Thorn: Biggest OL vs. DL Mismatches, Week 1

The goal of a real-life NFL defense is to prevent the other team from scoring points. When we select a defense to roster, we’re trying to score the most fantasy points. It’s a subtle shift in thinking, but an important one.

The optimal way to select a defense in DFS is to think in terms of big events, not points allowed. Just 2.5% of games last season ended in a shutout, and only 9.7% ended with one team being held to six points or fewer. In other words, targeting the “points allowed” category is a fool’s errand.

The real fantasy points come from sacks, forced fumbles, interceptions, and defensive touchdowns. These events are by far most likely to happen when a quarterback is under pressure. The best possible outcome on a single play for our defense is a strip sack that results in a defensive touchdown, as we get one DraftKings point for the sack, two for the fumble recovery, and six for the touchdown.

With that in mind, below you’ll find the biggest mismatches between defensive and offensive lines for Week 1. The objective is to project QB pressure through film study, injuries, scheme, coaching, and talent.

Week 1 Bye Week: N/A

DL Rankings – Week 1

1. Rams
2. Texans
3. Eagles
4. Steelers
5. Seahawks
6. Bucs
7. Broncos
8. Titans
9. Colts
10. 49ers
11. Jaguars
12. Cowboys
13. Chiefs
14. Giants
15. Browns
16. Ravens
17. Bengals
18. Patriots
19. Lions
20. Jets
21. Bills
22. Chargers
23. Commanders
24. Vikings
25. Falcons
26. Panthers
27. Raiders
28. Saints
29. Cardinals
30. Packers
31. Bears
32. Dolphins

OL Rankings – Week 1

1. Broncos
2. Eagles
3. Bucs
4. Bills
5. Colts
6. Saints
7. Bears
8. Seahawks
9. 49ers
10. Rams
11. Giants
12. Bengals
13. Jets
14. Lions
15. Chargers
16. Steelers
17. Vikings
18. Cowboys – LG Tyler Smith is out for the next 4-6 weeks due to thumb surgery.
19. Chiefs – LT Josh Simmons is out this week with a back injury.
20. Falcons
21. Ravens
22. Patriots
23. Commanders
24. Cardinals
25. Panthers
26. Raiders
27. Texans
28. Dolphins
29. Packers
30. Jaguars
31. Browns
32. Titans

Biggest Week 1 DL > OL Mismatches

1. Eagles DL (3rd) > Commanders OL (23rd)
2. Jaguars DL (11th) > Browns OL (31st)
3. Steelers DL (4th) > Falcons OL (20th)
4. Browns DL (15th) > Jaguars OL (30th)
5. Broncos DL (7th) > Chiefs OL (19th)
6. Jets DL (20th) > Titans OL (32nd)

Biggest Week 1 OL > DL Mismatches

1. Eagles OL (2nd) > Commanders DL (23rd)
2. Bears OL (7th) > Panthers DL (26th)

DL > OL

1. Eagles DL > Commanders OL

Key matchups: Edge rushers Jonathan Greenard, Jalyx Hunt, and Nolan Smith vs. OTs Brandon Coleman and Josh Conerly; DT Jalen Carter vs C Nick Allegretti

Notes: DE Jonathan Greenard is listed as day-to-day. While he’s expected to play, he’ll likely be on a pitch count. LT Laremy Tunsil is expected to be out for the majority of the season.

Washington’s pass-protection unit took a major hit with the loss of star left tackle Laremy Tunsil to a torn triceps, costing the unit its best player. This will force the sneakily underrated Brandon Coleman into the lineup, but even if he is solid, that is a steep drop-off from Tunsil’s elite level of play. With Sam Cosmi the unit’s only clear-cut high-end starter, the remaining three starters face more pressure to perform, and the Eagles have the front to ensure a slow start in Week 1.

Jalen Carter had an epic battle with Cosmi when they faced off in 2024, so that individual matchup will be must-see. Whenever Carter is isolated against center Nick Allegretti, however, the integrity of the pocket will be compromised. Add in a deep rotation off the edge led by Jonathan Greenard and Jalyx Hunt, and the young tackles will also have their hands full on the road in Philadelphia.

2. Jaguars DL > Browns OL

Key matchups: Edge rushers Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker vs OTs Spencer Fano and Tytus Howard

Notes: Browns RG Teven Jenkins went from limited in Wednesday’s practice with a back injury to out on Thursday. Rookie third-round pick Austin Barber will start in his place if he doesn’t play.

The Jaguars quietly have one of the best edge-rushing duos in the NFL, led by Josh Hines-Allen and the ascending Travon Walker on the other side. They get the luxury of facing what should be one of the league’s bottom-tier lines at home to open the year. Rookie Spencer Fano is making his first start against Hines-Allen, who has a potent blend of speed and powe