Week 11 Record: 12-13, -$166
YTD: 149-134, -$80
The goal with our betting product is winning and full transparency. Every week, we’ll recap a selection of our official prop bets, telling you what we got right, what we got wrong, and how we got there. Here’s a look back at Week 11.
Will Levis Over 31.5 Passing Attempts -102 (17, L)
Mean proj: 33.6
There were two problems with this absolute airball:
- No plays
- No desire to get back in the game
The Titans ran a meager 38 plays — the lowest total of any team this year out of 328 games.
If that wasn’t bad enough, they refused to pass the ball despite getting blown out by the Jaguars.
The trailing game script gave them a 64.1% Expected Pass Rate, but they passed just 52.6% of the time for a -11.5% Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE), which was their second-lowest mark of the season.
Last week in a negative game script, the Titans leaned into passing while trailing with a +0.36% PROE, so their refusal to pass this week was puzzling, particularly against a pass-funnel Jaguars defense.
Dak Prescott Over 32.5 Passing Attempts -125 (38, W)
Mean proj: 35.1
At the other end of the spectrum, the Cowboys continued to cut Dak Prescott loose in yet another pass-heavy outing, their fourth straight positive PROE performance coming out of the bye.
Even in games where they are double-digit favorites like this one, we’re unlikely to see many attempts lines this low going forward for Dak.
Michael Gallup Under 1.5 Receptions -148 (3, L)
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