GPP Leverage: Week 13

I want to apologize for the inconsistency around leverage columns. We should be smooth sailing moving forward. Looking back at last week’s perfect lineup:

Some major takeaways here:

• We finally saw a spend-up QB above $8K be optimal and of course it was the super high-ceiling Josh Allen securing over 43 DK points. He happened to be naked here with the DeVonta Smith bring-back, however, Gabe Davis was optimal until Rashee Rice knocked him off, and he was certainly viable. It goes to show with a dual-threat QB like Allen or Hurts, you don’t always need the alpha WR (Diggs) with him as you do with someone like Kirk Cousins or Joe Burrow, where you almost always need Ja’Marr Chase or Justin Jefferson to hit a ceiling for them to be optimal.
• As Adam discussed on the solo pod, Kyren Williams was a FANTASTIC play and a GREAT example of the need to be a week early on guys. We can’t be scared off of a high-ceiling play, especially one with an elite role, just because it’s their first game back from injury. Sean McVay had shown his cards on how much he loves WIlliams, and there was no reason to think he wouldn’t have a bellcow role or at least a near-bellcow role. When I won in 2020, I did this same thing with Dalvin Cook coming off injury. It was Week 8 2020, Cook had missed Week 6 due to injury, and the Vikings had a bye in Week 7. He had a great role and was only 10% owned. He went off for over 50 points and was the most valuable piece of the lineup.
• We once again saw the double tight end, and it was only the sixth time (two more since Week 4 of this season) since Week 10 of 2020 (a total of six of 56 times for a 10.7% clip).
• It also allowed for the rare, but still underutilized, two skill-position players from the same team without a QB. That sounds like a deep-dive topic one day!
• On the receiver front, it was the week of the pivot. Nico Collins over Tank Dell. DeVonta Smith over A.J. Brown. It’s always important to be attacking these spots heavily, especially if the lesser-owned player has a ceiling. I try to hit on these spots all the time in this article, and I’ll do the same for this week in the other thoughts section toward the bottom.
• My top lineup (pictured below) finished 81st in the Milly. I swapped into Rashee Rice right before the 4:00 p.m. games as a low-owned play, and it paid dividends. We’re all still not late swapping nearly enough.

I’ve been wanting to do it for a while, but these pivot WRs all hitting made me want to round out our 2023 deep-dive series with a look at WRs, our biggest undertaking yet. Due to the way that DK changed pricing last season, I’m only going to look back at 2022 and the first 12 weeks of 2023, but that still gives us a nice round 30-slate sample. If you haven’t checked out the RB deep dive from a few weeks ago, check it out here. That one went up on Sunday morning, so you may have missed it, but it’s rather evergreen. We did tight ends in Week 5 here.

Week 1, 2022: 

1. Robbie Anderson, 24.2 points ($4,800)
2. Michael Pittman Jr., 30.1 points ($5,500)
3. Justin Jefferson, 42.4 points ($7,800)

Week 2, 2022 (WR in Flex):