Fantasy Fallout: Julio to the Bucs, Godwin Avoids PUP

It was an eventful Tuesday afternoon for Tom Brady‘s receiving corps. First, Chris Godwin was cleared to practice and avoided the training camp PUP list despite tearing his ACL last December. Five minutes later, news broke that the Buccaneers were signing Julio Jones. The Bucs’ early-season WR depth chart — which previously looked barren after Mike Evans and Russell Gage — is now oozing with intrigue. Let’s dig into how ETR’s Bucs projections have changed over the past 24 hours.

JULIO JONES

Old projection: WR74 on Underdog.

New projection: 44.4 catches on 69.5 targets for 612.1 yards and 3.2 TDs. WR70 on Underdog.

• We were already above-market on Julio under the belief that his ADP would jump when he signed somewhere. That’s why he only jumped a few spots in our rankings. His ADP pre-signing was WR81.
• Jones has major durability concerns entering his age-33 campaign — he has played 19 games over the past two years combined — but he still averaged 9.0 yards per target with Tennessee in 2021. PFF’s Dwain McFarland pointed out that Jones posted a WR2-caliber PFF receiving grade last season but struggled to earn targets at a serviceable rate.

• Between his advanced age and inability to earn targets with the Titans last year, Jones is still an underdog to provide weekly fantasy usability, but he’s no doubt a viable real-life weapon in certain contexts. The Buccaneers may monitor his workload and/or use him situationally during the regular season to preserve him for a postseason run. Evans, Godwin (once he returns), and Gage form one of the better WR trios in the league, which spells trouble considering Jones couldn’t wrestle targets from Nick Westbrook-Ikhine in 2021.
• However, Julio’s PFF grade and yards per target demonstrate that he still has something left in the tank, so he’s an intriguing late-round wideout. He’s unlikely to approach the numbers he has posted in past seasons, but they serve as a reminder of the talent we are talking about here. We view Jones as a depth WR in best ball leagues.

CHRIS GODWIN

Old projection: 71.5 catches on 101.2 targets for 886.2 yards and 5.5 TDs. WR30 on Underdog.

New projection: 80.3 catches on 113.7 targets for 995.4 yards and 6.1 TDs. WR20 on Underdog.

• Godwin avoiding PUP comes as a major surprise considering he tore his ACL just over seven months ago and was widely expected to miss time at the start of the season. This does not mean he’s all systems go for Week 1; it’s difficult to gauge the true probability of him playing in the season opener right now. The Bucs did just sign him to a lofty three-year extension and likely don’t even need him to make the playoffs, so it makes sense that they could be cautious with him early after such a serious injury. Regardless, getting cleared for camp signals that he’s ahead of schedule, so we bumped his target share because of that.
• The 26-year-old jumped all the way to WR20 in our Underdog rankings, but his value depends on whether you’re playing in a tournament or a normal best ball league. We only have one set of rankings for Underdog (i.e. we don’t specify tournament vs. cash), so we have to kind of find the middle ground between both formats. In tourneys, we want to focus heavily on the end of the year, when Godwin is likely to be recovered from his torn ACL regardless of whether he plays in Week 1. In standard best ball formats where every week counts the same, Godwin is a tougher sell because he may be inactive or limited early on.
• Once Godwin is healthy, he’s in perfect position to light it up. Antonio Brown led all WRs in targets per route run last year. While Julio may not be dead yet and Gage is a solid role player, Godwin could emerge as Brady’s favorite target down the stretch if he’s healthy.

RUSSELL GAGE

Old projection: 69.5 catches on 104.4 targets for 785.3 yards and 4.7 TDs. WR43 on Underdog.

New projection: 58.9 catches on 88.4 targets for 665.2 yards and 4.0 TDs. WR53 on Underdog.

• Gage’s fantasy stock had a pretty rough five-minute stretch on Tuesday. Before the Godwin and Julio news, his role as Brady’s WR2 to start the year seemed safe. While Godwin’s status is still up in the air, Gage will have to compete with Julio for snaps and targets early on and stands to lose work as the year progresses and Godwin works up to full health.
• With that being said, it’s not like he’s completely useless now. The Buccaneers have been talking him up all offseason. Brady called him personally to recruit him to Tampa Bay and said that he “has to have a big year”. Jones’ body has not held up over the past two seasons and Godwin is coming off a very serious injury. It’s sensible for the Bucs to be careful with both Julio and Godwin to preserve them for a deep playoff run. There is still a path to Gage being a major contributor in one of the league’s most potent aerial attacks. It’s just not as clear as before. We’ll see where Gage’s ADP settles, but we rank him in WR5 territory right now.

MIKE EVANS

Old projection: 77.0 catches on 126.5 targets for 1,110.9 yards and 9.5 TDs. WR7 on Underdog.

New projection: 74.9 catches on 123.3 targets for 1,081.4 yards and 9.2 TDs. WR7 on Underdog.

• Evans is primed to be Brady’s alpha WR regardless of who else is on the field, but he now faces increased target competition with the addition of Julio and a potential earlier-than-expected Godwin return. That knocks him down a couple of targets, but Evans still has eight consecutive 1,000-yard seasons under his belt and no health question marks entering the season. He remains a solid second-round pick.

OTHER BUCS PASS CATCHERS

• Tyler Johnson was the presumptive favorite for Tampa’s WR4 job, but it was expected to be a legitimate competition between him, Cyril Grayson, Jaelon Darden, and more. Needless to say, the path to fantasy productivity became significantly muddier for ancillary Bucs WRs on Tuesday.