GPP Leverage: Week 7

Breaking down last week’s perfect lineup: 

Desmond Ridder makes an appearance for the second week in a row, and it is a prime example of what we broke down last week in regard to quarterback pricing and the tight nature of DraftKings. I suspect we’ll continue to see this trend, where at the very least the low end of QB is viable, if not optimal. It’s something we need to adjust to.

Ridder brought Drake London along with him, or perhaps it was the other way around. London profiled as a great play last week in a matchup with a Washington team that has been gashed through the air.

Meanwhile, we saw a bunch of familiar figures in this group, with three chalky RBs involved with Travis Etienne, Kyren Williams, and Raheem Mostert, who brought along an obscene 49% total ownership in large-field GPPs. It’s hard to call anyone played at that volume a good play, but we knew Mostert was in a good spot. Not all chalk is created equally.

Amon-Ra St. Brown was the high-ceiling contrarian piece that was a great GPP play, while Dalton Schultz has now been optimal two weeks in a row. Adam Thielen continues to crush this season.

On to Week 7,  which presents tons of challenges that should be perceived as edges for us. It’s a 10-game “ugly” slate that presents not many games with an attractive environment, and none that project very well. It’s situations like these that we should be able to get weird, exploit, and find ourselves atop leaderboards. 

The Chargers-Chiefs game is the only one with a game total over 45.5, and it’s still not even that attractive at 47.5 (down from 49). The Chiefs have had a stout defense all season, and the Chargers have continued to underachieve. However, because the rest of the slate has even uglier games, this one projects to be quite popular, which is a position I’m comfortable being under the field on. I won’t fully fade it, but Patrick Mahomes‘ $8,300 tag, along with Travis Kelce‘s $8,000 tag, make it more of a “pay-up-to-be-contrarian” spot. However, they are looking at some ownership. The problem is, they are both projecting for plenty of ownership with the mid-tier and low-end plays expected to be owned. It’s a mediocre spot to me at this point, especially considering the Chiefs’ stout defense. It’s worth noting that DraftKings priced up Justin Herbert all the way to $8K, and I don’t expect anyone to play him in this tough matchup.

Packers @ Broncos (GB -1.5, O/U 45.5) 

• It’s hard to look at this game as a weak one this week, with both teams struggling defensively and Vegas viewing it as an overall better environment than most others in Week 7. Jordan Love has shown a low floor this season, but coming off of a bye and with a great matchup versus Denver, the ceiling is very high.
• Love also gets Christian Watson and Aaron Jones fully healthy this week, both of whom are strong GPP plays. Luke Musgrave projects to be chalky, and with that chalk, I prefer him correlated in GPPs.
• The Packers haven’t exactly been the best defense themselves, so the Denver side also projects as viable in GPPs. Russell Wilson likely has a floor, but I question his ceiling for tournaments.
• It’s ugly, but you can paint a Jerry Jeudy squeaky wheel narrative case. I also think both Jaleel McLaughlin and Javonte Williams belong in player pools.

Cardinals @ Seahawks (SEA – 8, O/U 44.5)