Pittsburgh sent a second-round pick to Seattle for the rights to DK Metcalf on Sunday evening, giving them the biggest-bodied WR duo in football with Metcalf and George Pickens. Meanwhile, this cements Jaxon Smith-Njigba as the unquestioned WR1 for the Seahawks, though their QB position is still a complete unknown. Metcalf also signed a five-year, $150 million extension with Pittsburgh.
DK METCALF
- Will it be Russell Wilson or Justin Fields (or someone else?) at QB for the Steelers? If it’s Fields and Pickens remains on the team — two unknowns — it could be a fairly ugly outlook for Metcalf relative to what he had in Seattle. A $30 million APY over five years is a massive investment in Metcalf and indicates a belief that he’ll be a focal point, but Pickens, while unreliable, has now had consecutive seasons with at least a 22% target share and 8.7 yards per target despite inconsistent QB play.
- Pickens and Metcalf are redundant weapons as big, strong, vertical WRs, so it’s an interesting fit on paper and raises the question of what PIT does with Pickens. Still, both are clearly extremely talented and productive WRs, and the overlapping skill sets don’t necessarily mean it won’t work.
- If Fields is at QB, this will be a frustrating passing game. The Steelers had zero games with a positive Pass Rate Over Expectation with Fields starting in Weeks 1-6 last year, and they had three games with a double-digit negative PROE. Arthur Smith and Fields together could create the most run-heavy offense of the past decade, and then dividing what little pass volume exists between Metcalf and Pickens would make things even uglier.
- Pittsburgh will skew run-heavy even with Wilson, but that’s clearly the better outcome for the WRs here. We’ll see what happens.
GEORGE PICKENS
- Pickens is notoriously hot-headed and has struggled with inconsistency throughout his career, including a six-target, zero-yard performance in an important divisional Week 18 game for the Steelers in 2024. The Metcalf signing has to raise some questions about where he’ll play next year, and a $150 million contract to Metcalf is a serious investment. Still, Metcalf has often split WR1 duties throughout his time in Seattle with both Tyler Lockett and JSN, and if Pickens remains a Steeler come next fall, they could both end up in the 22-24% target share range given the lack of other weapons here. As mentioned above with Metcalf, Pickens’ value also hinges enormously on who starts at QB for the Steelers next year if he remains with his current team.
- Beyond that, we’ll see if trade rumors pick up for Pickens over the next few weeks/months.
JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA
- Right now, the Seahawks’ WR2 is Jake Bobo. They will likely make multiple WR additions this offseason, but the decision to cut Tyler Lockett and trade Metcalf displays extreme faith in JSN, who had a true Year 2 breakout with 100/1,130/6 in 2024. His 23% target share and 0.23 targets-per-route-run mark weren’t elite, but he also had significantly stronger target competition than what he will probably have this upcoming season. Earning a high-20s target share is a skill that not everyone is capable of, but JSN certainly has a path to that type of role.
- The Athletic’s Dianna Russini reported immediately after the Geno Smith trade that the Seahawks were interested in Sam Darnold and has since reported that they plan to talk to Aaron Rodgers. At this point, we don’t really know who will be under center in Seattle — which has a massive impact on JSN’s value — but early reporting indicates they want to sign a veteran rather than going after one of the rookies. Assuming they have a below-average veteran QB and mediocre WR talent behind JSN, the third-year WR can easily return second-round value on volume alone. Still, there’s a lot still to be decided at QB/WR for Seattle that will hugely impact JSN’s outlook.
