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Each week in this space, we’ll look at how ADP has changed over the past week in the industry. For FFPC and NFFC leagues, we’re looking at ADP over the last two weeks compared to ADP the two weeks prior to that. For Underdog, we’re comparing their ADP today to their ADP a week ago. Please note the sample sizes for NFFC drafts are currently very small.
*Visuals provided by Sam Hoppen
FFPC FBG ADP Change
NFFC OC ADP Change
Underdog ADP Change
This week’s risers
- Antonio Brown has seen a big ADP spike across the industry despite little news. Perhaps the industry is clueing into his potential in a full season with Tampa Bay. Brown was third in targets per route run last season and has upside if either Mike Evans or Chris Godwin miss time. We have Brown slightly overvalued now, but he’s a fine pick in the ninth round of drafts.
- The momentum continues for Laviska Shenault and Kyle Pitts who find themselves on the top risers list for the second straight week. It’s becoming tougher and tougher to squeeze out value here. Oddly, Shenault has gone the other way in NFFC leagues, but those sample sizes are really small.
- The Javonte Williams price tag is getting more expensive rapidly. Rookie RBs are often profitable selections. Early in the draft season, competition from Melvin Gordon (who has seen a big drop in ADP) was overstated, and there was a good buying opportunity on Williams. That window seems to have closed with Williams going as a Top-25 back and in Rounds 5-6 where there is a ton of opportunity cost at the WR position.
- Elijah Moore‘s ADP is skyrocketing after glowing camp reports. It sounds like he’ll be used all over the field and make an immediate impact. Moore and Williams’ ADP rise teach us a good lesson to stow away for next season: The less-hyped rookies are often bargains immediately following the NFL draft when there’s less information out there. We had hoped news of Crowder’s restructuring would soften the Moore hype, but that has not come to fruition.
- As we suspected would happen a couple of weeks ago, Ryan Tannehill‘s ADP has soared.
This week’s fallers
- Pieces of the MIA offense find themselves on the fallers list everywhere. It’s an offense we’re high on, ranking Tua Tagovailoa, Will Fuller, and DeVante Parker above their ADP positionally, and we’re only slightly behind ADP on Myles Gaskin (tough range to draft him admittedly), Jaylen Waddle, and Mike Gesicki.
- Denzel Mims‘ ADP is tanking. Reports of Mims running with the second team combined with offseason acquisitions of Corey Davis, Keelan Cole, and Elijah Moore, plus the restructuring of Jamison Crowder‘s ADP, have people panicked. We think that panic is a little bit of an overreaction. Mims is a world-class athlete who was able to carve out a decent target share when healthy his rookie season. We like him around WR70.
- Rashaad Penny‘s ADP is falling hard on Underdog following a cleanup knee surgery, which brings his health into question. We loved Penny as a late-round upside play at RB, but we’re dropping him somewhat aggressively in our rankings until we get some positive health reports.
- There’s an overreaction on FFPC over A.J. Brown‘s fantasy stock following the Julio Jones trade. His value does take a hit, but Brown is now often available at the 2-3 turn, where he’s a screaming buy.
- Some negative reports surrounding Breshad Perriman perhaps falling behind Tyrell Williams have led to a drop in his ADP across the board. We remain buyers. Perriman has the best WR1 profile on this team, and he remains one of the few very late-round WR options with a clear path to a 20% target share out of the gate.
What I’m watching now
- The Buffalo Bills’ WR situation is tough to figure out behind Stefon Diggs. We’ve recently adjusted Emmanuel Sanders upwards and think the market may be sleeping on him. There are also some question marks surrounding Cole Beasley‘s willingness to follow COVID protocols. Throw in different skill sets between Sanders, Beasley, and sophomore Gabriel Davis, and this is a situation where ADPs could change quickly based on offseason reporting, especially in light of the offense’s upside as whole.
