NBA Matchups: November 15

MIA @ IND | PHI @ ORL | DET @ TOR | WAS @ ATL | CHI @ CLE | BKN @ NYK | LAL @ SAS | LAC @ HOU | DEN @ NOP | PHX @ OKC | MEM @ GSW | MIN @ SAC

Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers

Team Totals: Heat 111.3, Pacers 115.3

Injury Report: Jimmy Butler (O, ankle)

Heat projected starters: Tyler Herro, Terry Rozier, Haywood Highsmith, Kevin Love, Bam Adebayo

Pacers projected starters: Tyrese Haliburton, Bennedict Mathurin, Ben Sheppard, Pascal Siakam, Myles Turner

Spo quotes: Said he’s ashamed of the timeout error and he just got emotional to make the mistake, said Herro is ignitable in the pressure moments of the game.

Carlisle quotes: Said they didn’t manage their mistakes well enough, said Furphy is a great player on off-ball movement, said Furphy’s finger was cut and it affected him, said Mathurin’s rebounding is “impressive” and “his recognition continues to improve.”

Stats and Notes: 

*The Miami defense isn’t great this year… it’s not even good at 18th overall and 20th in the halfcourt. They’re still giving up a ton of 3-pointers with the seventh-highest frequency allowed overall, and they’re allowing the ninth-most C&S attempts despite slow pace (15th in dribble jumpers). They are getting on track at seventh in transition points allowed and ninth in rim points. Those are the main areas the Pacers like to attack, and we saw the Pacers struggle there against the Magic. It won’t be too easy for Hali and the boys. For the Pacers on defense, it’s rim-funnel time as they’re up to third in the NBA for rim points allowed while they’re the ninth-lowest in C&S attempts per game.

*Tyler Herro is playing the best ball of his career right now. He has been living in PNR with 12 possessions on Tuesday, and he’s been at eight-plus in each of the last six games. He’s also driving more at 15.5 times per game and that’s starting to become the foundation of the offense. His matchup is pretty solid with the Pacers likely to put Ben Sheppard on him. I’m buying this Herro start and expect him to add to it.

*This should be a Bam Adebayo spot, but man it’s a tough sell. Since Jimmy Butler went down, he’s not even getting more frontcourt touches per minute, and most of his output is off the ball. It’s tough out here. The good news is he leads the team in potential assists in the last two, so there’s big upside if he can finally get it going as a scorer. How bad has Bam been? Among guys with his volume, he’s last in roll-man efficiency (13 qualifiers), second to last in post-up efficiency (18), and third worst in spot-up efficiency (151).  I can’t do it until I see it.

*Terry Rozier has also been quite bad. Among the 62 guys with his volume as a PNR handler, he has the second-worst efficiency (Keyonte George). Yeah, I’m just out here until he turns it around. Maybe that injury slowed him down too much in the preseason and he just can’t get on track yet.

*Man, it’s so frustrating on Tyrese Haliburton. He’s really struggled with his off-ball shooting and the transition aspect of his game just isn’t there. This year, he has just 1.6 points per game in transition compared to 3.7 last year. He’s also fallen from a 91st-percentile PNR handler to just 77th. Plus, he’s failed to top a 20.0 usage rate in three of his last four, which could be tied a little to Bennedict Mathurin soaking up more shots. The handling role is there, but he may not have the upside unless he’s getting usage in the upper 20s (28.9% the exception when he went off against the Knicks). I’m not planting him again.

*Bennedict Mathurin is absolutely torching NBA defenders right now. Among guys with his volume, he’s seventh in PNR handler efficiency (36 qualifiers) and he is first in transition efficiency (29 qualifiers). Miami’s defense doesn’t have too much depth to slow him down, and the minutes spike is real. With Highsmith possibly guarding Pascal Siakam, I kind of like this spot for him here.

*Speaking of Siakam, this matchup isn’t ideal with the Heat having a solid interior defense. I could also see the Heat using Bam on him to make this even worse.

*Myles Turner’s matchup isn’t great against Bam Adebayo, but he did have a 22/13/2 game against him last season. While the Heat could put Nikola Jovic on him, it’s still a pass for me.

Great matchups: Tyler Herro

Good matchups: Bam Adebayo, Bennedict Mathurin

Bad matchups: Myles Turner

Philadelphia 76ers at Orlando Magic