Evan Silva’s Matchups: Week 1

Friday Night Football

Kansas City @ Los Angeles (in Sao Paulo, Brazil)

Team Totals: Chiefs 24.75, Chargers 21.75

Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo conquered Justin Herbert in 2023 with five sacks and two interceptions but was otherwise diced for 17 touchdowns (to four picks) and 7.7 yards per attempt — Herbert’s career-high mark in a single season — in seven surrounding games. With a career-best 4.1 weekly carries through the ankle sprain he suffered in September, Herbert remains a confident QB2 with untapped rushing upside.

What makes this game so intriguing for showdown purposes and ‘telling a story’ is 1) Peter Overzet somehow being in the same broadcast studio as Kay Adams and Cam Newton, and 2) how the Chargers handled the offseason, responding to Herbert’s eight combined sacks and interceptions in their postseason loss to Houston by inking 6-foot-7 OL Mekhi Becton and adding not one but two lead runners (more on that below). It’s the same identity HC Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman were vested in prior to the team’s bye.

“There’s a possibility” Najee Harris (eye) suits up to carry out that approach, but his inability to practice or take handoffs from Herbert until one week before this game leaves him as a player we should glue to our benches. That logically projects No. 22 overall pick Omarion Hampton for the lion’s share of touches as an RB2/3 given the tough road ahead: Jerome Ford was the only RB to muster 80 rushing yards against Spagnuolo’s unit during the 2024 regular season, and it took a 62-yard run to do so.

Ladd McConkey led the team in targets (7), catches (5), and receiving yards (67) in his lone matchup against the Chiefs last year. An elite option against both man (2.96 Yards Per Route Run, 12th) and zone coverage (2.35, 10th), there are no holes to poke in his fringe WR1 status. … Signed to a one-year, $8.52 million deal in August, I expect Keenan Allen to hit the ground running as a PPR FLEX option after he earned a 23.5% target share for Chicago despite 23.5% of his blood being Pequod’s. No team allowed more per-game catches (9.6) in the slot, where Allen led the Bears in routes run, than last year’s Chiefs. … Quentin Johnston improved on his catches (2.2 > 3.7), yards (25.4 > 47.4), and fantasy points per game (5.5 > 11.6) in Harbaugh’s first year and is expected to start as a WR5/6 for it over second-rounder Tre’ Harris and preseason standout KeAndre Lambert-Smith. For what it’s worth, we’re projecting both rookies to combine for two catches in their first appearance. … Only the Ravens (13.9) and Saints (13.5) allowed more weekly fantasy points to enemy TEs than Kansas City, but deciphering which TE emerges for L.A. is a chore in itself. Without fifth-rounder Oronde Gadsden II, who produced 61/969/6 receiving with a 25.7% target share at 19 years old for Syracuse, on the roster last year, it was Will Dissly who popped as the team’s starter post-bye for 8.7 per-week points (and two top-seven finishes) before a shoulder injury derailed his season. It’s a situation worth monitoring in managed leagues for Week 2.

Chargers DC Jesse Minter returns nine of the 11 starters that formed a top-nine unit in both dropback (fifth) and rushing EPA/play (ninth), thwarting Patrick Mahomes and this Chiefs offense to 17 and 19 points in their two bouts. The QB14 and QB13 in points per game since 2023, Mahomes should be viewed as a low-end QB1 until Rashee Rice (suspension) returns in Week 7.

Isiah Pacheco recovered from his fractured fibula by Week 13 but came back dragging a sled behind him with 3.4 yards per carry (28th) and, eventually, 16 total touches across three postseason starts. At season’s end, no team finished with a lower rate of 10-yard runs (4.7%) than this Chiefs rushing attack, which opens the door for either Elijah Mitchell, who’s exploded for 10+ yards on 13.5% of his career carries, or Senior Bowl standout Brashard Smith, whose lone year playing running back (after converting from WR) resulted in 19 plays of 20+ yards. Unfortunately, all are projected to take a back seat to Kareem Hunt where it matters most: His 14 carries from inside the 5-yard line were not only a team-high mark, but he also tied Bijan Robinson for ninth in the league. Pacheco’s range of outcomes stretches from a top-24 finish to being a FLEX committee option in Week 2.

4.21 40-speedster Xavier Worthy emerged at season’s end (as rookies tend to do) with at least 23.5% of the team’s targets in six straight games, playoffs included. His 19% target share to Rice’s 40% during the 58 plays the two shared the field (per Sports Info Solutions) is admittedly concerning for the former’s ceiling, but we’ll worry about that another time. In this iteration of their offense, Worthy is Kansas City’s undisputed No. 1 option. … On a positive note, Travis Kelce eclipsed a 15% target share in 15 of his last 16 games without Rice. His ceiling is still questionable on single-game slates for his sinking per-week points (18.6 < 14.6 < 12.2) and YAC/reception (6.0 > 5.0 > 3.5) the past three years. With four of his career-high five touchdowns being converted end-zone targets, Noah Gray could emerge in optimals. … Historically launched to downfield, Hollywood Brown’s 10.8-yard depth of target across five appearances in this offense was a career-low mark, recording 78.5% of his catches within nine yards of the line of scrimmage. His presence notably drowned out JuJu Smith-Schuster, who totaled nine targets (5.6% share) in those five games.

Score Prediction: Chiefs 20, Chargers 17

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta

Team Totals: Bucs 25, Falcons 22.5

I took the over on this game’s 47.5-point total after these teams played to 31-26, 36-30, and 29-25 results in their last three meetings. Atlanta is starting two rookies in the secondary (FS Xavier Watts and slot CB Billy Bowman) while betting rookie EDGEs Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. can resuscitate its long-dead pass rush. Baker Mayfield tagged Falcons HC Raheem Morris’ defense for weekly fantasy finishes of QB8 and QB7 in last year’s dates. This is a matchup friendly enough for Mayfield to potentially overcome All-Pro LT Tristan Wirfs’ (knee) loss. … Bucky Irving returns as Tampa Bay’s lead back, but Bucs coaches value Rachaad White’s pass protection, which will come in handy sans Wirfs. Sean Tucker would likely need an Irving or White injury for fantasy relevance. Including playoffs, Irving averaged 18.9 touches over Tampa’s last eight games. In 2024, Irving led all NFL backs in yards after contact per carry (4.0). Irving is an upside RB1 play in this potential shootout.

The absences of Chris Godwin (ankle surgeries) and Jalen McMillan (neck, I.R.) lock in Mike Evans and Emeka Egbuka as every-down players in what profiles as a track-meet game. Evans is 32 but showed no signs of 2024 slowdown, recording career highs in yards per route run (2.6) and catch rate (67%). Per PFF, Evans has torched Falcons top CB A.J. Terrell for 2.54 YPRR in their historical meetings. … Egbuka figures to draw a combination of Atlanta’s aforementioned rookie DBs and fourth-team journeyman CB Mike Hughes in coverage. Last year’s Falcons surrendered the NFL’s fourth-most receptions to wideouts. I can envision Egbuka catching 10 balls in this game. … Cade Otton missed much of camp and the preseason with hamstring and leg injuries but practiced this week and has virtually no competition in Tampa Bay’s tight end corps. Otton logged snap rates of 97% and 92% over the last two seasons. An entirely viable TE1 streamer option, Otton will be on the field a ton in this possibly high-scoring affair. … Washed-up 32-year-old Sterling Shepard projects as the Bucs’ No. 3 receiver sans Godwin and McMillan. Shepard has averaged a pathetic 9.3 yards per reception over the past two seasons. He’s scored four touchdowns since 2020.

Atlanta’s late loss of RT Kaleb McGary to a year-ending leg injury hurts on multiple fronts; McGary was slated to be southpaw Michael Penix Jr.’s blindside protector, and was one of the best run-blocking tackles in the league. The good news is Tampa Bay lacks imposing individual pass rushers and will lean on blitzes to manufacture pressure, exposing the back end. 2024’s Bucs yielded the NFL’s eighth-most 20+ yard completions (54). Penix’s greatest strength is his downfield passing ability. … McGary’s absence damages Bijan Robinson’s situation, but Bijan still projects for hefty volume in this possible shootout. In Zac Robinson’s first year as Falcons offensive coordinator (2024), Bijan out-touched No. 2 back Tyler Allgeier 365 to 150 in a season where both players appeared in all 17 games.

This is an eruption spot for Drake London, who dominated targets (39), catches (22), yards (352), and first-down receptions (15) on Penix’s 2024 throws. Tampa Bay’s pass defense will be an attack target all year, trotting out 2022 fifth-round pick Zyon McCollum, burnable vet Jamel Dean, and rookie slot defender Jacob Parrish at corner. London was a magnet for Penix’s throws all camp. … Darnell Mooney missed all of August with a shoulder injury but sounds likelier than not to play in Week 1. A vertical stretcher whose game presents glaring matchup issues for Tampa Bay’s back end, Mooney clapped Todd Bowles’ defense for 2024 receiving lines of 9/105/2 and 4/86/1. … Ray-Ray McCloud returns as Atlanta’s top slot guy after last year’s 62/686/1 finish in 17 games. McCloud is a low-ceiling role player. … Annual disappointment Kyle Pitts is quietly set up for Week 1 success; last year’s Bucs gave up the NFL’s second-most yards to tight ends (1,144), while Pitts’ last three stat lines against Tampa Bay are 4/91/2, 7/88/0, and 3/57/1. Pitts belongs firmly on DFS tournament radars.

Score Prediction: Bucs 28, Falcons 27