Thorman’s Snaps and Pace: Week 15

Welcome to the Week 15 edition of Snaps & Pace, where we examine trends in play volume and game pace. It is meant to be a 30,000-foot view of upcoming contests, with the goal of identifying which matchups will — and which will not — be played on fertile fantasy soil. For a primer on why this is important, click here.

Everyone is in action this week, although an unexciting main slate remains 11 games deep due to a pair of Saturday contests. This is the time of year when networks pilfer top Sunday day games, while injuries (and now Covid) take a heavy toll on early-week outlooks. We are left with mostly lopsided matchups and a dearth of projectable up-pace games. Three of the top seven fastest offenses are in primetime, including the Buccaneers (second) and Chiefs (third).

Unlike last week, there is no juicy matchup like Bills-Bucs. However, there are several games that could have similar outcomes to Raiders-Chiefs. The Cardinals, Cowboys, and Bills should all pile up points and plays against inferior opponents, but mutually-voluminous back-and-forth affairs are not likely. Still, we wade into the muck of Week 15 and best play the hand that’s been dealt.

As always, “situation neutral” is meant to provide context, refers to plays while the game is within seven points during the first three quarters (minus the final two minutes of the first half), and is derived via the intrepid RotoViz Pace Tool.

Up In Pace

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

While there is a chance the Giants can draft their way to extra play volume behind the Cowboys’ league-fastest offense, this matchup is mostly about Dallas. They have allowed the fourth-most opponent plays during the last month (68.5) in large part due to a lightning-quick pace that ranks them faster than even the sped-up Buccaneers. Cowboys games average the second-most combined plays on the season (130.2) and even more during the past four weeks (137.3). Only the Bucs have passed at a higher rate during neutral situations over that span (68%). Despite running the second-most plays per game, Dallas still ranks top eight in points-per-snap. Their contests average the fourth-most total points (51.3), and when these teams last met, they combined for a meaty 64 points and 138 plays.

The Giants are an even steamier pile than when they first played the Cowboys in Week 5. We don’t know who will be behind center, when Saquon Barkley will regain his explosiveness, if John Mara sleeps upside down, or if Kadarius Toney — who torched Dallas the first time — will even suit up (Covid). We do know that New York is still playing fast, for all the good it does them. They are operating at a top-10 situation-neutral pace during the last month, and when down by at least seven points, the Giants (+10.5) are the third-fastest offense. Joe Judge might not have the faintest clue about when to punt, but he doesn’t intentionally quit. It’s usually not a good thing when it comes to Giants quarterbacks, but only the Bucs and Cowboys have thrown at a higher situation-neutral rate during the last month — and both New York and Dallas rank top eight in opponent pass rate. We may witness the Cowboys’ pass rush make a pretzel of Mike Glennon, but at least their breakneck offensive pace will yield a boatload of plays.

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams