NBA Matchups: October 20

BOS @ DET | PHI @ NYK | OKC @ SAS

Welcome back! It’s my seventh season of writing NBA Matchups, and it’s been a fun ride along the way. If you’re new, I don’t look at DFS prices; I really just write this from a macro and micro basketball standpoint. In the stats and notes section, the first paragraph will always be about the macro stuff. It’ll cover macro defensive tendencies or trends with some offensive focal points at the team level. After that, it’ll get into the player-specific stuff.

Let’s have a great season!

Boston Celtics at Detroit Pistons

Team Totals: Celtics 111.5, Pistons 110.5

Injury Report: Taurean Prince (Q, personal), Devin Carter (O, illness)

Celtics projected starters: Derrick White, Paul George, Jayson Tatum, Jordan Walsh, Mitchell Robinson

Pistons projected starters: Cade Cunningham, Duncan Robinson, Ausar Thompson, John Collins, Jalen Duren

Mazzulla quotes: Said he didn’t think much of Walsh starting and that they like him out there to guard the best player on the other team, said they went double big in a preseason game to see what it looked like, said Mitchell Robinson is one of the smartest players he’s been around, said they are always pushing Payton Pritchard to be out of his comfort zone (had 11 assists in a preseason game).

Bickerstaff quotes: Said Collins with Duren allows them to be more creative offensively, said they’re trying different lineups and that’s why they have Jenkins next to Cade a bunch.

Stats and Notes: 

*These two teams should be excellent rebounding teams, with both teams ranking in the top four for rebounding rate last year (Boston third; Pistons fourth). The Celtics may be the favorite for rebounding rate this year with Mitchell Robinson there and Jayson Tatum ready for Opening Day (they led the preseason in TRB%, had an incredible 80.2 DRB%). The Celtics were also an elite rim defense last year, and they may be even better this year. Boston also played at a very slow offensive pace last year, which makes it a tough environment for its opponents. Plus, the Celtics were a big 3-point funnel last year, and the Pistons were 29th in 3-point frequency. On the other side, Boston’s offense was cooking in the preseason with a league-high 126.0 PPG (first in transition points+/poss, too) while the Pistons ranked first in preseason halfcourt defense. The Celtics will look to fire away on their 3-point shooting, especially with the Pistons having an elite rim defense. 

*Jayson Tatum enters this season with one of the biggest roles in the NBA. He handled the ball a ton in the preseason with massive shot volume to rank third in the NBA in FGAs per 100 (minimum 20 MPG, two games). The Pistons should be putting Ausar Thompson on him a ton to make this a tougher spot, but Detroit was not putting Ausar on Jaylen Brown much last year in a similar spot (usually was on Pritchard). If I’m wrong and the Pistons do the same thing with Ausar not on JT, it’s worth noting that Brown went nuts against the Pistons for 35.0 PPG. Regardless, I like this spot for Tatum.

*Payton Pritchard’s passing was a huge story, as he led the preseason in assists per game (eighth per 100). We’re a long way from Jaylen Brown saying that PP will have big games in March against the Pistons, but Pritchard should be in a good spot. The Pistons are going to protect the paint, and Tatum having a tougher time with Ausar could funnel more shots to Pritchard. As noted above, the Pistons did put Ausar on PP a bunch last year, but I don’t think they will here. I like this spot a lot for Pritchard.