A lot of NFL fans and fantasy players are certain. They’re sure that rookie QBs target TEs more often, and rushing QBs throw to RBs less, and fast WRs perform better on turf.
The ETR data science team decided to put these narratives to the test. We used historical results to compare to expectations.
Narrative 1: Mobile QBs score better against man defenses
Premise: When defenders are in zone defense, they are able to focus on reading the quarterback. On the other hand, defenders are more likely to have their backs turned to the quarterback when playing man defense. As a result, quarterbacks are more likely to have better scrambling efficiency against man defenses.
Analysis: We compared the average scramble yardage gained by defensive scheme for both quarterbacks that do scramble regularly and those who do not. We also reviewed the distribution of all quarterback scrambles from the 2021-2023 seasons against both man and zone defenses.
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