but tied for the NFC’s best record
• In 2016, MVP Matt Ryan’s Falcons were the NFC’s No. 2 seed, with an 11-5 record
• Ryan is the only MVP winner since 2013 whose team finished with fewer than 12 wins
• Stafford is the only MVP winner during this span to headline a team that wasn’t a No. 1 or No. 2 seed
• Since 2007, running back Adrian Peterson is the only non-quarterback to win the NFL MVP
• During that span, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Patrick Mahomes, Rodgers, and Lamar Jackson each won multiple MVPs
• Brady and Manning each won three MVPs during that span, while Rodgers won four
• Rodgers is the only back-to-back MVP winner during that span
• Rodgers, Mahomes, and Jackson have collectively won six of the last eight MVPs
• Along with team success, high rankings in touchdowns, QBR, Rating, and EPA have been the most consistent statistical indicators among recent MVP winners
• EPA per play has been a more consistent indicator than total EPA, but both have been relevant factors
• Since 2013, Cam Newton, Allen, and Jackson’s win in 2023 were the only MVP winners to fall outside the top three in Rating
• Newton and Jackson are the only two during that span to fall outside the top three in QBR among qualifying candidates (Stafford was technically fourth last year, but Brock Purdy (second) only played in nine games)
• Six MVP winners with Opening Day odds of +3000 or greater have won the NFL MVP since 2013, including six of the last 11, which includes last year’s winner, Stafford

Ultimately, whenever considering an MVP quarterback option, I ask myself two questions:

• Can this player’s team finish the year as the No. 1 seed in their conference?
• Can this player headline the league’s best, most productive offense?

If I can’t answer “yes” to at least one of those questions, that player is a pass for me.

Key Takeaways from the 2024 and 2025 MVP Races

Each of the last two years saw very close races, with legacy serving as a meaningful tiebreaker in both.

Josh Allen winning the 2024 MVP over the more productive Lamar Jackson suggested that several voters didn’t want Jackson winning a third MVP, given his poor postseason career to date, before Allen won his first. Team success was also in Allen’s favor, and that has been a major factor for MVP voters since I began tracking awards races in 2009. Ultimately, legacy looked like the tiebreaker for several voters, and rightfully so.

Last year, legacy definitely helped end-of-the-road veteran Matthew Stafford overcome second-year quarterback Drake Maye in a very tight MVP race, especially considering that the 12-5 Rams were the No. 5 seed in the NFC, while 14-3 New England was the No. 2 seed in the AFC. Los Angeles’ 12-5 record was good enough to “qualify” when compared to recent MVP winners, but Stafford was the first quarterback to win the MVP as less than a No. 2 seed in their respective conference since I’ve been seriously tracking these markets.