I play around 60% of my action each week in “cash games.” Cash games refer to any contest in which roughly 50% of the field gets paid out, such as head-to-head, double up or 50/50. I try to get as much head-to-head action as I can every week and then supplement that with other cash games.
Each week, I’ll review my cash-game lineup in this space. Sometimes I’ll lose, but hopefully I’ll win more often. Either way, I’ll post it here and give you my thought process.
I thought the biggest story of this slate was the Jacksonville potential rest situation. If they were playing normally, Evan Engram and Travis Etienne were clearly two of the best plays on the slate. But there was risk there as the Jags had very little to play for. More on that below.
MY MUST PLAYS
* This was a slate with a ton of viable QB options, but only one true standout. That was Jared Goff, in a dome with all his weapons facing the Bears’ historically bad pass defense. At just $5600, this was a no-brainer. Especially with Josh Allen/Jalen Hurts not on the slate and Patrick Mahomes/Justin Fields too expensive. We had Goff projected for the third-most QB points on the entire slate, behind only Mahomes and Fields.
* Along those lines, Amon-Ra St. Brown had the same outrageously good matchup as Goff. And while ARSB wasn’t grossly underpriced like Goff was, he did stand out on this slate for cash. St. Brown’s target-earning floor but low aDOT made for an ideal play in this dome spot.
* Mike White (ribs) was mercifully cleared to start for the Jets, sending Zach Wilson back to the bench. That raised the team pass volume projection a bit and the pass efficiency projection significantly. It also meant that alpha rookie Garrett Wilson was far too cheap at just $5500 on a relatively weak WR slate.
* Given how weak the WR slate was for cash, I was looking for a viable punt. That came into play when DeAndre Hopkins was ruled out on Saturday. Greg Dortch already had a the slot role mostly to himself, but Nuk’s absence opened up a bunch more targets. Obviously I didn’t love playing Dortch with David Blough, but at $3000 on a slate I didn’t have very many WRs in my cash pool I thought it was correct.
MY WANT PLAYS
* Saquon Barkley’s ceiling remains a question, but his role is undoubtedly very strong. A true three-down plus goal-line back as a home favorite against a Colts team mailing in the rest of the season was a really good spot. Obviously I would have loved to find the $1000 to get to Christian McCaffrey here, as his efficiency and pass-game role is far better. And maybe I should have prioritized that.
* I played with lineups all week that had one or both of Evan Engram and Travis Etienne. And I did believe Doug Pederson’s story that the starters would play until the game was “in check.” However, I was a bit worried when Adam Schefter wrote this story but the betting line didn’t move. In fact, the line went from Jaguars -3.5 to Jaguars -3 for a bit on Sunday after the Schefter story. That gave me some pause, I thought there was a 5% chance there could be some funny business with the Jags. And in cash, where plays are very close, I decided in tight spots I would lean away from Jags.
So at tight end, I thought the two best punts were Jelani Woods and Cade Otton. After thinking about it some close to lock, I decided that on full-PPR DraftKings I did prefer Otton. Tom Brady’s pass attempt range is literally 35-50 every week, often with a low-ish aDOT, and there was no threat to Otton running a route on every dropback since Cam Brate was a healthy scratch. Meanwhile, Jelani’s QB was Nick Foles who would be lucky to get to 30 attempts.
In order to get to Otton on this team however, I had to go from the more explosive Tyler Allgeier to plodder Brian Robinson and from Packers D/ST to Saints D/ST. I was fine with that. Although B-Rob’s pass-game role was a huge concern, I thought 20+ carries against a poor Browns rush defense at $5200 was really strong. Meanwhile, Allgeier had a higher ceiling but was threatened by Cordarrelle Patterson.
And at defense, regular readers know I’m always willing to play the cheapest viable option. Yeah the 49ers were a very strong play, but the random nature of D/ST doesn’t make something like them a “must.” So the Saints against a pocket-passing Gardner Minshew (no Jalen Hurts) without stud tackle Lane Johnson was acceptable to me.
* I thought about Christian McCaffrey vs. Justin Jefferson a bunch. We had CMC ahead in base projection, but Jefferson ahead in ceiling. It was an incredibly close call and in these spots I typically lean RB in cash. But Jefferson’s outrageous ceiling appealed to me. In hindsight, this was perhaps wrong given the RB floors and the matchups.
Week 17 Results
I think I did a lot of things well this week:
* Getting off the Jacksonville guys was right considering their playing time turned out to indeed be a bit fragile.
* Brian Robinson getting 18 first-half carries and 24 total carries against the Browns was strong at $5200 – meanwhile Tyler Allgeier lost 9 carries and eight targets to Cordarrelle Patterson.
* Tom Brady threw 45 passes with Cade Otton has his TE – meanwhile Nick Foles/Sam Ehlinger combined to throw just 27 passes.
* I got great a result from being willing to lean into D/ST uncertainty with the Saints.
However, I played Justin Jefferson over Christian McCaffrey. And I’m honestly not sure that was a mistake. But regardless, I simply can’t win when I’m on the wrong side there by 31 points. It continues a frustrating stretch for me where my most expensive players are failing.
Year-To-Date Results
Week 1: 172.02 points, won 80.7% of head-to-heads
Week 2: 127.28 points, won 65.8% of head-to-heads
Week 3: 139.86 points, won 96.9% of head-to-heads
Week 4: 171.52 points, won 89.5% of head-to-heads
Week 5: 184.36 points, won 62.1% of head-to-heads
Week 6: 135.86 points, won 51.6% of head-to-heads
Week 7: 165.40 points, won 77.8% of head-to-heads
Week 8: 194.24 points, won 87.1% of head-to-heads
Week 9: 161.62 points, won 73.9% of head-to-heads
Week 10: 160.18 points, won 81.7% of head-to-heads
Week 11: 96.68 points, won 52.2% of head-to-heads
Week 12: 145.12 points, won 59.9% of head-to-heads
Week 13: 150.04 points, won 52.1% of head-to-heads
Week 14: 130.60 points, won 57.5% of head-to-heads
Week 15: 101.42 points, won 8.1% of head-to-heads
Week 16: DID NOT PLAY
Week 17: 83.10 points, won 19.3% of head-to-heads
* Note: Win percentages do not include ties
