The goal of a real-life NFL defense is to prevent the other team from scoring points. When we select a defense to roster, we’re trying to score the most fantasy points. It’s a subtle shift in thinking, but an important one.
The optimal way to select a defense in DFS is to think in terms of big events, not points allowed. Just 2.3% of games last season ended in a shutout, and only 9.7% ended with one team being held to six points or fewer. In other words, targeting the “points allowed” category is a fool’s errand.
The real fantasy points come from sacks, forced fumbles, interceptions, and defensive touchdowns. These events are by far most likely to happen when a quarterback is under pressure. The best possible outcome on a single play for our defense is a strip sack which results in a defensive touchdown, as we get one DraftKings point for the sack, two for the fumble recovery, and six for the touchdown.
With that in mind, below are the biggest mismatches between defensive and offensive lines for Week 2. The objective is to project QB pressure through film study, injuries, scheme, coaching, and talent.
Week 2 Bye Week: N/A
DL Rankings – Week 2
- Texans
- Steelers
- Eagles
- Seahawks
- Broncos
- Chiefs
- Titans
- 49ers
- Jaguars
- Giants
- Rams – Aaron Donald is set to make his return this week. DE Myles Garrett is on short-term injured reserve for at least the next four games.
- Bucs
- Ravens
- Colts
- Patriots
- Lions
- Cowboys
- Bengals
- Browns
- Jets
- Vikings
- Bills – DT Ed Oliver is out this week with an injury.
- Chargers
- Commanders
- Panthers
- Falcons
- Raiders
- Saints
- Cardinals
- Packers
- Bears
- Dolphins
OL Rankings – Week 2
- Broncos
- Bills
- Bucs
- Colts
- Eagles – LG Landon Dickerson is on injured reserve for at least the next four games.
- Bears
- Seahawks
- 49ers
- Rams
- Jets
- Giants
- Saints
- Bengals
- Ravens
- Chargers
- Steelers
- Vikings
- Chiefs – LT Josh Simmons hasn’t practiced due to a back injury and appears doubtful to play this week.
- Patriots
- Cowboys – LG Tyler Smith is out for the next 4-6 weeks due to thumb surgery.
- Commanders
- Jaguars
- Falcons
- Cardinals
- Panthers
- Lions – RT Blake Miller and LG Christian Mahogany are expected to be out this week with injuries.
- Raiders
- Texans
- Browns
- Titans
- Dolphins
- Packers
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