Green Bay @ Chicago
Team Totals: Bears 22, Packers 21
I’m expecting Packers HC Matt LaFleur to begin the Jordan Love Era in conservative fashion, leaning on Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon while manufacturing high-percentage pass plays designed to get and keep Love in rhythm. Green Bay’s best and most trustworthy player on offense at this point, Jones makes sense to be the focus of LaFleur’s Week 1 game plan. After surrendering the NFL’s second-most fantasy running back points in 2022, this year’s Bears’ defensive front looks only marginally improved, while this game projects for neutral game script, which would allow the Packers to stay on schedule. I like Jones as an upside RB2 play and Dillon as a touchdown-reliant flex option. … Regarding Love, I’m most intrigued to see whether the Packers feature him as a runner. Love is a plus athlete but never reached 200 rushing yards over three seasons at Utah State. I’m treating Love as a low-end two-quarterback-league play here.
Packers second-round pick Luke Musgrave is the rare rookie tight end I might consider starting in Week 1. Prolific draft analyst Dane Brugler rated Musgrave as this year’s No. 1 tight end in a historically rich tight end class, before Packers beat writers raved about Musgrave’s training camp performance. Musgrave paced Green Bay in target share (24%) on Love’s throws this preseason and will open the year as a true every-down player. … Christian Watson is a locked-in WR2 after finishing his 2022 rookie campaign top 10 in the NFL in yards per route run (2.57) and No. 3 in yards after catch per reception. Romeo Doubs’ balky hamstring could increase Love’s reliance on Watson, especially after Watson dominated Air Yards share (37%) on Love’s preseason passes. … If Doubs can’t go or is limited, second-round rookie Jayden Reed’s role would elevate. Michigan State alum Reed showed elite skill with the ball in his hands in college, scoring three career punt return TDs and averaging over 14.0 yards per catch.
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