Early-Round Fantasy Targets

The first few picks in your draft really set the tone for your team. In football, your early picks’ positions will really dictate how you’re addressing picks in the later rounds. For hoops, not only do you have to do that, but addressing categories early can push you a certain way. Generally, I really like to take guys who have very high floors, so that’s going to be a trend for this list. These are the guys I’m likely going to have on my teams in the first four rounds. It’s a pretty short list, but check out Sleepers and Undervalued (coming soon) for the guys I like after the third round.

Damian Lillard – He’s keeping it Buck like George Washington! There’s just so much to like here. Last year’s leader in PNR handling points per game moves into what should be an up-tempo powerhouse on offense, and Dame ranked first in PNR efficiency at 1.14 PPP (top 62 qualifiers). After ranking in the top six for halfcourt offense in each of the previous five years before the 2022-23 season, the Bucks dipped all the way to 12th last year. With Khris Middleton aging, the Bucks badly need someone to inject a halfcourt set to lean on, and it should certainly be Dame with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez setting screens for him. Last year, the Bucks ranked 26th in PNR handler frequency, while they were 12th in efficiency. The infrastructure is there for Dame to repeat as the league’s leader in PNR scoring. Additionally, Dame was arguably the league’s best shooter on deep 3s at 35.0% on his 80 deep treys last year, and that should be a big component to the Milwaukee offense to help Giannis avoid some double and triple teams. We’ve seen a lot of players take a big step in off-ball shooting because of Giannis, and Dame has been a 67+ eFG% shooter on unguarded jumpers in three of the last four years. There’s just so many ways Dame can thrive on this team. Great ecosystem aside, Lillard has shown improvement as a rim finisher throughout his career, getting to an impressive 62.0% on his layups to smash his career high. That aggressiveness also set up his best year at the line with his 8.8 makes ranking third in the league (Embiid, SGA). Dame also had superb durability prior to the abdomen issue and some tanking, so the games should be there. His time zone changed, so adjust yo’ watches for Dame Time.

Anthony Edwards – It’s Ant’s team now, and coach Chris Finch knows it. In a podcast with J.J. Redick, Finch mentioned he wants Ant to get to the basket more and impose his will on defense more. While Ant did take a step back as a free-throw shooter (77.6% as a rookie, 78.6% soph, 75.6% last year), I’d expect it to rebound closer to 80%. Finch also said he wants him to manipulate the floor, and he mentioned he’s expected to play more as a cerebral player. We saw more PNR handling from Ant last year, and he has upped his efficiency on that play significantly in each year over his career. Ant should get plenty of handling next to a very capable shooter in Mike Conley. Plus, We’ve seen Edwards hit 41+% of his catch-and-shoot 3-pointers in each of the last two seasons. If the free throws are there, he could be the total package as a scorer. He also said he wants to take on a bigger on-ball D role to possibly up his steals. Add all that to a very durable player, and you can easily target him late in the first round.