Thursday Night Football
Baltimore @ Kansas City
Team Totals: Chiefs 24.5, Ravens 21.5
Including playoffs, Lamar Jackson has faced Steve Spagnuolo’s Chiefs unit five times in his career. Jackson’s fantasy-point totals in those games are 18.3 (2023/24), 32.3 (2021), 16.2 (2020), 21.3 (2019), and 19.6 (2018) keyed by corresponding rushing lines of 8/54/0, 16/107/2, 9/83/0, 8/46/1, and 14/67/0. Jackson stated early in camp that he got “fat and slow” in recent years and is in tip-top shape this season, dropping to 205 pounds. (His 2018 Combine weigh-in was 6-foot-2, 216.) Even against a stout K.C. defense, Jackson is a locked-in top-six QB1 play. … Derrick Henry is positioned for 15+ touches in what profiles as a close game (3-point spread) against a Kansas City outfit that last year yielded the NFL’s seventh-most yards per carry (4.5). Top Chiefs DT Chris Jones tends to take run plays off, while fellow core interior defender Derrick Nnadi ranked 65th among 67 qualified defensive tackles in PFF’s 2023 grades, and Mike Pennel is 33 years old. DL Charles Omenihu (ACL) is opening the season on reserve/PUP. Behind Henry, the Ravens kept only veteran scatback/special teamer Justice Hill and fifth-round rookie Rasheen Ali.
Zay Flowers is poised for a sophomore leap after cobbling together a 17-game pace of 80/964/15 over his final seven 2023 appearances. Smallish Chiefs top CB Trent McDuffie (5-foot-10/193) likely won’t shadow, while HC Andy Reid indicated in camp that no contenders grabbed firm hold of the corner job vacated by L’Jarius Sneed (Titans). Flowers is an upside WR2/3 bet. … Last year’s Chiefs
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