The Projection Breakers

We spend countless hours grinding inputs for our projections. Whether it’s minutes or rates, we do our best to give every fantasy-relevant player the most accurate projection. However, sometimes the math just can’t get there on dozens of players in the NBA, which causes the projections to be behind on ADPs. These cases are The Projection Breakers.

Usually, the main driver in being behind on a projection is total minutes. Sometimes a player just hasn’t shown he can play a heavier minutes workload, or he has a history of missing games. It could also just be a logjam at his position or his coach generally not pushing up minutes on his main rotation players. It could also just be that we’re off on rates, pushing the per-minute output down.

Another common reason is the market is just way too excited about a rookie or a player in a new situation. We can try to paint a bull case for some of these options to get closer, but we still can’t even get there. 

Most of the scenarios above, we can try to account for, but the next one, we really can’t: Trades can shift so much value that we can’t account for, so that’s an area where drafters have to be aware. I’m here to help, so let’s start there. Plus, some injury-prone players going down could also open things up. I’ll lay out why we’re behind and mention if I’m willing to draft them near ADP.

Trades not baked in enough

Kel’El Ware – If the Bucks can somehow get off of Myles Turner, Ware would become one of the best C values in the middle rounds on DraftKings. Coach Erik Spoelstra in Miami would put Ware in the doghouse, but the Bucks may not have that option given he was one of the best pieces in the Giannis Antetokounmpo trade. Plus, no more Doc Rivers should keep the Jericho Sims factor suppressed. Ware has huge rates, and this is a bet I would want to make even though the projections don’t like it that much.

Maxime Raynaud – Last year, Domantas Sabonis went down, and that allowed Raynaud to make the All-Rookie Second Team thanks to his post-break 17/9/2 line over 32.2 minutes per game. There are a lot of rumors about Sabonis getting traded, which would open things up a ton for Raynaud (and Dylan Cardwell to a lesser extent). Raynaud costs a ton on DK, and we’re almost two rounds behind on him. It’s just a weird spot in the draft, and I’d still rather take Isaiah Hartenstein a round later. However, if you missed C in the first few rounds, Raynaud may be worth the swing at ADP because you need the upside to catch up. I’ll be underweight on him, and I’m OK with that.

Anthony Black – The Magic are getting very expensive on the cap sheet, so they may have to move on from Jalen Suggs. Plus, Suggs misses a lot of time due to injury, giving Black another path. Black has shown he can soak up minutes and even some usage, and he also has some paths to more minutes with any starting perimeter player missing time. We’re only a half-round behind on Black, so he’s someone I’ll be taking a round or so ahead of our rank. There are some solid options in his range, though.

Morez Johnson Jr. and Santi Aldama – We’re already way ahead on these guys, and we might get even more ahead if Daniel Gafford gets traded. They also have the out of Dereck Lively II missing so much time. They’ll be two of my highest-rostered players over the next 1.5 months.

Contingency value from injuries