Thorn: Biggest OL vs. DL Mismatches, Week 16

The goal of a real-life NFL defense is to prevent the other team from scoring points. When we select a defense to roster, we’re trying to score the most fantasy points. It’s a subtle shift in thinking, but an important one.

The optimal way to select a defense in DFS is to think in terms of big events, not points allowed. Just 2.3% of games last season ended in a shutout, and only 9.7% ended with one team being held to six points or fewer. In other words, targeting the “points allowed” category is a fool’s errand.

The real fantasy points come from sacks, forced fumbles, interceptions, and defensive touchdowns. These events are by far most likely to happen when a quarterback is under pressure. The best possible outcome on a single play for our defense is a strip sack which results in a defensive touchdown, as we get one DraftKings point for the sack, two for the fumble recovery, and six for the touchdown.

With that in mind, below you’ll find the biggest mismatches between defensive and offensive lines for Week 16. The objective is to project QB pressure through film study, injuries, scheme, coaching, and talent.

Week 16 Bye: N/A

DL Rankings – Week 16

1. Texans
2. Broncos
3. Rams
4. Seahawks
5. Browns
6. Steelers
7. Vikings
8. Lions
9. Chiefs
10. Jaguars
11. Titans
12. Cowboys
13. Bills
14. Giants
15. Colts
16. Falcons
17. Cardinals
18. Eagles – DT Jalen Carter remains out with shoulder injuries.
19. Patriots – DT Milton Williams went on short-term injured reserve after a Week 11 ankle injury.
20. Dolphins
21. Bucs
22. Packers – Edge rusher Micah Parsons is out for the year with a torn ACL.
23. 49ers
24. Raiders
25. Ravens
26. Jets
27. Chargers
28. Saints
29. Bears
30. Commanders
31. Bengals – DE Trey Hendrickson remains out.
32. Panthers