Betting into an extremely liquid market such as NFL sides and totals is a very difficult endeavor. Lines move to efficiency very quickly and can’t be beat at -110 by the overwhelming majority of bettors.
However, player props are extremely beatable. As hardcore fantasy players, we are actually putting more time and thought into player outlooks than the oddsmakers. And since the limits on these player props are typically low, a lot of books don’t mind leaving up some soft lines. It’s essentially advertising to get people into their book. Don’t use player props as a guide for your DFS or season-long selections. Instead, we should be seeking out soft player props to bet.
IMPORTANT: The lines for the bets you see below will almost certainly be gone. In order to get the lines as we release them, you must be subscribed to our Props Package and be connected on our subscriber-only Telegram channel.
Levitan’s Published Player Prop History
2019 NFL In-Season Record: 50-36, +$963
2020 NFL In-Season Record: 55-34, +$1,907
2020-21 NBA In-Season Record: 111-82, +$1,817
2021 NFL In-Season Record: 216-118: +$8,572
2021-22 NBA In-Season Record: 751-495, +$20,348
* Won/lost dollar amount is based on betting to win $100 on each favored prop. And risking $100 on each underdog prop.
1. Matthew Stafford completions
Line: 25.5 completions
Mean Projection: 23.2 completions
Book: Caesar’s (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-135)
Date: September 2, 9:32am ET
Notes: A straight projection bet. Note that we suspect the Stafford lines could move back up closer to kick — it’s something to keep an eye on in these high-profile national TV island games.
2. Dawson Knox receiving yards
Line: 39.5 yards
Mean Projection: 37.5 yards
Book: FanDuel & PointsBet (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-114)
Date: September 2, 11:34am ET
Notes: Tight end unders are historically strong plays. We suspect Knox’s role in the offense is a bit overstated by the books.
3. Cam Akers rush plus receiving yards
Line: 53.5 yards
Mean Projection: 66.7 yards
Book: Caesar’s (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (+118)
Date: September 3, 3:10pm ET
Notes: We are projecting a near-even split with Darrell Henderson, and are still showing a sizable Akers over.
4. David Montgomery rushing yards
Line: 60.5 yards
Mean Projection: 55.3 yards
Book: DraftKings & Caesar’s (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: September 5, 11:00am ET
Notes: We expect Khalil Herbert to mix in a reasonable amount, but this is a big line for any RB that’s. a 7-point dog.
5. Cole Kmet receptions
Line: 3.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 3.8 receptions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (+130)
Date: September 5, 1:00pm ET
Notes: We’re expecting a negative game script for the Bears, and Kmet to have the second highest target share. We don’t need efficiency, only volume, to win this bet, so we like it at plus money.
6. Nick Chubb rushing yards
Line: 81.5 yards
Mean Projection: 73.5 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-130)
Date: September 5, 3:26pm ET
Notes: Chubb is an efficiency monster, but it’s still a split backfield in Cleveland with Kareem Hunt and potentially even D’Ernest Johnson.
7. Patrick Mahomes passing yards
Line: 305.5 yards
Mean Projection: 297.5 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: September 5, 4:39pm ET
Notes: Mahomes is unbelievable, but this is a big number and his receiving corps has far more questions than it has in past seasons.
8. Isaiah McKenzie receiving yards
Line: 22.5 yards
Mean Projection: 36.8 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-115)
Date: September 5, 9:13pm ET
Notes: Camp reports indicate McKenzie has the slot role locked down. While he has been dealing with a minor injury lately, he was at practice on Monday.
9. Chase Edmonds rushing yards
Line: 48.5 yards
Mean Projection: 45.4 yards
Book: Caesars (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (+108)
Date: September 5, 10:39pm ET
Notes: Edmonds will almost certainly split early-down work with Raheem Mostert.
10. Elijah Mitchell carries
Line: 16.5 carries
Mean Projection: 15.2 carries
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-135)
Date: September 6, 8:44am ET
Notes: Mitchell has more competition for work with a rushing QB at the helm, and dealt with a hamstring injury for much of the pre-season.
11. Cooper Kupp receptions
Line: 7.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 7.4 receptions
Book: FanDuel & DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (+116)
Date: September 6, 10:48am ET
Notes: Not much of a projection gap on this one, but given the odds (+116) and the expected value of betting unders, we didn’t want to pass on this Kupp line as the public is likely hammering Kupp overs following his historic season.
12. Elijah Mitchell receptions
Line: 1.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 1.4 receptions
Book: MGM (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-105)
Date: September 6, 12:36pm ET
Notes: Similar reasoning as the first Mitchell bet. Rushing QBs typically check-down less to RBs, and Jeff Wilson figures to play on third downs.
13. Jonathan Taylor receiving yards
Line: 9.5 yards
Mean Projection: 19.8 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-120)
Date: September 6, 4:36pm ET
Notes: We typically don’t love betting receiving overs on running backs, but this line opened too low for Taylor’s expected pass game role with Matt Ryan at the helm. Taylor proved he could play in the passing game last year, averaging 21.2 receiving yards per game.
14. Darrell Henderson receptions
Line: 2.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 2.2 receptions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-135)
Date: September 6, 5:58pm ET
Notes: We’re expecting close to at 50/50 split in Week 1 between Cam Akers and Henderson, with Henderson as the favorite to be the pass down back. Even with that projected split, we come in under his receptions line and have added downside to his role if Akers assumes more work than we’re anticipating.
15. Dameon Pierce rushing yards
Line: 41.5 yards
Mean Projection: 60.3 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-115)
Date: September 6, 9:55pm ET
Notes: A pure projection bet as Pierce appears set to lead the Houston backfield in rushing. We’re skeptical of his pass-game and third-down role, but are confident he’ll get the first crack at rushing opportunities against the Colts.
16. Ryan Tannehill pass attempts
Line: 27.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 30.2 attempts
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-105)
Date: September 7, 8:53am ET
Notes: Tennessee has traditionally been extremely run-heavy, but the market is over-accounting for their ideal game script here.
17. CeeDee Lamb receptions
Line: 6.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 5.6 receptions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-145)
Date: September 7, 8:56am ET
Notes: This game has a chance to be pretty sloppy, and we are expecting Dallas to be a little more run-heavy early in the season without Michael Gallup.
18. Travis Etienne receiving yards
Line: 24.5 receiving yards
Mean Projection: 23.4 receiving yards
Book: Caesars (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (+104)
Date: September 7, 9:04am ET
Notes: We believe James Robinson will factor into the pass game more than the market expects.
19. Derrick Henry rushing yards
Line: 105.5 rushing yards
Mean Projection: 104.6 rushing yards
Book: MGM (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-110)
Date: September 7, 9:28am ET
Notes: Just a massive number for any RB, and we believe Tennessee’s offense will struggle more than last year.
20. Josh Reynolds receiving yards
Line: 33.5 yards
Mean Projection: 28.9 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: September 7, 10:43am ET
Notes: Reynolds should play in three wide receiver sets, but is fifth in line for targets when factoring in D’Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson’s role in the passing game.
21. Cordarrelle Patterson receiving yards
Line: 16.5 yards
Mean Projection: 30.7 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-110)
Date: September 7, 12:25pm ET
Notes: Patterson hit this nine times in 16 games last year, and we believe there is more opportunity for him to see time at wideout given Atlanta’s limitations there.
22. Clyde Edwards-Helaire rushing yards
Line: 40.5 yards
Mean Projection: 55.0 yards
Book: Caesars (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-103)
Date: September 7, 1:03pm ET
Notes: We believe the market is over-reacting to some of the season-long FUD on CEH. Went over this number 7/12 times last season including playoffs.
23. Leonard Fournette rush attempts
Line: 12.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 15.0 attempts
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (+100)
Date: September 7, 3:32pm ET
Notes: Fournette remains the unquestioned early-down back in Tampa. Even with Tampa Bay projected for the highest pass rate of any team in Week 1, we still showed a solid over here, and think Tampa could be slightly run-heavier early on as the wide receiver group gets healthy and on the same page as Tom Brady.
24. Ja’Marr Chase receptions
Line: 5.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 5.5 receptions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (+115)
Date: September 7, 3:51pm ET
Notes: Although Chase is a first-round draft pick in fantasy this season, his upside comes from the deep passing game, hyper-efficiency due to his talent, and his ability to score touchdowns. Overall, he’s not a volume king at receiver and we showed strong value on the under given the plus-money odds.
25. Cordarrelle Patterson rushing attempts
Line: 10.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 9.3 attempts
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-105)
Date: September 7, 4:10pm ET
Notes: The Falcons should have three backs mixing in on the rushing game, and we’re expecting Patterson to have the biggest role in the passing game of the three.
26. Jalen Tolbert receptions
Line: 2.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 2.2 receptions
Book: DraftKings & Caesars (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (+120)
Date: September 7, 6:10pm ET
Notes: Tolbert is the projected WR3 to start the season in Dallas and could even be 5th or 6th in line for targets when we include Dalton Schultz and the running backs. This was an easy bet given our projection comes in under the line and we got plus-money odds.
27. Noah Fant receiving yards
Line: 34.5 yards
Mean Projection: 32.6 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: September 7, 6:40pm ET
Notes: There’s a real chance Fant gets out-snapped in Week 1 by fellow tight end Will Dissly while playing in one of the lowest volume offenses in the league. We think the books are overrating Fant’s Week 1 role and opportunity in Seattle’s offense.
28. Leonard Fournette receiving yards
Line: 35.5 yards
Mean Projection: 33.1 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: September 8, 12:30am ET
Notes: This is a lot of yards for a running back, especially one whose pass game role is at least somewhat threatened by Rachaad White.
29. Dak Prescott pass plus rush yards
Line: 289.5 yards
Mean Projection: 273 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: September 8, 9:22am ET
Notes: This game could get sloppy, and Prescott will be without Michael Gallup. He also did not run much last season, which could become a trend.
30. Marcus Mariota rushing yards
Line: 28.5 yards
Mean Projection: 25.1 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: September 8, 2:00pm ET
Notes: Mariota is pretty mobile, but this is a big number and we think he’ll be more in the 20s rather than flirting with 30 yards on the ground.
31. Cam Akers rush attempts
Line: 12.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 10.6 attempts
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-102)
Date: September 8, 3:21pm ET
Notes: It appears the Rams will run out all three backs tonight in Akers, Darrell Henderson, and rookie Kyren Williams, likely spreading out the carries among all three.
32. Clyde Edwards-Helaire receptions
Line: 2.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 2.0 receptions
Book: MGM (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-130)
Date: September 9, 9:27am ET
Notes: CEH was taken off the field in passing downs during the pre-season, indicating he could be more of an early-down grinder this year for KC.
33. Sterling Shepard receiving yards
Line: 39.5 yards
Mean Projection: 35.4 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: September 9, 4:52pm ET
Notes: Nine months removed from an Achilles tear, Shepard looks poised to play in Week 1, but asking for 40 yards is a lot given the injury he’s coming back from.
34. Gerald Everett receptions
Line: 2.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 3.8 receptions
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-138)
Date: September 10, 2:35pm ET
Notes: Donald Parham is out for the Chargers, further cementing Everett’s role as TE1 in this offense.
35. Skyy Moore receiving yards
Line: 25.5 receiving yards
Mean Projection: 21.1 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: September 11, 8:57am ET
Notes: Skyy was at best the WR4 for KC in preseason, and played behind Justin Watson in Week 3.
36. Cam Brate receiving yards
Line: 28.5 receiving yards
Mean Projection: 24.8 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-110)
Date: September 11, 7:30pm ET
Notes: The dad-running Brate is no Rob Gronkowski. We expect him to rotate with other dusty TEs on the Bucs, and all of their WRs are healthy.
37. Javonte Williams rush + receiving yards
Line: 84.5 yards
Mean Projection: 79.1 yards
Book: Caesars (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-110)
Date: September 12, 8:02pm ET
Notes: We’re expecting a 55%-45% usage edge for Javonte over Melvin Gordon based on beat reports, but the markets seem to believe Javonte will handle a larger amount. We’re betting against that assumption in Week 1.
