Editor’s Note: This Matchup was written by John Daigle, with input from Evan Silva.
Baltimore vs. Dallas (in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)
Team Totals: Ravens 28.5, Cowboys 24.5
Members of the Brazilian club CR Flamengo complained the field at Maracanã Stadium is in a “deplorable” state, with “bumps everywhere” on the “rapidly deteriorating” turf. For what it’s worth, the Packers and Eagles opened (in a different stadium) in Brazil last year, combining for 824 yards and 63 points despite both teams finishing fifth and sixth in yards per play allowed (highlighting the volatility of said conditions).
Lamar Jackson’s floor is no concern, as the Cowboys let Jaxson Dart lead his position in carries (11) in Week 1 before ceding 69 rushing yards to Jayden Daniels in one half. If Dak Prescott punches back, Lamar can match Josh Allen’s ceiling: Only the Saints have allowed a higher Success Rate than Dallas’ secondary through the air, and Jackson leads the league with 10.7 yards per attempt from a clean pocket. … 54% of Baltimore’s carries under new OC Declan Doyle have been designed as zone runs, which Dallas struggled to defend for 32/169/4 and 5.2 yards per carry against the Giants and Commanders. Given that Derrick Henry’s target share increased (albeit slightly) to 10.3% without Zay Flowers (hamstring) in Week 2, three touchdowns are in the Big Dog’s range of outcomes.
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