Welcome to the fourth playoff edition of GPP Leverage. This article is going to be a catch-all space for my GPP thoughts. In every article I’ll address some of the relevant GPP plays for that day’s slate, but some of the articles will be more focused on plays and others more focused on strategy. Today is going to be a slate-specific article after we covered a more strategy-based article on small slates Tuesday.
Some of the most popular questions I get each day when we do our live show revolves around groupings and rules that I’m utilizing for my MME play. Today, we’re going to go through some of those groups more specifically, but we always want to focus on the process over the outcome. It’s more important for you to learn the thought process behind these groups than what the groups are. The more you can develop these concepts on your own, the more success you’ll have as a GPP player.
Slate Overview
Let’s start with a general overview of the slate. The macro environment impacts the groups we set so let’s take a look at the landscape we’re working with on Saturday’s slate. As a reminder, this content is all geared towards the full three-game slate. Every slate type requires different rules, so many of these would not be applicable on the two-game late slate.
This is a three-game slate where two of the games have spreads greater than 13 and the other game is at 5. Injuries are impacting the slate substantially with Damian Lillard OUT and Russell Westbrook back IN. Lillard’s absence opens up a lot of upside in the Portland scorers while Westbrook’s return puts pressure on the upside of all the Houston options. This makes the slate a favorable one to attack game stacks, but a frustrating one as the best spots to game stack are likely the games with the biggest blowout risk.
Groups and Rules
Orlando vs. Milwaukee
Group 1: Max 1 of James Ennis-Gary Clark-Khem Birch
The three Magic role players are typically competing for two positions on the floor at the same time and all three need some semblance of rebounding to be able to get there. The cheap price tags make them viable plays with Birch restricted to FanDuel simply because of his PF eligibility, but it seems quite unlikely that you see ceiling performances from two of them. Even on a small three-game slate. If you wanted to be more liberal with this rule you could make it a Max 2, but I think Max 1 is effective. I would also employ a Max 1 of Vucevic-Birch on FanDuel.
Group 2: IF Vucevic, then between 1-3 of Middleton-Bledsoe-Antetokounmpo-B. Lopez
Any Vucevic lineup should have exposure from one of Milwaukee’s core players coming back. If Vucevic fails, this game is likely a blowout. If he succeeds, there is a chance the Bucks get their full minutes at which point one of them is very likely to end up in the optimal lineup.
Group 3: IF Fournier, then between 1-3 of Middleton-Bledsoe-Antetokounmpo-B. Lopez
I feel similarly about Evan Fournier as I do Vucevic. IF he’s having a ceiling game worthy of GPP ownership, it’s likely in an environment that a Bucks player succeeds.
Group 4: Max 3 of Middleton-Bledsoe-Antetokoumpo-Lopez
This is usually a Max 2 rule for me and I think that approach is still viable but with a really small slate due to blowout risk and the return of Westbrook condensing HOU projections, I think a little more liberal Max 3 rule makes sense.
Group 5: Max 2 of Fournier-Ross-Augustin-Fultz
I tend to think the Magic can’t keep the game close without Vucevic going off so I try to restrict three-guard Magic lineups from getting into my play.
Houston vs. Oklahoma City
Group 6: IF Harden, then between 1-3 of Paul-Schroder-Gallinari-SGA-Adams-Dort
I think any Harden lineup should be correlated with OKC players coming back. There are certainly paths where Harden goes nuts and the Rockets blowout the Thunder but I think they’re less likely than the same issue happening with Giannis or LeBron/AD on this slate, so I want to correlate him with opposing players.
Group 7: Max 1 Dort-Adams-Gallinari
With the Thunder using small-ball lineups to close you’re starting to see how Gallinari-Adams-Dort upside all conflicts with one another. If Dort stays out of foul trouble and he’s closing then Adams’ minutes upside is limited to the very low 30s. If Adams is playing heavy minutes it’s at either Dort or Gallinari’s expense.
Group 8: Max 2 Green-Tucker-Covington-House-Gordon
Similarly to the Thunder, the Rockets’ minutes have been a trade-off between Covington-Green-Tucker most games in this series. The Rockets did cut out McLemore which allowed all three to get into the 30s last game but their skill sets overlap and it would seem rare for all three to go off. This is a rule that impacts FanDuel quite a bit given the roster requirements so you might want to use it more loosely there (for a high percentage of lineups but maybe not all) but on DraftKings we find it hard to imagine scenarios where all three are in the winning lineup given how their playing time and skill-sets overlap. We’ve added Danuel House and Eric Gordon to this list as well given the return of Russell Westbrook.
Portland vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Group 9: IF Dwight Howard, zero of Anthony Davis or LeBron James
There are paths to Dwight Howard landing in the optimal lineup given the tighter pricing and the options at center largely priced appropriately. We believe if it happens, it’s happening via a Lakers blowout that extends Howard’s minutes into garbage time as they did in Game 4. If that scenario plays out, it’s likely LeBron or Davis see more limited minutes. Either guy can pile up big scores in a short amount of time but would they be able to eclipse Giannis-Harden? Unlikely. We’d amend this rule to Max 1 if Westbrook is ruled in as it would mitigate some of Harden’s upside and base projection.
Group 10: IF Mario Hezonja, at most 1 of Jusuf Nurkic-Carmelo Anthony-C.J. McCollum
We think the best route for Hezonja as a viable DFS play is via a blowout. If the Blazers get blown out, we think it’s hard for two of their main scorers to hit.
Group 11: Max 1 of Kyle Kuzma or Anthony Davis
This is a rule you might want to remove on FanDuel because of PF limitations but in general Kuzma’s playing time has been inversely correlated with Anthony Davis this round.
Group 12: Max 1 of Hassan Whiteside or Jusuf Nurkic (only necessary on DK because of positional limits)
We’re skeptical the Blazers will play Whiteside and Nurkic much together after disastrous results last game that led to Whiteside getting benched in favor of Gary Trent to start the second half. If they do, the rates on Whiteside have been quite modest and they’re always competing for the same stats. We think it’s unlikely they’d end up in the same winning lineup together.
Group 13: Max 1 of Danny Green, Alex Caruso, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
With J.R. Smith seeing more significant minutes in Game 4, the upside on any of these options seems limited. Caruso and Green got a little blowout time together but we see more paths for all three getting stuck in the mid-20s minutes where their limited point-per-minute production holds them back. We’re comfortable limiting to one but if you’re concerned about just needing salary relief in general on the slate you can expand to two.
