Strength in Numbers: Actionable Week 9 Stats

We’re going to get a lot of stuff wrong, but sifting through usage metrics can help us work through what matters and what doesn’t. That’s the goal of this article: to break down the most actionable takeaways from each week in a concise, numbers-filled format and work through what’s important. Let’s get right to it.

Keaton Mitchell forces three-player committee in Baltimore

Mitchell, a 4.37 speedster out of East Carolina, missed most of the first half of his rookie campaign with shoulder and hamstring injuries, but he played a big role for the Ravens in their Week 9 blowout win over Seattle. Mitchell finished with nine carries — four more than Gus Edwards — but that’s a slightly deceiving number because he was the primary back when Baltimore was draining the clock at the end of the game. Still, Mitchell had four carries in the first half, the same number as both Edwards and Justice Hill, and he ended up as the most efficient Ravens back on the day.

Mitchell didn’t record a touch in the first quarter, but he was a massive factor in the final three periods, primarily playing on early downs (one third-down snap, per PFF’s Nathan Jahnke). Edwards did miss Wednesday’s practice with a toe ailment, but he himself said during the week that he was ready to handle a big load in Week 9, making it increasingly perplexing that Hill out-snapped him 48-14 and he finished with just five carries. The toe injury could have played a role in Edwards’ decreased role; his Week 10 usage will be telling. Given Edwards’ market share had been growing heading into Sunday and he’d played well, I am inclined to believe there was another factor (the toe injury or something else) at play, but we’ll see next week.

The Mitchell usage wouldn’t have been so concerning for Edwards and Hill if he wasn’t so ridiculously efficient. Mitchell ripped two runs over 40 yards and averaged 15.3 yards per tote against a Seahawks rush defense that had been pretty stout through eight weeks. The rookie had minimal involvement in the passing game (three routes on 38 Ravens dropbacks, while Hill had 27 routes and Edwards seven) and Edwards still handled the goal-line carries, so Mitchell is a ways away from being fantasy-relevant. However, any usage for him is pretty crushing for the other Ravens backs considering Baltimore doesn’t throw to their RBs much. If Mitchell carves out a consistent role, Edwards would be mostly reliant on TDs to post viable fantasy games.

Aaron Jones finally gets back to normal usage

Entering Week 9, Jones hadn’t recorded double-digit carries in a game all season. Before Week 8, Packers coach Matt LaFleur said that Jones was a little sore and they needed to slowly ramp up his workload. Predictably, Jones barely played 50% of snaps and only out-carried A.J. Dillon 7-6.

Going into Week 9, LaFleur flipped his tone and noted that they were ready to “cut [Jones] loose”. He was honest once again, as Jones played a season-high 56.9% of snaps (would have been higher if Emanuel Wilson hadn’t played in mop-up duty in a blowout victory) and finished with 20 carries — a mark he eclipsed just once all of last season. Jones was also heavily involved as a pass catcher, earning six targets for a 23.1% share, although his route participation (16 routes on 32 Jordan Love dropbacks) still was merely alright. Still, this was a hugely encouraging game for Jones considering he’d been limited for weeks since returning from his original injury in Week 7. Dillon has largely been ineffective running the ball this year, averaging just 3.1 yards per carry, and Green Bay finally moved away from him against the Rams (his 25.7% designed carry share was easily a season low).

Moving forward, Dillon is nothing more than Jones insurance, and not particularly good insurance since we have already seen what his role is without Jones. Jones should flirt with RB1 numbers for the rest of the season as long as he stays healthy.

Jerome Ford retakes lead-back role for Browns