The Rundown: Week 14

Welcome to The Rundown: Week 14. Each week, we will be compiling some of our favorite and most actionable takes from the ETR team and organizing them on this page game by game. Please note that all betting information is sourced from DraftKings Sportsbook. If you’re betting sides and totals, always be sure to line shop first and utilize ETR’s various sportsbook bonus offers.

Buccaneers at Falcons, 1:00 p.m. EST (return to top)

• Cheap WRs: Gary Hartman listed Drake London ($4,600 DK) as a strong DraftKings-only play. London gets a much easier home matchup with Tampa Bay this week. It’s scary investing in any Falcons pass catcher, but you can take shots on London in GPPs, especially at this low tag.
• Buy Leone: Kyle Pitts ($3,700 DK, 1.9 PPG underperformance – second-highest among all TEs) appears in this week’s model.
• DFS Top Plays: The ETR team listed Bijan Robinson ($6,500 DK, $7,100 FD) as a top RB play on both DraftKings (5th) and FanDuel (2nd). Bijan is at home in the division this week, and we expect coach Arthur Smith to lean on his best offensive player in an important game. At these prices, he’s very much in play for all contests.

Silva’s Matchups Takes:

• • “The Falcons have played stingy run defense all year — holding enemy backs to 3.7 yards per carry and the NFL’s third-fewest fantasy points — but Rachaad White’s bellcow usage has earned him every-week RB1 valuation.”
  • “Baker Mayfield enters Week 14 ranked 16th among quarterbacks in fantasy scoring set to face a Falcons defense that has pass-funnel tendencies…Mayfield is a quality starter in two-QB/Superflex leagues.”
  • “I’m pushing Week 14 chips in on Mike Evans, who ranks No. 8 in the NFL in receiving yards (1,012) and No. 2 in receiving TDs (10).”
  • “Evans has simply lapped Godwin in the race for targets and Air Yards from Mayfield. Chris Godwin is a dicey WR3 here.”
  • “Atlanta’s allowance of the NFL’s eighth-most fantasy tight ends puts Cade Otton back on the TE1 streaming radar, even after last week’s goose egg against Carolina.”
  • “Trey Palmer hasn’t cleared 51 yards in a game all year.”
  • “Desmond Ridder’s bottom-five QB play combined with HC Arthur Smith’s extreme run-first philosophy explain the persistent box-score incompetence of Kyle Pitts and Drake London.”
  • “I do have some (admittedly high-risk) interest in London here. The pass-funnel Bucs are yielding the NFL’s sixth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. London is still running the most routes and playing the most snaps among Falcons pass catchers.”
  • “Even in a tough draw with Tampa Bay’s Vita Vea-keyed defensive front, Bijan Robinson is a shoo-in RB1 starter who may go under-owned in DFS based on matchup.”

Lions at Bears, 1:00 p.m. EST (return to top)

• Snaps and Pace: Pat Thorman called this game up in pace. The Bears’ defense displays increasing pass-funnel characteristics, ranking 27th in dropback EPA and third in rush EPA while facing the league’s fifth-highest opponent pass rate during the past month (66%). The Lions’ offense is operating at the fifth-quickest pace over that span, and has weekly rankings of 10th, seventh, and second most (against the Bears) in average play-clock seconds remaining at the snap. These teams’ prior matchup delivered 57 points and 130 snaps, and the faster path is clearly the one of least resistance for Detroit’s offense.
• OL vs. DL: Brandon Thorn listed the Lions’ OL (5th) > the Bears’ DL (29th) as the week’s biggest mismatch. Detroit may be without very good starter Frank Ragnow inside, but they will still have both tackles in place to combat the Bears’ best rushers off the edge and Chicago doesn’t have a legitimate interior pass rusher to capitalize on Ragnow’s absence.
• Buy Leone: Cole Kmet ($4,300 DK, 1.5 PPG u6,800nderperformance – fourth-highest among all TEs) and Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,600 DK, 1.2 PPG underperformance) both appear in this week’s model.
• DFS Top Plays: The ETR team listed Justin Fields ($6,800 DK, $7,900 FD) as a top QB play on both DraftKings (1st) and FanDuel (2nd). Fields has a very high ceiling at home against a Lions team that has been struggling mightily on defense over the second half of the season.

Silva’s Matchups Takes:

• • “I’m valuing Jared Goff as a low-end QB1 here…his career-long road splits bode negatively for his chances of building on last week’s momentum.”
  • “A #RevengeGame for David Montgomery…averaging 18.3 touches in victories this season versus 16.0 in losses.”
  • “Still teeing up Jahmyr Gibbs with confidence for his explosive-play ability.”
  • “Amon-Ra St. Brown hosed down the Bears for 8/77/1 receiving in Week 11…has at least 100 yards and/or a touchdown in all 11 of his appearances this season.”
  • “I still think Jameson Williams will pop for a breakout performance before the season is over… just have no idea when it’ll happen.”
  • “Sam LaPorta ranks No. 4 among tight ends in catches (64), No. 4 in yards (679), and No. 1 in touchdowns (6)… pristine matchup against Chicago.”
  • “Josh Reynolds has fallen below 20 yards in five straight games.”
  • “Justin Fields’ 98.7 QBR when targeting D.J. Moore is the highest of any quarterback-receiver duo in the league.”
  • “I don’t see any of the Bears RBs as realistic Week 14 plays.”
  • “Darnell Mooney has eclipsed 50 yards once since Week 4.”
  • “This is a plum spot for Cole Kmet against a Lions defense yielding the NFL’s fifth-most fantasy TE points.”

Colts at Bengals, 1:00 p.m. EST (return to top)