Last season, Chase Edmonds and James Conner were one of the most dynamic 1-2 punches in the league, at least until Edmonds got hurt. Both players earned themselves some money with their 2021 play — which is good for them personally but made it difficult for the Cardinals to re-sign both. Both guys got paid right away when the legal tampering period opened on Monday, with Edmonds getting a two-year, $12.6 million contract with the Dolphins and Conner returning to the desert on a three-year, $21 million deal. Let’s look at how ETR’s projections changed as a result of Edmonds’ exit.
CHASE EDMONDS
Old projection: 130.9 carries for 592.1 yards and 3.5 touchdowns, 41.7 catches on 54.0 targets for 322.6 yards and 1.7 touchdowns. RB37 on Underdog.
New projection: 167.0 carries for 749.7 yards and 4.2 touchdowns, 48.0 catches on 62.4 targets for 369.0 yards and 1.8 touchdowns. RB26 on Underdog.
- Edmonds joins the Dolphins and immediately assumes the RB1 role, but how much work he’ll get — especially on the ground — remains up for debate. The 25-year-old has spent four NFL seasons (two with a legitimate role) and never averaged more than 9.7 carries per game. The Dolphins only have Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed behind Edmonds, so they could add a complementary between-the-tackles runner alongside their new back, similar to what the Cardinals did last year with Edmonds and Conner. We have baked in the risk of Miami picking up another runner, so Edmonds’ rushing attempts market share could also grow slightly if the Dolphins stand pat with their current backfield.
- Edmonds figures to be the Dolphins’ primary pass-catching back right away, even if they add someone to siphon early-down and goal-line work. That gives him a solid floor as a mid-round pick.
- Scheme-wise, Edmonds enters a desirable situation with Mike McDaniel calling the shots. From 2017-21, McDaniel coached in the most running back-friendly attack in the league with the 49ers. He figures to implement a Kyle Shanahan-type offense, which has been very kind to running backs historically.
OTHER DOLPHINS PLAYERS
- Gaskin and Ahmed are currently the only two other running backs under contract for Miami. With Edmonds presumably taking over the passing-down role, it’s difficult to imagine either being very relevant barring injury. Neither has the body type of a short-yardage back, which is the one role the Dolphins could be looking to bring in alongside Edmonds. Especially with a new coaching staff, this isn’t exactly a vote of confidence in favor of the incumbent backs.
JAMES CONNER
Old projection: 180.6 carries for 729.2 yards and 7.7 touchdowns, 23.8 catches on 29.7 targets for 196.7 yards and 1.0 touchdowns. RB27 on Underdog.
New projection: 211.6 carries for 854.5 yards and 9.0 touchdowns, 33.1 catches on 41.2 targets for 273.2 yards and 1.4 touchdowns. RB20 on Underdog.
- Three years and $21 million is not chump change for a running back, indicating the Cardinals view Conner as a valuable part of their offense. With that being said, Conner has an alarming medical history and turns 27 in May, so Arizona may look to bring in another back to fill the Edmonds role. Right now, all they have behind Conner is Eno Benjamin and Jonathan Ward, who have 43 combined career carries.
- We bumped Conner’s target share and rushing attempts market share now that Edmonds is gone, but we played it slightly conservatively since the Cardinals seem likely to add another running back. If summer arrives and Arizona hasn’t added anyone, Conner’s projection would likely increase.
OTHER CARDINALS PLAYERS
- For the reasons outlined above, Benjamin still is not popping in our projections even though he is currently the RB2 on the Cardinals’ depth chart. He had a productive dual-threat prospect profile coming out of Arizona State, but he was a gameday inactive as a rookie and notched only 34 carries in 2021 despite Edmonds getting hurt. It’s telling that the Cardinals turned Conner into an every-down workhorse when Edmonds went down rather than sliding more work to Benjamin. There’s certainly a path to fantasy relevancy for Benjamin though, and the Cardinals’ actions over the next few months will indicate their level of faith in the third-year back.
