Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers (front end)
Team Totals: Cavs 113, Pacers 110.5
Injury Report: Darius Garland (Q, hamstring), Jarrett Allen (Q, ankle), Ty Jerome (O, ankle), Tyrese Haliburton (Q, ankle), Jalen Smith (Q, knee)
Cavs projected starters: Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Max Strus, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen (Note: Much more confident Allen plays over Garland)
Pacers projected starters: Tyrese Haliburton, Bennedict Mathurin, Bruce Brown, Obi Toppin, Myles Turner
Bickerstaff quotes: Said they made some changes to their defensive system, said they know Caris LeVert can beat his man off the dribble, said he trusts Okoro to not pick up fouls and he did a great job on Brunson, said Okoro is so good at staying between his man and the basket, said Niang was great in the system and he was able to irritate Julius Randle.
Carlisle quotes: Said they allowed the Celtics to play as great as they played and it was his fault the result was so “embarrassing” on Wednesday, said they have to compete a lot better.
Stats and Notes:
*Despite getting wrecked in Boston without Haliburton, the Pacers were still able to establish their identity on offense with good rim volume. They’re still second in the NBA with rim points per game, and the Cavs have still been pretty decent down there with the eighth-fewest points per game allowed. The Cavs have been missing Jarrett Allen on the boards with teams getting to them there, but the schedule might explain some of that. With the Cavs slowing this game down, it may not be a great offensive night from the Pacers. On the other side, the Pacers just cannot defend right now, and that was already the case before Boston torched them. The Pacers have been the biggest rim funnel in the league, which has been a huge trend over the years. They’re allowing the lowest 3-point frequency in the league and the most at-rim volume at a wild 43.4% of shots. It’s open season for Cleveland interior scorers.
*The Garland news will swing a lot here, but it could be a massive Donovan Mitchell spot regardless. He showed he is back to a full minutes workload at 37 on Wednesday, and his offense is clicking. He’s on pace for his highest usage rate, highest TS%, and highest assist percentage (no Garland does skew this). A big reason why he’s been so efficient is his league-best 1.62 PPP on layups (min. 19 layups, 63 qualifiers). The matchup is about as good as it gets with the Pacers lacking ball-pressure guys among their high-minute players — Nembhard won’t be able to stay in front of Mitchell. It’s a great spot for Mitchell.
*Darius Garland already aggravated his hamstring, so you would imagine there’s a multi-game ramp-up on him. We’ll have his minutes really light in the projections, which could make Caris LeVert viable.
*The Pacers have been a huge rim funnel the last couple of years, so that could make Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen interesting. Mobley led the NBA in total dunks last season (tied for most this year; Duren), and maybe Allen is limited from a minutes or role standpoint. Plus, Mobley may get the softest matchup on the team against Obi Toppin. Jarrett Allen could be in play. He’s been practicing for a while now, so the team certainly took their time with getting him back on the court. We’ve seen them go with a no-ramp approach on injuries, but they probably have to ramp him up after missing the entire preseason.
*Tyrese Haliburton’s Q tag is one of the biggest ones on the slate, and you’d think he could easily miss this in a B2B. If he’s in, he could be worth a look, especially if Darius Garland is in there to take Isaac Okoro out of the starting lineup. If he’s out, the matchup for Andrew Nembhard is easier than it was against the Celtics. Plus, we saw a huge role from him in multiple games as the starting PG. Plus, the early returns are better than last year at 66.7% on his shots off of drives. Nembhard would be in play as a starter.
*It’s really hard to get excited about the other Pacers. Bennedict Mathurin’s elbow could be affecting him, and he just hasn’t had the burst to get high-end shots. Obi Toppin is in big trouble, but at least they need his size. I wouldn’t be shocked if Jarace Walker cuts into him today and Nesmith moves to being a SF to bump out Sheppard. It’s also a terrible matchup for Myles Turner.
Great matchups: Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley
Good matchups: Jarrett Allen, Tyrese Haliburton/Andrew Nembhard
Bad matchups: Myles Turner, Bennedict Mathurin
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New York Knicks at Milwaukee Bucks
Team Totals: Knicks 109.3, Bucks 114.8
Injury Report: R.J. Barrett (Q, knee)
Knicks projected starters: Jalen Brunson, Quentin Grimes, R.J. Barrett, Julius Randle, Mitchell Robinson
Bucks projected starters: Damian Lillard, Malik Beasley, Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez
Thibodeau quotes: Said he still liked how they defended and rebounded, but the shots just didn’t go down.
Griffin quotes: Said they didn’t contain the ball, said he’s trying to experiment with some lineups (went with Giannis at C without Portis/Lopez), said he thought Middleton was done with 13 minutes in the first half but he put him back in when he heard he can keep playing, said Brook didn’t do anything wrong to lose most of his 2H minutes.
Stats and Notes:
*The Bucks have some major defensive issues, ranking second to last in defensive rating (Wizards). They’re deterring teams from getting to the basket with the league’s lowest at-rim frequency at just 22.2%, but teams are just burying jumpers on them. They are in the top five for most points on C&S shots allowed and jumper points allowed.
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