The NFL Draft is less than a week away. Before it arrives, here’s four tactics to help you prepare your dynasty teams for success.
1. Shop Your Running Backs
The week before the NFL draft can be an especially tenuous time to hold RBs who do not have a stranglehold on their starting jobs. Here’s a thought exercise to help you decide which RBs on your dynasty team you may want to shop around this week.
For any RB you own, what would happen to their redraft value if their team drafted Cam Akers next Saturday? I say redraft value because I want to focus on which RBs are at a high risk of losing their path to 2020 fantasy points. And I say Cam Akers because of his all around skill set and because as Evan Silva’s fifth ranked RB in the class, he projects as a talented backup in some situations, but as a potential Week 1 starter in other backfields. Basically, if you own a RB whose 2020 outlook can’t survive a Day 3 Cam Akers pick, you should at least test the trade market for him this week.
Projected Change in Redraft ADP from Akers in Round 4:
Relatively no change in ADP (Akers seen as an upgraded backup RB):
Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, Derrick Henry, Joe Mixon, Aaron Jones, Nick Chubb, Josh Jacobs.
(Of these RBs, Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, Derrick Henry, Joe Mixon and Aaron Jones are currently slated to be 2021 Free Agents, so their dynasty value could still be impacted. But you’d likely have a strong sell window in a few months once dynasty owners shift their focus more toward 2020).
Slight hit to ADP (Akers seen as a potential committee member):
Miles Sanders, Austin Ekeler, Kenyan Drake, Leonard Fournette, Melvin Gordon, Le’Veon Bell, James Conner, David Johnson, David Montgomery.
(Fournette’s 5th year option has yet to be picked up, and Drake and Conner are currently Free Agents in 2021. So their dynasty ADPs face additional risk even though their 2020 outlooks would remain mostly intact).
Meaningful Hit to ADP (Akers projected to contribute immediately as a committee member, with potential to emerge as long-term starter):
Todd Gurley, Devin Singletary, Chris Carson, Marlon Mack, Mark Ingram, Damien Williams, Kerryon Johnson, Darrell Henderson, Raheem Mostert, Derrius Guice.
Major Hit to ADP (Akers seen as potential a Week 1 starter):
Ronald Jones, Sony Michel, Jordan Howard.
Based on current dynasty ADP, I’m inclined to think that Fournette, Singletary, Gurley, Kerryon Johnson, Mack, and Carson owners may be particularly exposed to downside risk. But I highly recommend you do this thought exercise yourself, perhaps subbing in Zach Moss or Ke’Shawn Vaughn depending on your personal evaluations of the rookies.
The key takeaway is this: if you believe you own a RB whose 2020 outlook would take a major hit from a relatively minor draft addition… you should start shopping that RB at a price that doesn’t fully reflect his downside risk.
2. Shop For RBs
Perhaps counterintuitively, this can be a great time to add RBs as well. Based on the thought exercise above, some RBs look safer than their ADPs would indicate. Gordon, Montgomery and David Johnson would likely survive a 4th round selection of Akers relatively unharmed. Yet they are going as dynasty RB21, RB23 and RB32 respectively. That’s not to say that they don’t have have other warts, but they do appear under-priced relative to their comparatively safe outlook for 2020 production.
Bell and Conner were the hardest RBs for me to bucket. They are both candidates to be on new teams in 2021, and Conner in particular is at risk of a more premium RB addition than Akers. But at the same time, they’ve both been true workhorses when healthy, and would likely have a significant talent advantage over Akers in 2020. With both players currently going outside the top 60 in startups, I would recommend seeing if either is available at a discount.
Additionally, some risky RBs have the majority of their risk already priced into their ADPs. In particular, Damien Williams’ startup ADP of RB35 of jumps out to me. Granted… this take won’t age well if the Chiefs draft D’Andre Swift at 32 overall, but Williams is still a good bet to lead a committee in the most potent offense in football, and he has upside for more–yet he’s barely going inside the top 100 startup picks.
Owners with high appetites for risk could also shop for values on Henderson, Ingram, Mostert, and Ronald Jones.
3. Load Up On 2nd and 3rd Round Rookie Picks
I don’t necessarily mean to load up on 2nd and 3rd round picks at the expense of 1st round picks, because the top of this class is excellent. But the depth of this class remains its defining feature. And 2nd and 3rd round picks are usually far less expensive to acquire than rookie 1sts.
Evan Silva’s Rookie WR Rankings should help hammer home the depth of this class. In addition to Evan’s top 10, he provided 15 tier 2 WRs before providing an additional 20 WRs in Tier 3. Much will depend on where and how many of these WRs are drafted, but there are far more interesting WR prospects this year than usual.
Post-draft I expect there to be between 16-20 WRs that I’ll be happy to spend a top 24 rookie pick on, along with 6-10 RBs and at least 1 TE. Your scoring settings and league depth will dictate where the QBs fall on your rookie board, but it’s very likely we’ll see three QBs go in the top 12 of the NFL draft, and we may see four selected by the late 1st.
In other words, at a bare minimum we should have 24 players that feel very comfortable as top 24 selections. And with some good landing spots, the third round of rookie drafts could be loaded as well. And because rookie drafts aren’t perfectly efficient, even bad landing spots in the NFL draft should still see the third round peppered with falling values.
I recommend targeting back-end second rounders and early thirds, that can likely be had at a discount. Again… if you can move into even more premium draft position, I like that too. But your league-mates are used to valuing early picks highly. They may not realize how much more valuable their picks outside the top 20 are this year.
In deeper leagues I also like the 4th round quite a bit. Basically, long as you have the roster spots, get as many cheap cracks at this rookie class as you can.
4. Send Offers for Breakout TE Candidates
TE is the one skill position where veterans face very little risk from the NFL draft. This is true generally, as TEs typically take a long time to develop as NFL starters. But it’s particularly true this year with an incoming TE class that is the weakest in years.
If your league-mates haven’t fully caught up to the fact that Jonnu Smith and Blake Jarwin were highly efficient last year and are stepping into much larger roles, or that Mike Gesicki is entering just his third season having already secured a major role in his offense, or that Ian Thomas is an athletic freak who is finally getting his opportunity to start, this week may be your last chance to cheaply acquire these breakout candidates. Once redraft ADP starts highlighting their potential to be 2020’s Mark Andrews and Darren Waller, their dynasty values will rise significantly.
Finally, Jace Sternberger, who saw only one target last season but now projects as the Packers starter, is one TE that could actually lose his job to an incoming rookie. But given the weakness of this class I like him despite the risk. If Green Bay ignores TE on Day 1 and 2, it will be very bullish for Sternberger’s 2020 fantasy outlook and his trade value is likely to skyrocket.
