Survivor Pool Breakdown: Week 2

I do not treat survivor pools with conventional wisdom, because at the end of the day, they are a 17+ leg parlay and there is no formula for that.

My process in all matters of betting is a blend, but especially in survivor. I’ll walk you through how I see each of the core games on each slate, every week, while providing schedule lookaheads and other insights. 

Be sure to check in with ETR’s ownership projections as they update later in the week.

49ers vs. Dolphins

Spread: 49ers -13.5

Total: 44.5

Ownership: 33.5%

Whether or not to play the 49ers is a two-part decision for me.

The first is: How does Miami win this game? San Francisco has the better:

• Coach
• Quarterback
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends
• Offensive Line
• Defensive Line
• Linebackers
• Secondary

The 49ers are literally better than Miami at every position group, where running back is the only one that’s close. San Francisco has a radically better/more proven coach. The talent disparity between these teams is considerable, hence the -13.5 spread.

Additionally, the areas the Dolphins’ offense could conceivably create margin are Malik Willis’ running ability paired with getting De’Von Achane into space. Unfortunately, the 49ers have one of, if not the best linebacker groups in the league, led by rangy Fred Warner. The 49ers’ front and linebacker group looks like a bad matchup for Willis, who takes bad sacks. I’m sure the Dolphins’ coaching staff will encourage him to check down more than he did on Opening Day, but I’ll be surprised if he radically changes his approach in one week against a full-strength 49ers team.

The trip back from Australia is an unwanted variable for San Francisco, but they got an extra two days of rest, so San Francisco’s routine this week shouldn’t have been disrupted (which is why I don’t like teams coming off games in Europe with no bye). If the 49ers were playing, say, Dallas coming off a loss, that would concern me considerably more than this Dolphins team.

Ultimately, it will take a catastrophe for San Francisco to lose this game. While those sometimes happen in the NFL, I’m willing to lose on that front with the 49ers, to the point that I don’t really care much about their ownership in this matchup unless I’m managing a portfolio. That’s a different calculus. But if you had one entry and you asked me if you should play the 49ers, I wouldn’t try to talk you out of it. 

Now, “Should I save San Francisco for a future matchup?” becomes the next consideration. I’m not sure why I’d want to play the 49ers in Week 3 against a better team in a division game than I would this week, so that’s a borderline cross-off. I have no real interest in Week 6 vs. Washington. Week 7 at Atlanta? I’d rather use them at home against Miami. Week 9 vs. Las Vegas is the one I’d really dig into, even though that slate has several playable options.

Ultimately, I will play San Francisco in multiple lineups unless they end up with a very bad injury report.

Best Remaining Matchups: Week 3 vs. ARI, Week 6 vs. WAS (MNF), Week 7 at ATL, Week 9 vs. LV, Week 18 at ARI

Buccaneers vs. Browns