Thorn: Biggest OL vs. DL Mismatches, Week 14

The goal of a real-life NFL defense is to prevent the other team from scoring points. When we select a defense to roster, we’re trying to score the most fantasy points. It’s a subtle shift in thinking, but an important one.

The optimal way to select a defense in DFS is to think in terms of big events, not points allowed. Just 2.3% of games last season ended in a shutout and only 9.7% ended with one team being held to six points or fewer. In other words, targeting the “points allowed” category is a fool’s errand.

The real fantasy points come from sacks, forced fumbles, interceptions, and defensive touchdowns. These events are by far most likely to happen when a quarterback is under pressure. The best possible outcome on a single play for our defense is a strip sack which results in a defensive touchdown, as we get one DraftKings point for the sack, two for the fumble recovery, and six for the touchdown.

With that in mind, below you’ll find the biggest mismatches between defensive and offensive lines for Week 14. The objective is to project QB pressure through film study, injuries, scheme, coaching, and talent.

Week 14 Bye Week: Cardinals & Commanders

DL Rankings – Week 14

1. Cowboys
2. Eagles
3. 49ers – DT Arik Armstead suffered a knee injury last week against the Eagles that could keep him out for a week or two.
4. Steelers
5. Jets
6. Titans
7. Chiefs
8. Browns – DE Myles Garrett suffered a significant shoulder injury in Week 12 but is determined to keep playing despite the pain.
9. Giants
10. Packers
11. Ravens
12. Vikings
13. Jaguars
14. Colts
15. Texans
16. Rams
17. Raiders
18. Chargers – DE Joey Bosa was put on short-term injured reserve with a foot injury suffered in Week 11.
19. Bengals
20. Panthers
21. Bills – Edge rusher Von Miller is facing a domestic violence charge that made news last Thursday but practiced on Thursday and is expected to play this week.
22. Lions – DT Alim McNeill was put on short-term injured reserve with a knee injury.
23. Commanders
24. Patriots
25. Seahawks
26. Dolphins – Edge rusher Jaelan Phillips is out for the year with a torn Achilles.
27. Bucs
28. Broncos
29. Bears
30. Saints
31. Falcons
32. Cardinals

OL Rankings – Week 14

1. Eagles
2. Cowboys
3. Ravens
4. Chiefs
5. Lions – C Frank Ragnow missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday with a knee injury that took him out of Week 13’s game after 21 snaps.
6. Bucs
7. 49ers
8. Colts
9. Vikings
10. Chargers – C Corey Linsley remains out with a “non-emergent heart-related issue” that has kept him out of the lineup since Week 3.
11. Browns
12. Bengals
13. Bills
14. Falcons
15. Texans – LG Tytus Howard is out for the year with a knee injury. RT George Fant missed practice on Wednesday & Thursday with a hip injury.
16. Packers
17. Seahawks
18. Rams
19. Bears
20. Broncos
21. Jaguars – LT Cam Robinson is on injured reserve with a knee injury. Backup LT Walker Little missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday with a hamstring injury.
22. Saints
23. Patriots
24. Cardinals
25. Dolphins – RG Robert Hunt returned last week for the first time in over a month after dealing with a nagging hamstring injury that he reaggravated in Week 13, taking him out of the game after 42 snaps. Hunt missed practice on Thursday.
26. Jets
27. Giants
28. Raiders
29. Commanders
30. Steelers
31. Panthers – RG Austin Corbett is out for the season with an MCL injury.
32. Titans

Biggest Week 14 DL > OL Mismatches

1. Titans DL (6th) > Dolphins OL (25th)
2. Packers DL (10th) > Giants OL (27th)
3. Vikings DL (12th) > Raiders OL (28th)
4. Browns DL (8th) > Jaguars (21st)
5. 49ers DL (3rd) > Seahawks OL (18th)
6. Jets DL (5th) > Texans OL (16th)

Biggest Week 14 OL > DL Mismatches

1. Lions OL (5th) > Bears DL (29th)

DL > OL

1. Titans DL > Dolphins OL

Key matchups: Edge rusher Arden Key vs. LT Kendall Lamm, DTs Denico Autry & Jeffery Simmons vs. OGs Liam Eichenberg & Lester Cotton/Robert Hunt