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NOTABLE INACTIVES

 

 

SHOWDOWN STRATEGY & TRENDS

We’ve spent the past three seasons gathering a large enough sample to confidently review contest results to identify where we have an edge and how we can improve our overall lineup-building process. We recommend reviewing this article to understand macro concepts suited for beating large-field showdown tournaments. There you’ll find our thoughts on proper captain selection, optimal roster construction, and some ideas on how to ensure your lineups aren’t duplicated. Like most DFS formats, the best showdown lineups are created where uniqueness, optimal correlation, and max projected points meet. We’ll continually update this section with the latest showdown strategy and trends as the 2022 season progresses. Below you can review winning lineups from the 2020-22 seasons to better familiarize yourself with winning roster construction.

 

Historical Winning Lineups

Note: ‘Total ownership’ is calculated using each player’s Total Ownership % (Flex+CPT) from the flagship GPP on DraftKings

 

Packers at Bears ($47700 Salary Used)  (191.66% Total Ownership): Captain Allen Robinson, Aaron Rodgers, Tarik Cohen, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Jimmy Graham, Packers DST – Lineup entered (3) times

Steelers at Patriots ($46100) (223.0%): Captain Tom Brady, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Julian Edelman, Phillip Dorsett, Stephen Gostkowski, Rex Burkhead – (1)

Texans at Saints ($49900) (244.79%): Captain DeAndre Hopkins, Deshaun Watson, Michael Thomas, Ted Ginn Jr., Kenny Stills, Wil Lutz – (13)

Broncos at Raiders ($49000) (240.32%): Captain Josh Jacobs, Emmanuel Sanders, Courtland Sutton, Tyrell Williams, Darren Waller, Brandon McManus – (1)

Buccaneers at Panthers ($48500) (225.70%): Captain Chris Godwin, Cam Newton, Curtis Samuel, D.J. Moore, Greg Olsen, Joey Slye – (1)

Eagles at Falcons ($49300) (253.86%): Captain Julio Jones, Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan, Calvin Ridley, Nelson Agholor, Mack Hollins

Browns at Jets ($48300) (237.27%): Captain Odell Beckham Jr., Nick Chubb, Le’Veon Bell, Browns DST, Austin Seibert, D’ernest Johnson – (4)

Titans at Jaguars ($48600) (258.3%): Captain Marcus Mariota, Leonard Fournette, Gardner Minshew, D.J. Chark Jr., Jaguars DST, Adam Humphries – (1)

Rams at Browns ($49700) (238.92%): Captain Cooper Kupp, Jared Goff, Brandin Cooks, Nick Chubb, Browns DST, Greg Zuerlein – 

Bears at Redskins ($50000) (235.64%): Captain Mitchell Trubisky, Case Keenum, Terry McLaurin, Bears DST, Paul Richardson Jr., Taylor Gabriel – (11)

Eagles at Packers ($47300) (245.93%): Captain Jordan Howard, Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Carson Wentz, Jimmy Graham, Geronimo Allison – (4)

Cowboys at Saints ($47800) (231.88%): Captain Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys DST, Wil Lutz, Saints DST – (3)

Bengals at Steelers ($48700) (198.22%): Captain James Conner, Mason Rudolph, Joe Mixon, Diontae Johnson, Steelers DST, Jaylen Samuels – (1)

Rams at Seahawks ($50000) (273.06%): Captain Cooper Kupp, Chris Carson, Gerald Everett, Jared Goff, Russell Wilson, Greg Zuerlein – (748)

Colts at Chiefs ($47200) (241.73%): Captain Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Jacoby Brissett, Marlon Mack, Colts DST, Byron Pringle – (1)

Browns at 49ers ($46400) (239.74%): Captain Matt Breida, Jarvis Landry, Jimmy Garoppolo, George Kittle, Tevin Coleman, 49ers DST – (4)

Giants at Patriots ($46700) (322.95%): Captain Patriots DST, Tom Brady, Julian Edelman, Golden Tate, James White, Brandon Bolden – (53)

Steelers at Chargers ($44700) (198.69%): Captain James Conner, Philip Rivers, Hunter Henry, Mike Williams, Benny Snell Jr., Steelers DST – (1)

Lions at Packers ($49800) (265.43%): Captain Matt Prater, Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Kenny Golladay, Kerryon Johnson, Jamaal Williams  – (23)

Chiefs at Broncos ($47000) (225.37%): Captain Chief DST, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Emmanuel Sanders, Courtland Sutton, Royce Freeman – (1)

Eagles at Cowboys ($46300) (231.89%): Captain Ezekiel Elliott, Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, Cowboys DST, Dallas Goedert, Brett Maher – (4)

Patriots at Jets ($48800) (242.5%): Captain Patriots DST, Julian Edelman, Sony Michel, James White, Phillip Dorsett, Demaryius Thomas – (73)

Redskins at Vikings ($49900) (262.92%): Captain Dalvin Cook, Stefon Diggs, Vikings DST, Adrian Peterson, Dan Bailey, Dustin Hopkins – (343)

Packers at Chiefs ($49600) (244.78%): Captain Aaron Jones, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Moore, Jamaal Williams, Damien Williams, Mecole Hardman – (2)

Dolphins at Steelers ($49700) (259.67%): Captain JuJu Smith-Schuster, James Conner, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Diontae Johnson, Allen Hurns, Chris Boswell – (8) 

49ers at Cardinals ($48800) (252.12%): Captain Kenyan Drake, Jimmy Garoppolo, Kyler Murray, George Kittle, Emmanuel Sanders, Andy Isabella – (2)

Patriots at Ravens ($49600) (236.43%): Captain Julian Edelman, Lamar Jackson, James White, Mark Ingram III, Mohamed Sanu, Nick Boyle – (1)

Cowboys at Giants ($48200) (215.3%): Captain Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, Daniel Jones, Cowboys DST, Jason Witten, Brett Maher – (3)

Chargers at Raiders ($49600) (284.1%): Captain Melvin Gordon III, Philip Rivers, Josh Jacobs, Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler, Raiders DST – (12)

Vikings at Cowboys ($49600) (215.38%): Captain Randall Cobb, Dalvin Cook, Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, Kyle Rudolph, Irv Smith Jr. – (3)

Seahawks at 49ers ($49900) (240.23%): Captain Chris Carson, Russell Wilson, Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers DST, Deebo Samuel, Jacob Hollister – (24)

Steelers at Browns ($49100) (219.24%): Captain Baker Mayfield, Jaylen Samuels, Mason Rudolph, Jarvis Landry, Kareem Hunt, Browns DST – (2)

Bears at Rams ($49800) (290.15%): Captain Todd Gurley II, Cooper Kupp, Mitchell Trubisky, Taylor Gabriel, Rams DST, Tarik Cohen – (59)

Chiefs at Chargers ($49500) (182.25%): Captain Austin Ekeler, Travis Kelce, Keenan Allen, Philip Rivers, Hunter Henry, LeSean McCoy – (14)

Colts at Texans ($49900) (258.29%): Captain DeAndre Hopkins, Deshaun Watson, Will Fuller, Jonathan Williams, Eric Ebron, Ka’imi Fairbairn – (144)

Packers at 49ers ($46200) (217.84%): Captain George Kittle, Jimmy Garoppolo, Davante Adams, Jamaal Williams, Raheem Mostert, Chase McLaughlin – (1)

Ravens at Rams ($49800) (196.98%): Captain Lamar Jackson, Mark Ingram II, Marquise Brown, Robert Woods, Willie Snead IV, Tyler Higbee – (15)

Saints at Falcons: Captain Matt Ryan, Saints DST, Russell Gage, Alvin Kamara, Wil Lutz, Calvin Ridley – (1)

Patriots at Texans ($49400) (256.39%): Captain Duke Johnson, Tom Brady, Deshaun Watson, Julian Edelman, James White, Kenny Stills – (74)

Vikings at Seahawks ($49700) (251.83%): Captain Rashaad Penny, Russell Wilson, Dalvin Cook, Chris Carson, Kirk Cousins, David Moore – (22)

Cowboys at Bears ($49400) (232.33%): Captain Mitchell Trubisky, Ezekiel Elliott, Allen Robinson II, Michael Gallup, Anthony Miller, J.P. Holtz – (2)

Giants at Eagles ($47000) (200.3%): Captain Darius Slayton, Carson Wentz, Zach Ertz, Eli Manning, Sterling Shepard, Boston Scott – (1)

Jets at Ravens ($49300) (212.82%): Captain Lamar Jackson, Mark Ingram II, Mark Andrews, Jamison Crowder, Seth Roberts, Miles Boykin – (15)

Bills at Steelers ($47100) (262.26%): Captain Bills DST, Josh Allen, James Conner, John Brown, James Washington, Nick Vannett – (4) 

Colts at Saints ($47500) (248.77%): Captain Michael Thomas, Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, Wil Lutz, Taysom Hill, Jordan Wilkins – (1)

Rams at 49ers ($49600) (241.43%): Captain Tyler Higbee, Jared Goff, George Kittle, Robert Woods, Deebo Samuel, Brandin Cooks – (4)

Chiefs at Bears ($49400) (252.12%): Captain Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Allen Robinson, Damien Williams, Harrison Butker, Javon Wims – (7)

Packers at Vikings ($47600) (202.83%): Captain Aaron Jones, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, Packers DST, Mason Crosby, Ameer Abdullah

49ers at Seahawks ($49900) (198.36%): Captain Deebo Samuel, Russell Wilson, Raheem Mostert, D.K. Metcalf, Travis Homer, Kyle Juszczyk

Titans at Patriots ($49000) (218.14%): Captain Derrick Henry, Julian Edelman, James White, Rex Burkhead, Titans DST, Nick Folk – (1)

Seahawks at Eagles ($46400) (225.92%): Captain D.K. Metcalf, Russell Wilson, Dallas Goedert, Marshawn Lynch, Jake Elliot, Seahawks DST

Titans at Ravens ($50000) (225.02%): Captain Marquise Brown, Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Ryan Tannehill, Hayden Hurst, Kalif Raymond – (9)

Seahawks at Packers ($49800) (240.48%): Captain Davante Adams, Russell Wilson, Aaron Jones, Tyler Lockett, Jason Myers, Luke Willson – (3)

Packers at 49ers ($49600) (257.82%): Captain Raheem Mostert, Davante Adams, Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, 49ers DST, Robbie Gould – (30)

2020:

Texans at Chiefs ($49600) (205.03%): Captain Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Deshaun Watson, Will Fuller V, David Johnson, Sammy Watkins, Jordan Akins- (36)

Cowboys at Rams ($49200) (242.03%): Captain Malcom Brown, Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, Robert Woods, Sam Sloman – (2)

Steelers at Giants ($49600) (282.00%): Captain Darius Slayton, Saquon Barkley, Ben Roethlisberger, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Daniel Jones, Benny Snell – (16)

Titans at Broncos ($47000) (268.48%): Captain Corey Davis, Derrick Henry, Ryan Tannehill, Melvin Gordon III, Noah Fant, Adam Humphries – (1)

Bengals at Browns ($49800) (284.59%): Captain Nick Chubb, Joe Burrow, Odell Beckham, Kareem Hunt, Tyler Boyd, C.J. Uzomah – (248)

Patriots at Seahawks ($49200) (249.63%): Captain Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, Julian Edelman, N’Keal Harry, Damiere Byrd, David Moore – (37)

Saints at Raiders ($49500) (249.99%): Captain Alvin Kamara, Drew Brees, Darren Waller, Daniel Carlson, Jalen Richard – (23)

Dolphins at Jaguars ($48300) (237.04%): Captain James Robinson, Ryan Fitzpatrick, DeVante Parker, Myles Gaskin, Preston Williams, Dolphins DST – (2)

Packers at Saints ($48300) (257.44%): Captain Alvin Kamara, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Allen Lazard, Robert Tonyan, Marcedes Lewis – (2)

Chiefs at Ravens ($50000) (213.05%): Captain Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Mecole Hardman, Devin Duvernay – (71)

Broncos at Jets ($49300) (242.83%): Captain Melvin Gordon III, Sam Darnold, Jamison Crowder, Tim Patrick, Brandon McManus, Sam Ficken – (46)

Eagles at 49ers ($49900) (255.58%): Captain George Kittle, Carson Wentz, Jerick McKinnon, Brandon Aiyuk, Greg Ward, Eagles DST – (1)

Falcons at Packers ($45600) (235.72%): Captain Aaron Jones, Aaron Rodgers, Todd Gurley II, Robert Tonyan, Jamaal Williams, Olamide Zaccheus – (1)

Buccaneers at Bears ($49900) (260.24%): Captain Ronald Jones, Allen Robinson, David Montgomery, Mike Evans, Jimmy Graham, Ryan Succop – (179)

Vikings at Seahawks ($48500) (237.22%): Captain Adam Thielen, Russell Wilson, DK Metcalf, Chris Carson, Alexander Mattison, Irv Smith – (8)

Chargers at Saints ($49700) (292.49%): Captain Mike Williams, Alvin Kamara, Drew Brees, Justin Herbert, Emmanuel Sanders, Wil Lutz – (157)

Bills at Titans ($48700) (205.34%): Captain Ryan Tannehill, Stefon Diggs, A.J. Brown, Jonnu Smith, Cole Beasley, T.J. Yeldon – (7)

Rams at 49ers ($49800) (238.15%): Captain George Kittle, Jared Goff, Jimmy Garoppolo, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Josh Reynolds – (42)

Chiefs at Bills ($49600) (220.4%): Captain Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Stefon Diggs, Demarcus Robinson, Darrel Williams (11)

Cardinals at Cowboys ($49300) (217.74%): Captain Kenyan Drake, Kyler Murray, Andy Dalton, Amari Cooper, Christian Kirk, Cardinals – (10)

Giants at Eagles ($47600) (234.85%): Captain Carson Wentz, Daniel Jones, Boston Scott, Sterling Shepard, Greg Ward, Wayne Gallman – (2)

Falcons at Panthers ($49700) (227.65%): Captain Curtis Samuel, Matt Ryan, Teddy Bridgewater, Julio Jones, Hayden Hurst, Younghoe Koo – (52)

Cowboys at Eagles ($46900) (296.95%): Captain Eagles DST, Carson Wentz, Travis Fulgham, Boston Scott, Jalen Reagor, Michael Gallup – (25)

Buccaneers at Giants ($49800) (254.73%): Captain Ryan Succop, Tom Brady, Mike Evans, Daniel Jones, Sterling Shepard, Wayne Gallman

Packers at 49ers ($44300) (299.05%): Captain Richie James, Davante Adams, Aaron Rodgers, Nick Mullens, Jerick McKinnon, Marquez Valdes-Scantling – (2)

Saints at Buccaneers ($49400) (181.81%): Captain Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, Mike Evans, Taysom Hill, Emmanuel Sanders, Saints – (2)

Patriots at Jets ($48700) (249.24%): Captain Jakobi Meyers, Cam Newton, Joe Flacco, Rex Burkhead, Breshad Perriman, Nick Folk – (25)

Colts at Titans ($46100) (230.92%): Captain Nyheim Hines, Derrick Henry, Philip Rivers, Corey Davis, Michael Pittman, Rodrigo Blankenship – (2)

Ravens at Patriots ($49500) (276.17%): Captain Willie Snead IV, Lamar Jackson, Cam Newton, Jakobi Meyers, Rex Burkhead, Gus Edwards – (123)

Vikings at Bears ($44500) (165.67%): Captain Justin Jefferson, Kirk Cousins, Adam Thielen, Cordarrelle Patterson, Bears, Vikings – (2)

Seahawks at Cardinals ($48500) (210.92%): Captain Tyler Lockett, Kyler Murray, Kenyan Drake, Chase Edmonds, Carlos Hyde, Larry Fitzgerald – (2)

Chiefs at Raiders ($49900) (226.19%): Captain Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Darren Waller, Nelson Agholor, Le’Veon Bell – (15)

Rams at Buccaneers ($49300) (219.43%): Captain Robert Woods, Jared Goff, Cooper Kupp, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Van Jefferson – (6)

Bears at Packers ($48000) (228.09%): Captain David Montgomery, Aaron Rodgers, Allen Robinson II, Robert Tonyan, Packers, Jamaal Williams – (2)

Seahawks at Eagles ($48700) (194.13%): Captain DK Metcalf, Carson Wentz, Chris Carson, Dallas Goedert, Jason Myers, Richard Rodgers – (1)

Ravens at Steelers ($49300) (234.65%): Captain Marquise Brown, Ben Roethlisberger, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Benny Snell, Steelers DST, Ravens DST – (6)

Broncos at Chiefs ($48200) (266.04%): Captain Travis Kelce, Patrick Mahomes, Melvin Gordon III, Tim Patrick, Harrison Butker, Le’Veon Bell – (9)

Bills at 49ers ($50000) (283.37%): Captain Cole Beasley, Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Nick Mullens, Brandon Aiyuk, Isaiah McKenzie – (209)

Patriots at Rams ($44600) (279.85%): Captain Cam Akers, Jared Goff, Cooper Kupp, Jakobi Meyers, Rams, Damiere Byrd – (2)

Steelers at Bills ($48800) (233.91%): Captain Stefon Diggs, Josh Allen, Ben Roethlisberger, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Bills, Jaylen Samuels – (2)

Ravens at Browns ($50000) (273.6%): Captain Kareem Hunt, Lamar Jackson, Nick Chubb, Baker Mayfield, Rashard Higgins, David Njoku – (109)

Chargers at Raiders ($48500) (227.86%): Captain Justin Herbert, Darren Waller, Josh Jacobs, Hunter Henry, Tyron Johnson, Devontae Booker – (1)

Browns at Giants ($49100) (267.22%): Captain Austin Hooper, Nick Chubb, Baker Mayfield, Jarvis Landry, Darius Slayton, Evan Engram – (9)

Steelers at Bengals ($48500) (224.26%): Captain Benny Snell, Ben Roethlisberger, Diontae Johnson, Ryan Finley, Giovani Bernard, Austin Seibert – (1)

Vikings at Saints ($49100) (226.75%): Captain Alvin Kamara, Kirk Cousins, Adam Thielen, Irv Smith, Latavius Murray, Wil Lutz – (28)

Titans at Packers ($49700) (243.92%): Captain Davante Adams, Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Tannehill, Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon, Equanimeous St. Brown – (25)

Bills at Patriots ($49700) (264.62%): Captain Stefon Diggs, Josh Allen, Cam Newton, Zack Moss, Tyler Bass, Lee Smith – (11)

Football Team at Eagles ($49700) (329.17%): Captain Jalen Hurts, Terry McLaurin, Alex Smith, Logan Thomas, Dustin Hopkins, Boston Scott – (180)

Buccaneers at Football Team ($48400) (235.64%): Captain Taylor Heinicke, Tom Brady, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Leonard Fournette, Cam Sims – (1)

2021:

Cowboys at Buccaneers ($49300) (258.69%): Captain Rob Gronkowski, Dak Prescott, Chris Godwin, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Antonio Brown – (39)

Bears at Rams ($46600) ($46600) (263.26%): Captain Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, David Montgomery, Darrell Henderson Jr., Matt Gay, Van Jefferson Jr. – (4)

Ravens at Raiders ($48400) (259.6%): Captain Darren Waller, Derek Carr, Marquise Brown, Ty’Son Williams, Sammy Watkins, Hunter Renfrow – (14)

Giants at Football Team ($47900) (249.77%): Captain Terry McLaurin, Daniel Jones, Taylor Heinicke, Sterling Shepard, Graham Gano – (13)

Chiefs at Ravens ($49600) (228.63%): Captain Byron Pringle, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Travis Kelce, Marquise Brown, Demarcus Robinson – (6)

Lions at Packers ($50000) (230.14%): Captain Aaron Jones, Davante Adams, Aaron Rodgers, Robert Tonyan, Quintez Cephus, Trinity Benson – (231)

Panthers at Texans ($50000) (216.97%): Captain Sam Darnold, DJ Moore, Brandin Cooks, Davis Mills, Chuba Hubbard, Anthony Miller – (29)

Eagles at Cowboys ($48000) (245.88%): Captain Ezekiel Elliott, Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts, Jalen Reagor, Dalton Schultz, Zach Ertz – (6)

Buccaneers at Patriots ($48900) (192.51%): Captain Mac Jones, Mike Evans, Jakobi Meyers, Leonard Fournette, Hunter Henry, Ryan Succop – (5)

Raiders at Chargers ($47800) (242.63%): Captain Austin Ekeler, Justin Herbert, Derek Carr, Hunter Renfrow, Jared Cook, Donald Parham Jr. – (4)

Rams at Seahawks ($48800) (234.19%): Captain Robert Woods, Matthew Stafford, DK Metcalf, Darrell Henderson Jr., Tyler Higbee, Sony Michel – (13)

Buccaneers at Eagles ($48700) (330.02%): Captain Leonard Fournette, Tom Brady, Jalen Hurts, Antonio Brown, Zach Ertz, O.J. Howard – (306)

Seahawks at Steelers ($49800) (253.93%): Captain Alex Collins, Najee Harris, Ben Roethlisberger, Diontae Johnson, Chris Boswell, Pat Freiermuth – (45)

Bills at Titans ($48500) (262.7%): Captain Derrick Henry, Josh Allen, Cole Beasley, Tyler Bass, Tommy Sweeney – (6)

Broncos at Browns ($49900) (288.36%): Captain D’Ernest Johnson, Teddy Bridgewater, Case Keenum, Noah Fant, Melvin Gordon III, Javonte Williams – (153)

Colts at 49ers ($45600) (264.01%): Captain Michael Pittman Jr., Carson Wentz, Deebo Samuel, Eli Mitchell, Mo Allie-Cox, Colts – (49)

Packers at Cardinals ($49500) (272.32%): Captain Aaron Jones, Aaron Rodgers, James Conner, Chase Edmonds, Zach Ertz, Randall Cobb – (49)

Cowboys at Vikings ($49500) (230.69%): Captain Amari Cooper, Kirk Cousins, CeeDee Lamb, Adam Thielen, Cooper Rush, Cedrick Wilson – (5)

Giants at Chiefs ($49900) (212.57%): Captain Tyreek Hill, Daniel Jones, Darrel Williams, Devontae Booker, Mecole Hardman, John Ross III – (11)

Jets at Colts ($50000) (187.18%): Captain Jonathan Taylor, Carson Wentz, Elijah Moore, Josh Johnson, Nyheim Hines, Tyler Kroft – (1)

Titans at Rams ($48800) (200.46%): Captain Cooper Kupp, Matthew Stafford, Robert Woods, Geoff Swaim, Sony Michel, Titans – (1)

Bears at Steelers ($49300) (236.12%): Captain Pat Freiermuth, Najee Harris, Justin Fields, Darnell Mooney, Cole Kmet, Chris Boswell – (24)

Ravens at Dolphins ($46700) (226.65%): Captain Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, Jaylen Waddle, Rashod Bateman, Dolphins, Albert Wilson – (1)

Chiefs at Raiders ($50000) (205.61%): Captain Darrel Williams, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Hunter Renfrow, Bryan Edwards, Byron Pringle – (13)

Rams at 49ers ($49700) (219.04%): Captain Deebo Samuel, Cooper Kupp, Jimmy Garoppolo, George Kittle, Robbie Gould, 49ers – (29)

Patriots at Falcons ($39600) (190.57%): Captain Patriots DST, Mac Jones, Rhamondre Stevenson, Olamide Zaccheaus, Nelson Agholor, Nick Folk – (4)

Steelers at Chargers ($49600) (247.76%): Captain Austin Ekeler, Justin Herbert, Diontae Johnson, Mike Williams, Chris Boswell, Donald Parham Jr. – (53)

Giants at Buccaneers ($49800) (246.29%): Captain Tom Brady, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Saquon Barkley, Ryan Succop, Ronald Jones II – (36)

 

 

When we review winning lineups, we can think backwards and determine what game-script ideas and correlations went into constructing each roster. In the Week 1 2020 MNF matchup between the Titans and Broncos, pricing was incredibly soft and it was easy to lock in top projected player Derrick Henry into the captain spot without making additional sacrifices to the rest of our lineup. The field followed suit, owning Henry in the captain spot at a 31.4% rate. At elevated ownership, it made sense to look for paths where Henry could be outscored by another option; one such path was to assume the Titans had success through the air. Corey Davis at captain immediately provided leverage off of Henry and fellow WR A.J. Brown, who was also highly owned. The winning lineup paired Davis with QB Ryan Tannehill and included Henry in the flex, locking up a majority of the team’s offensive production. Davis’ cheap $9000 captain salary and lack of high-priced options from the Broncos side kept the lineup’s total salary ($47000) well below the cap without sacrificing too many projected points and ensured it wouldn’t be duplicated despite high cumulative ownership (268.48%). These are the types of decisions we have to think through during showdown lineup construction in an effort to maximize correlation and uniqueness.

 

TEAM-SPECIFIC ANALYSIS & NOTABLE PRICE CONSIDERATIONS

 

NFC East rivals square off on Sunday night, as the Cowboys head to Philadelphia to take on the 5-0 Eagles as 6.5-point road underdogs in a game featuring a meager 42-point total. Quarterbacked by Cooper Rush for at least one more week, we should once again expect Dallas OC Kellen Moore to lean on his rushing attack as he did in Weeks 1-5. On the season, Dallas ranks 27th in PROE (-6.8%) and 23rd in situation-neutral pass rate (52%). Trailing on just 25.5% of their offensive snaps this season, we have a limited sample that indicates Moore is willing to abandon the run even with Rush under center in come-from-behind efforts, as the Cowboys’ pass rate climbs to 70% in negative script. As 6.5-point road underdogs, I’m willing to make volume-based adjustments to Dallas’ aerial attack when I expect Philadelphia to cover. Despite ranking 24th in situation-neutral pass rate (50%), Philly has shown an increased willingness to drop back, ranking 18th in PROE (-0.6%); they just haven’t been forced to, as 65.2% of their offensive snaps have come with a lead. Now as touchdown home favorites facing a Dallas run defense that can be beaten on the ground, I once again expect the Eagles to lean on their rushing attack.

Suffering no ill effects with Dak Prescott sidelined, at least in the volume department, CeeDee Lamb ($9800) has been the Cowboys’ alpha WR1 this season, handling a team-high 35.0% target share to go along with a 44.1% Air Yards share. Priced $1000 below his Week 5 peak, Lamb is a clear bet on talent + volume option even against an Eagles secondary that’s allowed the second-fewest points over expectation to opposing WRs, according to ESPN’s Mike Clay. Over the last two weeks, Lamb has run 53.8% of his routes from the slot, making it possible for him to at least partially avoid lockdown perimeter DBs Darius Slay and James Bradberry. Michael Gallup ($5400) immediately returned to a full-time role in his Week 4 debut, running a route on 85.4% of dropbacks in his first two games back from injury. In Weeks 4-5, he matched Noah Brown ($5000) in target share (19.1%) while Brown edged him slightly in Air Yards share (24.0% to 20.5%). Running 91.1% of his routes out wide, Gallup will have to primarily contend with Slay and Bradberry while Brown should continue to handle roughly 50% of the slot opportunities. While both make strong cases for tournament consideration, I’ll take the $400 savings with Brown if forced to choose only one. Limited in Thursday’s practice, Dalton Schultz ($4800) looks like he’ll once again play through a PCL injury that was at least partially responsible for him running a route on just 32% of Week 6 dropbacks. Given his proximity in price to other Cowboys skill players + risk of injury reaggravation and/or general ineffectiveness, my interest in Dallas’ TE1 is limited. Ezekiel Elliott ($8200) continues to dominate backfield opportunities while also failing to produce fantasy points with those opportunities. This season, he leads the Cowboys’ backfield in rushing share (59.1%), routes run (51%), short-down-and-distance snaps (67%), long-down-and-distance snaps (60%), and two-minute snaps (58%), all while averaging 2.0 fewer DraftKings points per game than backfield mate Tony Pollard ($8000). Though we know Pollard is a more efficient RB, we have a large enough sample to know the Dallas coaching staff is going to feed Zeke 3.77 yards at a time. I’ll be setting rules to negatively boost Pollard’s projection in lineups with Elliott and vice versa. As Silva noted in matchups, Cooper Rush’s ($9400) play has deteriorated as his sample size has grown, and he’s coming off a season-low 102 passing yards plus season highs in sacks taken (3) and fumbles (2) in Week 5 versus the Rams. The Eagles have yielded a league-low 5.0 yards per pass attempt and rank fourth in the NFL in sacks (17). Priced cheap enough, Rush remains a cash-game option given the position’s floor and can be used as a GPP FLEX option in lineups prioritizing Dallas’ aerial attack.

Now five weeks through the regular season, we can say that A.J. Brown ($10600) and DeVonta Smith ($7400) are much more a WR1A and WR1B tandem than early results, and current DraftKings prices, may suggest. On the season, Brown leads the duo in target share (29.6% to 25.0%), Air Yards share (43.4% to 32.4%), and RZ target share (36.8% to 15.8%), but the $3200 discount may prove useful on a slate that doesn’t carry a ton of screaming values. Ranking seventh in Pass EPA/Play and fifth in Explosive Pass Rate Allowed, Dallas’ secondary has been exceptional this season, but it won’t deter me from loading up on the Eagles’ top pass catchers at both CPT and FLEX in tournaments. Now fully priced, Quez Watkins ($4600) is the stereotypical boom-or-bust WR3 who, despite running a route on 64% of dropbacks, is rarely going to see the requisite volume to pay off his tag. Targeted almost exclusively deep downfield, using a roster spot on Watkins is a bet on one of those few targets resulting in a long touchdown. Dallas Goedert ($6800) ranks third on the team in target share (19.1%) and Air Yards share (9.2%), as his PPR-friendly 3.4-yard aDOT has resulted in an 82.8% catch rate. Where he’s just $600 cheaper than Smith, I much prefer the latter if forced to choose, but Dallas can be more susceptible to TE production than their current 8.7 DraftKings points per game allowed would indicate. They rank fifth in the league in TE targets per game (7.8) but 28th in yards (30.8) and have yet to give up a touchdown to the position. On the surface, Dallas looks equally strong against opposing RBs, allowing the league’s fifth-fewest DraftKings points per game (18.7) to the position. A look further suggests that’s mostly a result of limiting enemy backs to the league’s second-fewest touchdowns through five weeks (1). Ranking 19th in rushing yards per game allowed and 28th in Explosive Rush Rate, I like Miles Sanders ($8400) chances of finding box-score success as a 6.5-point home favorite behind an OL that ranks seventh in ESPN’s run-block win rate (74%). Sanders has handled 46.8% of the team’s rushing attempts, 31.1% of the RZ attempts, and 20.0% of the attempts inside the 5-yard line. Additionally, his route participation (37% > 49% > 52% > 63%) has increased each week this season. He’ll still give way to Kenneth Gainwell ($6200) in obvious pass-down situations and will lose some base-down opportunities with Boston Scott ($1200) returning from a two-week absence, but his role within this Philly rushing attack is strong. I will negatively boost Gainwell in lineups where Sanders appears, but I find Scott’s price tag cheap enough that I’m comfortable rostering both together without feeling the need to alter projections. Averaging 27.4 DraftKings points per game this season, Jalen Hurts ($11800) is reaching rarified air as showdown royalty and is still too cheap despite clearing the next-most expensive option by $1200. Dating back to 2020, I’ve logged 12 instances of a favored QB with at least a 20% rush share boasting an ETR projection north of 25.0. In those instances, the average total ownership was 84.4% with CPT ownership topping 26.8%. While a relatively small and specific subset, it does illustrate that ownership can get extremely inflated on these unicorns. Given the variety of paths he has to slate-winning upside, I won’t be too rigid with my CPT Hurts rules but will be conscious of the lineup decisions made around him to avoid heavily-duplicated teams.

UPDATE 7:04pm ET – Dalton Schultz (knee) has been ruled out. Dallas will trot out some combination of Peyton Hendershot ($200) and Jake Ferguson ($200). Both flashed pass-catching upside during their collegiate days and make for viable minimum-priced punts

 TOP PLAYS

Given the importance of maximizing raw points, correlation, and uniqueness, we’ve grouped our top plays into three categories: top overall plays, top value plays, and top leverage plays. Our top leverage plays are ones where we identify a player that has a higher chance to be a necessary piece of a winning lineup than ownership projections would indicate.

 

Player Category Notes
Jalen Hurts Overall Fantasy situations as good as the one Hurts is in are rare. On top of leading an elite pass game, he’s handled 36.6% of the team’s rushing attempts, 53.3% of RZ attempts, and 66.7% of attempts inside the 5-yard line. Cash-game lock. Top overall CPT.
CeeDee Lamb Overall Cooper Rush is regressing, but I’m willing to bet on volume and talent with Lamb. He has a team-leading target share (35.0%) and Air Yards share (44.1%) in a game where Dallas should be forced into plenty of dropbacks. He also gets the benefit of running ~50% of his routes from the slot, where he’ll avoid the Eagles’ stud perimeter DBs.
A.J. Brown Overall Salary is tight, so Brown can likely be sacrificed in cash-game roster construction. But for tournaments, Philly’s WR1 enters Week 6 with a 29.6% target share to go along with a 43.4% Air Yards share.
Miles Sanders Overall It’s not surprising to see Sanders’ snaps (61%) and routes run (49%) increase each week as he earns Philly’s RB1 role. As a 6.5-point home favorite, Sanders should benefit from positive game script. 
Brett Maher Value On a slate starved for value, kickers represent strong options for the floor they offer when compared to similarly-priced skill-position players.
DeVonta Smith Value The $3200 savings in dropping from Brown to Smith might make him a better play after factoring in price. The volume is still impressive, as he’s earned a 25.0% target share and 32.2% Air Yards share.
Noah Brown Value With Schultz playing through a PCL injury, Brown’s opportunities should be safe in what I expect to be a pass-happy game script for Dallas.
Eagles Value Philadelphia’s DL ranks sixth in ESPN’s pass-rush win rate (50%), while Dallas’ OL ranks 32nd in pass-block win rate (43%). Rush has filled in admirably, guiding Dallas to a 4-1 record, but his shortcomings are starting to show.
Quez Watkins Leverage Too expensive for his offensive involvement, Watkins will come with low ownership. His usage profile will result in plenty of poor box-score results, with occasional spikes when he and Hurts connect on one or more deep targets as they did in Week 2.
Tony Pollard Leverage Awkwardly priced between skill-position players with much better base projections and just $200 cheaper than Zeke, Pollard’s ownership will be muted. We know he won’t get a lion’s share of the backfield touches, but the ones he does get are more likely to result in fantasy points.
Dallas Goedert Leverage TEs with Goedert’s skill set never come in too low owned, but his $6800 tag may be difficult to fit in builds that prioritize the top of the board. He offers direct leverage off of the more popular Philly receivers.
Boston Scott Dart Throw Particularly in positive script, a healthy Scott is going to siphon off some base-down work from Sanders. Healthy in Weeks 1-2, he saw 17.8% of the team’s rushing attempts and one carry inside the 5-yard line.

 

STACK IDEAS

* CPT Jalen Hurts + A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith – Far from a one-for-one comparison to the Week 2 MNF slate, and we should refrain from overreacting to single-game samples anyway, but in that contest, CPT Hurts was paired with both Brown and Smith at just a 14.6% clip, while 58.8% of lineups paired Hurts with exactly (1) of his top two targets. I expect a similar situation Sunday night where we can differentiate our CPT Hurts lineups by hoping a vast majority of his passing production funnels through his top receivers.

* CPT CeeDee Lamb, Cooper Rush, Miles Sanders – In spots with alpha WRs in offenses with subpar QBs, we often see the field overcorrect and not pair their CPT pass catcher with his QB often enough. While not something I force, I’ll be boosting Rush’s projection in lineups with CPT Lamb to capture the former’s upside in outcomes where Lamb is the optimal CPT.

* CPT A.J. Brown, Jalen Hurts, Tony Pollard – Brown’s usage profile suggests box-score eruptions are coming. Despite racking up 436 yards on 45 targets this season, he’s found paydirt just once and been a handful of yards away from DraftKings’ 100-yard bonus on a few occasions. If Philly can be pushed, I like his chances of putting together a complete 10/100/1-type game.

* CPT DeVonta Smith, Jalen Hurts, Noah Brown – My CPT player pool will be tight given the strength at the top, but Smith definitely makes the cut. Where he represents such a significant discount from the slate’s most expensive options, it’s not a requirement for him to outscore them in order to finish as the optimal CPT.

* CPT Miles Sanders, Jalen Hurts, Brett Maher – When playing with a lead this season, Philly’s rush rate climbs to 52%. We can attempt to lock up a majority of the Eagles’ touchdowns + rushing yardage with Sanders + Hurts.

 

ROSTER CONSTRUCTION UTILIZATION PROJECTIONS

Understanding how our opponents will construct lineups offers opportunities for leverage in large-field tournaments. These projections use a combination of historical results and slate-specific pricing, ownership, and fantasy-point projections to calculate how often each lineup build will be used. Please note: The number of favorites is listed first; the number of underdogs is listed second. For example, 1-5 refers to one favorite – five underdogs.

 

Roster Construction Utilization
1-5 4.3%
2-4 16.2%
3-3 40.0%
4-2 27.8%
5-1 11.6%

 

 

PROJECTIONS/OWNERSHIP

 

DK IND-MIN Showdown Fantasy and Ownership Projections

NameTeamPositionSalaryProjectionTotal OwnCPT SalaryCPT ProjectionCPT OwnCeilingValue
Justin JeffersonMINWR1160021.256.41740031.816.037.26.8
Jonathan TaylorINDRB1060018.644.91590028.010.932.14.5
Sam DarnoldMINQB1000020.262.61500030.310.130.85.5
Joe FlaccoINDQB980015.841.61470023.85.325.00.7
Aaron JonesMINRB960019.966.31440029.921.434.98.0
Anthony RichardsonINDQB88000.00.0132000.00.00.0-18.2
Josh DownsINDWR800015.445.71200023.111.228.14.8
Michael Pittman Jr.INDWR780011.534.71170017.36.622.40.3
T.J. HockensonMINTE66009.623.8990014.42.918.6-0.8
Jordan AddisonMINWR620010.525.1930015.83.521.61.8
Nick MullensMINQB60000.00.090000.00.00.0-14.0
Brett RypienMINQB60000.00.090000.00.00.0-14.0
Sam EhlingerINDQB60000.00.090000.00.00.0-14.0
J.J. McCarthyMINQB60000.00.090000.00.00.0-14.0
Jason BeanINDQB60000.00.090000.00.00.0-14.0
Alec PierceINDWR56006.213.084009.20.814.1-3.3
VikingsMINDST52006.818.5780010.31.314.2-2.3
Will ReichardMINK50008.523.9750012.81.214.6-0.9
Matt GayINDK48007.421.3720011.11.013.3-1.8
Jalen NailorMINWR40005.518.660008.31.213.1-1.7
ColtsINDDST36005.218.754007.81.212.0-1.8
Trey SermonINDRB32004.14.448006.10.210.0-2.8
Adonai MitchellINDWR30004.920.245007.41.912.0-1.0
Tyler GoodsonINDRB28000.51.042000.70.11.9-8.0
Ty ChandlerMINRB26000.714.039001.11.02.7-7.2
Cam AkersMINRB24004.30.536006.50.111.0-0.9
Josh OliverMINTE20003.43.630005.10.28.4-2.1
Mo Alie-CoxINDTE16003.214.924004.80.78.2-1.7
Kylen GransonINDTE14002.46.821003.60.36.7-2.6
Johnny MundtMINTE12000.65.418000.90.22.2-5.4
Trent Sherfield Sr.MINWR10000.30.815000.50.11.2-5.8
Ashton DulinINDWR8002.02.412003.00.16.8-1.8
Drew OgletreeINDTE6001.65.59002.40.24.9-2.6
C.J. HamMINRB4000.41.36000.70.11.7-4.5
Laquon TreadwellINDWR2000.00.03000.00.00.0-5.3
Sammis ReyesMINTE2000.00.03000.00.00.0-5.3
Evan HullINDRB2000.00.03000.00.00.0-5.3
Zavier ScottMINRB2000.00.03000.00.00.0-5.3
Jeshaun JonesMINWR2000.00.03000.00.00.0-5.3
Andrew DePaolaMINTE2000.00.03000.00.00.0-5.3
Sean McKeonINDTE2000.00.03000.00.00.0-5.3
Anthony GouldINDWR2000.00.03000.00.00.0-5.3
Robert TonyanMINTE2000.00.03000.00.00.0-5.3
Salvon AhmedINDRB2000.00.03000.00.00.0-5.3
D.J. MontgomeryINDWR2000.00.03000.00.00.0-5.3
Jelani WoodsINDTE2000.00.03000.00.00.0-5.3
Nick MuseMINTE2000.00.03000.00.00.0-5.3
Juwann WinfreeINDWR2000.00.03000.00.00.0-5.3
Myles GaskinMINRB2000.00.03000.00.00.0-5.3
Will MalloryINDTE2000.92.23001.30.13.2-3.2
Brandon PowellMINWR2000.31.83000.40.11.1-4.6
Lucky JacksonMINWR2000.00.03000.00.00.0-5.3
Trishton JacksonMINWR2000.00.03000.00.00.0-5.3
Thayer ThomasMINWR2000.00.03000.00.00.0-5.3

 

FD Single Game Projections

NameTeamPositionSalaryProjectionMVP ProjectionCeilingFLEX Value
Lamar JacksonBALQB1550024.30.036.40.037.512.6
Derrick HenryBALRB1450018.10.027.10.033.28.9
Joe BurrowCINQB1400020.30.030.50.031.19.7
Ja'Marr ChaseCINWR1300018.20.027.30.032.710.9
Chase BrownCINRB1250015.80.023.70.029.99.1
Zay FlowersBALWR1200014.40.021.60.028.58.4
Diontae JohnsonBALWR110003.20.04.80.09.0-5.4
Tee HigginsCINWR105000.00.00.00.00.0-10.8
Mark AndrewsBALTE100007.40.011.10.015.71.5
Mike GesickiCINTE95008.50.012.70.017.03.5
Isaiah LikelyBALTE95005.30.08.00.011.9-0.6
Justin TuckerBALK90009.00.013.50.015.03.5
Baltimore RavensBALD90006.70.010.00.014.01.8
Evan McPhersonCINK85007.60.011.40.013.52.8
Cincinnati BengalsCIND85004.20.06.30.010.8-0.2
Zack MossCINRB80000.00.00.00.00.0-7.0
Rashod BatemanBALWR80007.50.011.30.016.95.2
Justice HillBALRB75007.10.010.60.015.85.2
Andrei IosivasCINWR75006.30.09.50.014.24.0
Erick All Jr.CINTE70000.00.00.00.00.0-5.5
Nelson AgholorBALWR70003.20.04.80.08.60.4
Charlie KolarBALTE65001.60.02.40.04.9-1.5
Jermaine BurtonCINWR65004.70.07.10.011.53.4
Drew SampleCINTE60003.20.04.80.07.61.4
Tylan WallaceBALWR60000.20.00.40.00.9-3.4
Keaton MitchellBALRB55000.00.00.00.00.0-3.3
Trenton IrwinCINWR55001.70.02.50.05.20.2
Patrick RicardBALRB55000.40.00.60.01.4-2.3
Charlie JonesCINWR55000.00.00.00.00.0-3.3
Trayveon WilliamsCINRB55001.70.02.60.05.00.1
Dayton WadeBALWR50000.00.00.00.00.0-2.5
Owen WrightBALRB50000.00.00.00.00.0-2.5
Rasheen AliBALRB50000.00.00.00.00.0-2.5
Cal AdomitisCINTE50000.00.00.00.00.0-2.5
Jake BrowningCINQB50000.00.00.00.00.0-2.5
Chris EvansCINRB50000.00.00.00.00.0-2.5
Tanner HudsonCINTE50003.30.05.00.08.13.2
Keith KirkwoodBALWR50000.00.00.00.00.0-2.5
Malik CunninghamBALQB50000.00.00.00.00.0-2.5
Devin LearyBALQB50000.00.00.00.00.0-2.5
Logan WoodsideCINQB50000.00.00.00.00.0-2.5
Qadir IsmailBALWR50000.00.00.00.00.0-2.5
Tanner McLachlanCINTE50000.10.00.20.00.5-2.2
Anthony MillerBALWR50000.00.00.00.00.0-2.5
Josh JohnsonBALQB50000.00.00.00.00.0-2.5
Cole BurgessCINWR50000.00.00.00.00.0-2.5
Cam GrandyCINTE50000.00.00.00.00.0-2.5
Zaire Mitchell-PadenBALTE50000.00.00.00.00.0-2.5
Devontez WalkerBALWR50000.00.00.00.00.0-2.5
Deonte HartyBALWR50000.00.00.00.00.0-2.5
Kendall MiltonCINRB50000.00.00.00.00.0-2.5
Kendric PryorCINWR50000.50.00.80.02.2-1.2