I play around 60% of my action each week in “cash games.” Cash games refer to any contest in which roughly 50% of the field gets paid out, such as head-to-head, double up or 50/50. I try to get as much head-to-head action as I can every week and then supplement that with other cash games.
Each week, I’ll review my cash-game lineup in this space. Sometimes I’ll lose, but hopefully I’ll win more often. Either way, I’ll post it here and give you my thought process.
I decided to focus my cash game attention on FanDuel again this week. I talked about it a bit on this Solo Pod, but the bottom line is I’ve merely wanted to change things up. The scoring system (half-PPR, no bonuses) and pricing structure ($60K cap vs. $50K cap) certainly necessitates a change in strategy.
This was only a 10-game slate due to Thanksgiving plus the Friday game. It created a tighter player pool – I only considered 1 QB, 5 RBs, 7 WRs, 2 TEs, and 3 D/STs. When I have a tight pool like that, I typically feel good about construction. I just need to get the close calls right.
MY MUST PLAYS
* In the game before the Colts’ bye, we saw Jonathan Taylor out-carried Zack Moss 23-1. Taylor also ran 22 routes compared to just 2 for Moss. While I didn’t expect the gap to be that wide this week, I did think 70-30 in favor of Taylor was very likely.
And given Taylor’s raw talent and the upgrade with Gardner Minshew at QB (more RB checkdowns and more goal-line rushing opportunities without Anthony Richardson), the $7500 tag was far too cheap.
* As usual, I was looking to spend up at quarterback given FanDuel’s scoring system. While I certainly liked the spots for CJ Stroud ($7700) and Trevor Lawrence ($7800), they were simply too close in price to Jalen Hurts ($8800). The tush-push equity is so insanely high on a site that rewards rushing TDs so heavily. Note that Josh Allen was $400 more than Hurts and on the road with worse weaponry, making Hurts the must for me.
MY WANT PLAYS
* This was a very good setup for Isiah Pacheco. The Chiefs have major pass-catcher problems, they’re facing the Raiders, Jerick McKinnon + Kadarius Toney were out. At just $6600, I could make a case for Pacheco as a “must.”
But there were other RBs I liked: James Conner ($6600), Rachaad White ($7000), D’Andre Swift ($7200). And we know the Chiefs rarely just turn and hand to RB at the goal-line. So while I really liked Pacheco, he was just on the border of “must.”
* I always wanted to play Rachaad White’s truly elite role against a brutal Colts defense in the dome. No matter the game script, no matter the gameplan, White is involved. His pass-catching ability and price on DraftKings made him a must there. Of course, that was before the Saturday news broke that White (knee) had been added to the injury report as Q. However, this Adam Schefter report suggested White was totally fine and made me comfortable with him. Ke’Shawn Vaughn was also inactive as we noted on Last Minute Livestream, suggesting the Bucs weren’t too worried about White’s knee.
On FanDuel however, $7000 for a RB whose calling card is pass-catching rather than TDs can’t be a must. I looked at teams that saved the $400 by going down to Conner, and spent another $200 to get D’Andre Swift. But didn’t like any of the teams upgrades/downgrades there, so was more than fine sticking to White.
* D/ST is always a priority for me on FanDuel given the scoring system. I did not want to “punt” with something like Texans ($3300), Cardinals ($3500), or Rams ($3600). I thought the choices were Patriots ($4500) against sack-happy Tommy Devito, Titans ($4300) against league-worst Bryce Young, or Broncos ($4100) home against DTR.
Our projections and sims strongly preferred Patriots, due to projected dropbacks and Devito’s insane sack rate. So I tried to prioritize them.
* There were only two options at tight end in my opinion: Trey McBride or Dalton Kincaid. I thought it was incredibly close – McBride’s role is better but Kincaid’s matchup + game environment was better. In the end, I decided to go with the better quarterback and get some exposure to the Bills side in an excellent pass-game matchup for them.
* I really struggled with the WR spots on FanDuel this week. I thought AJ Brown was an awesome play, but I got off him for a few reasons: The rain forecast in Philly kept getting worse, I didn’t want to punt a WR spot with a Justin Watson or Robert Woods type, and I already had Brown covered with Jalen Hurts.
I also was tempted to go back to Cooper Kupp at just $8000 against the Cardinals, but really didn’t think his ankle was anywhere near 100%. Just too much risk for cash.
So once I decided I wasn’t playing AJB and Kupp, I looked at all kinds of combos. Tank Dell ($7800), Michael Pittman, Chris Godwin were in my first cut. In the end I decided I wanted to lean into the JAX/HOU game with both Nico Collins ($6900) and Christian Kirk. To make it work, I had to play Josh Downs ($5900) over Michael Pittman ($7600), which I was fine with. Prior to Downs’ knee injury, he was showing really explosive ability from the valuable slot role.
Week 12 Main Slate Results
As expected when I have a tight player pool, I feel really good about the team I played. I also got a bit lucky as Zack Moss played far more than I thought he would. And Jalen Hurts + Nico Collins both exploded very late in their games. But the decision not to force AJ Brown or Cooper Kupp, and to pay up at D/ST, made all the difference.
As for the 3-game Thanksgiving slate, I thought Dak Prescott and Christian McCaffrey were absolute locks. Beyond that, the team made itself as it often does on the short slates. It was nice to get a little profit back on Christian Watson after being down so bad on him in the Best Ball streets! Here’s what I played on Thanksgiving:
Year-To-Date Results
Week 1: 132.7 points, won 51.5% of head-to-heads
Week 2: 126.34 points, won 63.6% of head-to-heads
Week 3: 166.98 points, won 59.8% of head-to-heads
Week 4: 169.12 points, won 75.2% of head-to-heads
Week 5: 107.62 points, won 5.5% of head-to-heads
Week 6: 140.22 points, won 49.1% of head-to-heads
Week 7: 124.98 points, won 51.2% of head-to-heads (FanDuel)
Week 8: 79.58 points, won 10.3% of head-to-heads (FanDuel)
Week 9: 113.88 points, won 56.3% of head-to-heads (FanDuel)
Week 10: 92.76 points (original team), won 8.2% of head-to-heads. 131.16 points (late swap), won 100% of head-to-heads (FanDuel)
Week 11: 107.96 points, won 31.0% of head-to-heads (FanDuel)
Week 12 Thanksgiving: 134.54 points, won 82.8% of head-to-heads (FanDuel)
Week 12 Main: 147.90 points, won 79.6% of head-to-heads (FanDuel)
* Note: Win percentages do not include ties.
