We believe NFL Player Props are among the softest markets in the NFL betting menu.
That doesn’t mean it’s easy — but it does mean we think we have a good chance to beat it. That’s because we are already doing all the hard work for our core business. We are incredibly serious fantasy and DFS players, and each week, we project how every player in every game will fare. We do this using statistical models we’ve built in tandem with a unique understanding of player usage and coaching tendencies. This is part math, part football, and part gambling knowledge.
Here is how we’ve fared in NFL and NBA in-season props since we started Establish The Run in 2019. Note that the won/lost dollar amount assumes betting to win $100 on each favored prop. And risking $100 on each underdog prop:
2019 NFL In-Season Player Props: 50-36, +$963
2020 NFL In-Season Player Props: 55-34, +$1,907
2020-21 NBA In-Season Player Props: 111-82, +$1,817
2021 NFL In-Season Player Props: 216-118, +$8,572
2021-22 NBA In-Season Player Props: 751-495, +$20,348
2022-23 NFL In-Season Player Props: 304-217, +$6,068 (through Divisional Round)
2022-23 NBA In-Season Player Props: 405-276, +$9,520 (through January 22, 2023)
This year, we have added to our team to attack the NFL player prop markets even harder than we have before.
We have made changes to this product in 2022. BEFORE making a purchase, please read the entire FAQ below. To subscribe, CLICK HERE.
WHO IS BEHIND THIS?
Nearly our entire NFL team, led by Adam Levitan. This includes our analytics and projections teams.
HOW WILL THE PLAYS BE DELIVERED?
Previously, we released bets only through our subscriber-only Discord. However, some users have had problems with notifications there.
This year, we will be providing notifications through Telegram. We do NOT recommend purchasing this subscription if you are not willing to install this application and turn on push notifications. We may release through Discord as well, but you must be on Telegram to ensure you receive timely notifications.
We’ll have more info on the exact Telegram process soon — stay tuned and we’ll be in touch!
WHAT IS TELEGRAM?
Telegram is a simple chat service. You may download it for desktop or mobile here: https://telegram.org/.
WHEN WILL THE PLAYS BE RELEASED?
Whenever we find a prop worth betting, we take it. It could be any time of the day or night. Typically, we will try to bet opening lines, aka as soon as books release them. That could be any time between Tuesday and Thursday. We typically will continue to find other bets throughout the weekend based on news, injuries, weather, or other relevant information.
DO I GET ANYTHING ELSE BESIDES PLAYS?
Yes. You will receive access to our private Discord community, which is only for paying ETR subscribers. Historically, our Discord has “crowdsourced” strong betting opportunities, in addition to discussing betting strategies, outs, etc. Many subscribers have told us the Discord community has created significant value for them.
You also receive access to our full statistical projections each Saturday at 1pm ET.
For clarity, note that our Prizepicks DFS Lines vs. Our Projections table is NOT be part of this subscription. All fantasy projections and content can be found in our In-Season Fantasy/DFS product.
DO YOU GUARANTEE I WILL BE ABLE TO GET THE LINES?
No. In fact, we can guarantee it won’t be easy. Lines typically move within a few seconds to 30 seconds after we release a play. It is what it is. It is up to you to be ready, and be fast. It also helps to have a lot of “outs”, aka different sportsbooks to bet props at.
CAN YOU GUARANTEE I WILL WIN?
Absolutely not. We’re going to do our best, but this is a competitive market and we make no guarantees.
WHAT BOOKS WILL I NEED MONEY ON?
As many as possible is ideal, but that’s up to you. We will be looking at the offerings from any legal United States book that has a presence in a majority of legal states. The majority of our bets will be on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Caesar’s. Occasionally, BETMGM, PointsBet, Barstool Sports, BetRivers, and FOXBet will be in play. We recognize there are other legal or offshore books that may have similar (or different) lines to our releases, but that is not something we will cover within this product. Do not sign up if that is an issue for you.
To read about sign-up offers for sportsbooks, please see here.
HOW MUCH DOES IT COST?
$29.99 per week on a recurring subscription. You can cancel anytime using the “account” tab on the site. We are not offering a monthly or annual option.
WHY DID YOU PRICE IT AT $29.99/WEEK?
In the past, there have simply been too many people using this information. Our goal is to keep the group smaller this year. In fact, we may close to new sign-ups if the group is too big and we don’t feel subscribers are getting enough value.
We also understand this will price some potential customers out. We sincerely wish this weren’t the case, but it’s the reality of offering this type of product.
WHY ARE YOU ONLY OFFERING A WEEKLY SUBSCRIPTION?
The number one complaint about this product, historically, has been that it is hard to get the same lines we post because the sportsbooks quickly move the lines. This is a legitimate issue. However, there are countless customers who are able to get the lines.
We want to just be extremely straightforward: If you can’t get the lines, cancel your subscription. If you’re taking a week off, traveling out of state, etc., you can cancel your subscription as well. With this setup, people only pay for what they use. And if the product is not for you for any reason, simply cancel whenever you want.
WHEN DOES THIS PRODUCT LAUNCH?
As soon as player prop lines for Week 1 regular season are posted, we will start making releases as we see opportunities.