NFL Player Props We Bet: Wild Card Round

Betting into an extremely liquid market such as NFL sides and totals is a very difficult endeavor. Lines move to efficiency very quickly and can’t be beaten at -110 by the overwhelming majority of bettors.

However, player props are extremely beatable. As hardcore fantasy players, we are actually putting more time and thought into player outlooks than the oddsmakers. And since the limits on these player props are typically low, a lot of books don’t mind leaving up some soft lines. It’s essentially advertising to get people into their book. Don’t use player props as a guide for your DFS or season-long selections. Instead, we should be seeking out soft player props to bet.

IMPORTANT: The lines for the bets you see below will almost certainly be gone. In order to get the lines as we release them, you must be subscribed to our Props Package and be connected to our subscriber-only Telegram channel.

 

Levitan’s Published Player Prop History
2019 NFL In-Season Record: 50-36, +$963
2020 NFL In-Season Record: 55-34, +$1,907
2020-21 NBA In-Season Record: 111-82, +$1,817
2021 NFL In-Season Record: 216-118: +$8,572
2021-22 NBA In-Season Record: 751-495, +$20,348
2022 NFL In-Season Record: 289-211, +$5,307 (through Week 18)
2022 NBA In-Season Record: 367-234, +$10,134 (through January 10)
* Won/lost dollar amount is based on betting to win $100 on each favored prop. And risking $100 on each underdog prop.

 

1. Joe Mixon rushing yards
Line: 48.5 yards
Mean Projection: 62.0 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-115)
Date: January 11, 12:15pm ET
Notes: Mixon had a 16-4 carries edge over Samaje Perine in Week 17 and 9-1 in Week 18 before the last two drives. Against Tyler Huntley or Anthony Brown, Cincinnati should be in positive game script.

 

2. Daniel Jones pass attempts
Line: 31.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 33.9 attempts
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-114)
Date: January 11, 4:05pm ET
Notes: This game will be played in a dome, and Jones exceeded this number handily (42 attempts) the last time he faced Minnesota.

 

3. JaMychal Hasty receiving yards
Line: 9.5 yards
Mean Projection: 8.6 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-108)
Date: January 12, 4:18pm ET
Notes: Hasty is 6-3 to the under against this number since James Robinson was traded, and there is some chance they scale his snaps back aggressively given that it is a playoff game.

 

4. DeAndre Carter receiving yards
Line: 34.5 yards
Mean Projection: 31.1 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-114)
Date: January 13, 5:25pm ET
Notes: Carter is the WR3 with Mike Williams out, but we expect the LAC passing game to flow heavily through Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler, and Josh Palmer.

 

5. Kenneth Walker rushing attempts
Line: 15.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 18.7 attempts
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-135)
Date: January 13, 9:00pm ET
Notes: We prefer attempts to yards for KW3 vs. a stingy 49ers run D, but the Seahawks will need the OROY favorite to have a big day to remain competitive.

 

6. Dalvin Cook rushing attempts
Line: 15.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 18.9 attempts
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-135)
Date: January 13, 10:07pm ET
Notes: Cook has dominated Alexander Mattison in rushing attempts in normal game script and this number seems over-adjusted for abnormal circumstances in recent games.

 

7. Gus Edwards rushing yards
Line: 35.5 yards
Mean Projection: 32.8 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: January 13, 10:14pm ET
Notes: J.K. Dobbins should be fully healthy after a week of rest and the Ravens are big underdogs.

 

8. Dak Prescott rushing yards
Line: 18.5 yards
Mean Projection: 12.6 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-114)
Date: January 13, 10:20pm ET
Notes: Dak has gone under this number more often than not over the past few years.

 

9. Brock Purdy pass attempts
Line: 27.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 30.3 attempts
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-102)
Date: January 14, 4:12pm ET
Notes: This is a low number with low juice and we have full agreement in the projections market.

 

10. Tony Pollard rushing attempts
Line: 10.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 11.9 attempts
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (+100)
Date: January 15, 9:15am ET
Notes: We expect a near-even rushing split between Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott.

 

11. Isaiah Hodgins receptions
Line: 3.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 4.8 receptions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-120)
Date: January 15, 5:23pm ET
Notes: Hodgins has been on fire lately and is running a route on nearly every one of Daniel Jones’ dropbacks. He appears full-go in warmups after a minor ankle scare in practice.

 

12. T.J. Hockenson receptions
Line: 4.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 5.4 receptions
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-130)
Date: January 15, 5:28m ET
Notes: Hockenson has commanded a monster target share since joining the Vikings.