I play roughly 60% of my action each week in “cash games.” Cash games refer to any contest in which roughly 50% of the field gets paid out, such as head-to-head, double up or 50/50. I try to get as much head-to-head action as I can every week and then supplement that with other cash games.
Each week, I’ll review my cash-game lineup in this space. Sometimes I’ll lose, but hopefully I’ll win more often. Either way, I’ll post it here and give you my thought process.
I’ve never seen a RB slate like this in my seven years of playing seriously on DraftKings. There were 10 (!) who I thought were legit in play for cash. I typically don’t like slates like this because it’s hard for our opponent to make mistakes — any three of the 10 would have been fine.
MY MUST PLAYS
* The Browns’ RB room was decimated by injuries and COVID. Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, John Kelly, and Demetric Felton were all out. That left D’Ernest Johnson as the three-down plus goal-line back running behind a top-3 offensive line. Although the game environment wasn’t great, I’m never fading this setup at $4700 in cash.
* We knew Mark Ingram would be the feature back with Alvin Kamara (foot) sidelined. We could certainly poke holes in him as an 11-year vet with Taysom Hill lurking around the goal-line. But the pass-game role Ingram has shown since re-joining the Saints coupled with the staff’s comfort level with him and the offensive line strength was all really strong. Similar to D’Ernest, these spots are not ones I typically fade in cash at $4500.
* Davante Adams is one of the most talented WRs in the NFL, has a unique goal-line role for a WR, has held a 30+% target share for multiple seasons, and gets high-quality QB play from Aaron Rodgers. This is the stuff cash-game wideouts are made of. Adams was at least $500 underpriced in this spot, if not more.
MY WANT PLAYS
* This was an incredibly strong slate for RBs and a really weak one for WRs. It set up a situation where we almost had to overspend at wideout. That said, Mike Evans was a near-must given the construction of the slate and the spot. With Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown out, plus Chris Godwin (foot) possibly less than 100%, we could boost Evans’ target share a little. And the Washington defense has been arguably the biggest pass funnel in the league. I of course would have preferred Stef Diggs, Justin Jefferson, or AJ Brown, but they would not fit.
* I wanted to play the white hot Titans pass rush against Trevor Siemian as my D/ST. But as always, I’m most willing to just punt if off at defense in cash. The Lions D against Mason Rudolph in cold weather was reasonable at $2300. If I had another $100 I would have played Panthers against Colt McCoy.
* Dak Prescott can’t be a “must” at $6900 because the Cowboys can turn run-heavy and his rushing expectation is low. But with Amari/Lamb/Gallup/Schultz/Pollard all rocking in the pass game, it’s hard for Dak to fail in most game flows. The only QBs I really considered for cash were Dak $6900, Justin Herbert $7300 and Josh Allen $7900. While I’ve prioritized spending up at quarterback this season, I’m still most willing to go to the cheap end of strong plays there.
* Dan Arnold had a 19.4% target share over his last four games with the Jaguars. That’s elite for any player priced at $3500, let alone someone athletic like Arnold. This was also a spot where the Jags would likely be trailing, setting up garbage-time chances over the middle.
* I spent a lot of Sunday morning looking at 2v2s surrounding James Conner, Keenan Allen, Jonathan Taylor, and Jerry Jeudy. Obviously, JT at home against the Jags with Marlon Mack scratched was a fantastic play. And I had doubts about Conner facing an underrated Panthers defense ranked 2nd in yards per play allowed, with Colt McCoy lowering the offensive floor.
But Conner’s level of play has been so high, and Jeudy was facing so much target competition that I decided to play it on the “safe” side. That meant Conner, Keenan and Arnold over Taylor, Jeudy and Conklin. I hedged this by playing a ton of Jonathan Taylor in tournaments.
Week 10 Results
I certainly ran hot to get fluky TDs from both Mike Evans and James Conner — they were on their way to really poor games. And Jonathan Taylor was a bit unlucky not to drop a 40-ball on me. That said, I was happy with the decision to trust our projections (this team was our straight optimal) despite some “sexier” options that featured Jerry Jeudy.
Year-To-Date Results
Week 1: 124.86 points, won 70.5% of head-to-heads
Week 2: 92.88 points, won 5.7% of head-to-heads
Week 3: 151.52 points, won 63.8% of head-to-heads
Week 4: 104.92 points, won 8.1% of head-to-heads
Week 5: 187.08 points, won 82.7% of head-to-heads
Week 6: 147.98 points, won 82.3% of head-to-heads
Week 7: 163.38 points, won 88.1% of head-to-heads
Week 8: 135.62 points, won 37.0% of head-to-heads
Week 9: 127.54 points, won 81.4% of head-to-heads
Week 10: 152.74 points, won 90.0% of head-to-heads
