I play around 60% of my action each week in “cash games.” Cash games refer to any contest in which roughly 50% of the field gets paid out, such as head-to-head, double up or 50/50. I try to get as much head-to-head action as I can every week and then supplement that with other cash games.
Each week, I’ll review my cash-game lineup in this space. Sometimes I’ll lose, but hopefully I’ll win more often. Either way, I’ll post it here and give you my thought process.
This was my kind of slate on both sites. We had cheap QB options, cheap TE options, and four very strong RB plays. I thought the slate would come down to picking the right three WRs.
Note: Unless stated otherwise, the discussion below is about DraftKings.
MY MUST PLAYS
* Jahmyr Gibbs was priced as if David Montgomery was playing. However Montgomery (knee) was out, allowing Gibbs the full three-down plus goal-line role. We projected Gibbs, a truly freakish talent, for 24.1 DK points – one of our biggest RB projections of the season.
* James Conner has been the Cardinals’ best offensive player all season. Now he had the best possible matchup for RBs (Panthers), per our DvP metrics. On top of that, the Cardinals were fighting for their playoff life and Trey Benson + Emari Demercado were out. The $7100 tag was far too cheap.
* I didn’t think Brenton Strange was the best play in the world. We only had Mac Jones for 32.3 pass attempts here, and Strange’s yards per target expectation is just as poor as Evan Engram’s was. However, given the context of the slate I thought Strange was a must. When we have a viable $3500 tight end and three extremely strong RBs to jam in, I try not to question it. The tight end position floor/ceiling combos are simply too weak to spend up in these contexts.
MY WANT PLAYS
* The last RB spot came down to Chase Brown ($7700) or Chuba Hubbard ($6800). Both were extremely strong plays who projected for 90% or more of the snaps. I looked at what I could get by going down to Chuba, and decided that getting to something like Malik Nabers or a better defense wasn’t worth it. I also knew I was playing Chuba on FanDuel, creating a bit of a hedge across sites.
* I only considered two QBs on this slate: Michael Penix or Anthony Richardson. My initial expectation was an extremely run-heavy approach from the Falcons against the hapless Giants. And without a real rushing expectation for Penix, you can see how it goes bad.
But in the end, I thought a $4500 quarterback on a team expected to control the game in a dome against one of the league’s worst defenses with quality weaponry was tough to pass on. And given how weak quarterback was on this slate overall, I was confident the position wouldn’t run away from me.
* I considered combinations of literally seven different wide receivers for three spots: Keenan Allen, DK Metcalf, DJ Moore, Jakobi Meyers, Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas. I had a really, really hard time parsing between them.
BTJ was my favorite, but also the most expensive. I thought Moore was the safest thanks to the screens and quick-hitters against a struggling Lions defense. Meyers had the best raw matchup against the Jags. Metcalf was the cheapest he’s ever been against a blitz-happy Vikings team that can give up big plays to wideouts. I decided to go with the middle three that fit the cleanest, and pray.
* I thought both Bills D/ST and Falcons D/ST were extremely strong. But I preferred spending more on the WR spot than defense. So I settled for the sub-$3k defense that projected best for us: Raiders against Mac Jones. It made it easier to not get up at defense on DraftKings since I knew I was playing Falcons on FanDuel.
Week 16 Results
James Conner was on his way to 40+ points, but left early with an injury. That hurt, as he was only 66% owned in DraftKings’ massive $25 single entry Double Up, for example. Chase Brown also failed on two goal-line chances, crippling his day. Keenan Allen smoked DJ Moore. And Anthony Richardson smoked Michael Penix. Given all that, I’m happy to emerge with a breakeven day on DraftKings.
As for FanDuel, I was happy with the decision not to pay up at tight end (Trey McBride), which allowed me to play Chuba Hubbard over Patrick Taylor. And the decision to consider the Falcons D/ST a must paid off massively.
YEAR-TO-DATE RESULTS
Week 1 DraftKings: 147.38 points, won 98.6% of head-to-heads
Week 2 DraftKings: 116.94 points, won 21.1% of head-to-heads
Week 3 DraftKings: 109.3 points, won 54.8% of head-to-heads
Week 4 DraftKings: 146.28 points, won 75.3% of head-to-heads
Week 5 DraftKings: 143.06 points, won 83.5% of head-to-heads
Week 6 DraftKings: 134.12 points, won 50.1% of head-to-heads
Week 7 DraftKings: 93.14 points, won 28.2% of head-to-heads
Week 8 DraftKings: 173.16 points, won 96.3% of head-to-heads
Week 9 DraftKings: 170.86 points, won 65.2% of head-to-heads
Week 10 DraftKings: 117.92 points, won 66.1% of head-to-heads
Week 11 DraftKings: 133.00 points, won 81.5% of head-to-heads
Week 12 DraftKings: 145.08 points, won 77.8% of head-to-heads
Week 13 DraftKings: 116.88 points, won 10.5% of head-to-heads
Week 14 DraftKings: 201.38 points, won 93.1% of head-to-heads
Week 15 DraftKings: Did not play
Week 16 DraftKings: 123.28 points, won 31.4% of head-to-heads
Week 1 FanDuel: Did not play
Week 2 FanDuel: 143.24 points, won 75.2% of head-to-heads
Week 3 FanDuel: 111.88 points, won 71.9% of head-to-heads
Week 4 FanDuel: 120.92 points, won 41.9% of head-to-heads
Week 5 FanDuel: 130.22 points, won 71.4% of head-to-heads
Week 6 FanDuel: 133.36 points, won 80.6% of head-to-heads
Week 7 FanDuel: 100.04 points, won 65.0% of head-to-heads
Week 8 FanDuel: 122.36 points, won 70.4% of head-to-heads
Week 9 FanDuel: 132.1 points, won 52.0% of head-to-heads
Week 10 FanDuel: 108.82 ponts, won 60.9% of head-to-heads
Week 11 FanDuel: 112.58 points, won 29.0% of head-to-heads
Week 12 FanDuel: 120.56 points, won 47.8% of head-to-heads
Week 13 FanDuel: 136.2 points, won 89.4% of head-to-heads
Week 14 FanDuel: 186.08 points, won 71.4% of head-to-heads
Week 15 FanDuel: Did not play
Week 16 FanDuel: 151.38 points, won 90.5% of head-to-heads
* Note: Win percentages do not include ties.
