Strength in Numbers: Actionable Week 8 Stats

We’re going to get a lot of stuff wrong, but sifting through usage metrics can help us work through what matters and what doesn’t. That’s the goal of this article: to break down the most actionable takeaways from each week in a concise, numbers-filled format and work through what’s important. Let’s get right to it.

Chuba Hubbard emerges as Carolina’s RB1 in first game post-bye

Before Week 8, Panthers coach Frank Reich had said that the backfield would be “a little bit by committee” moving forward. This wasn’t entirely surprising considering Miles Sanders sat at 3.1 yards per carry through seven weeks and currently ranks 10th worst among RBs with -49 Rush Yards Over Expectation (via NFL Next Gen Stats). Meanwhile, Chuba Hubbard had above-average efficiency entering the Panthers’ bye week and had already been playing over Sanders in passing situations, even early in the year when Sanders was fully healthy.

NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reported on Sunday morning that Hubbard was expected to be the primary early-down back with Sanders potentially mixing in more on third downs — basically a reversal of what the Panthers did in the first month of the season. That didn’t even end up being the case, as Hubbard actually played ahead of Sanders in all situations, and Raheem Blackshear ended up getting more touches than Sanders too. In total, Hubbard played 45 of 67 snaps (67%), while Sanders played just 12 snaps (Blackshear also had 10). Hubbard out-carried Sanders 15-2, although he wasn’t able to get much going with only 28 yards. Hubbard also out-routed Sanders 18-9, although his route participation on 44 Bryce Young dropbacks still left something to be desired (Hubbard did have nine pass-blocking snaps, a high number for a running back).

PFF’s Nathan Jahnke noted that Hubbard out-snapped Sanders 28-8 on early downs and 6-1 on third downs (he also played all four snaps in the 2-minute drill). Reich promised a committee, but the Panthers largely utilized Hubbard as a workhorse against Houston, which is particularly notable considering it was Thomas Brown‘s first game calling the plays. Hubbard’s inefficiency leaves the door open for Sanders to regain some sort of role if he starts being productive, but this is Hubbard’s backfield in the short term. Sanders is irrelevant for fantasy and can be dropped in all leagues, while Hubbard is a volume-dependent starter for now. This will be a backfield to keep an eye on throughout the season, as things can likely change in an instant given neither Hubbard nor Sanders are elite talents.

Jonathan Taylor minimally involved in second half after strong first 30 minutes

In the first half on Sunday, Jonathan Taylor had 11 carries for 94 yards. The Colts were trailing 21-20 at halftime.

He finished the game with 12 carries for 95 yards. Taylor was out-carrying Moss 12-7 at the time of his final carry, then Moss had the next five carries for Indianapolis and the Colts abandoned the running game as they fell behind in the third period.

Taylor still ended up with more usage than Moss in all facets. He out-snapped Moss 43-28 (setting a season high with 61% of snaps), easily out-routed Moss 28-13, out-carried his backfield mate 12-11, and finished with a 2-1 targets edge as well. Still, it was a somewhat sobering reminder that even if Taylor plays well, as he did in the first half, the Colts are committed to involving two backs and bringing JT’s workload up to speed slowly. Shane Steichen insisted after the game that Taylor has no injury, and the Colts just decided to ride Moss because he popped a big play and they thought he was the hot hand.

Without the context of when those touches came, it was actually a fairly encouraging game for the newly-minted $42 million man. Taylor’s snap share has risen in each game he’s played this year, and he finally showed the efficiency and big-play ability that made him so valuable in fantasy two seasons ago. Taylor’s playing time should continue to slowly increase; it’s just a question of how high the Colts let his snap share get this year while Moss continues to play well.

With the context of when his touches came, Week 8 should leave a sour taste in the mouth of Taylor managers, but zooming out on the upward usage trend should alleviate any long-term concerns (assuming he really doesn’t have an injury). Taylor remains a fantasy RB2 who has RB1 upside if something happens to Moss or if the Colts finally unleash their highly-paid runner.

Dameon Pierce and Devin Singletary continue backfield split for Texans