NBA Matchups: January 12

Sacramento Kings at Philadelphia 76ers

Team Totals: Kings 120.8, 76ers 121.8

Injury Report: Joel Embiid (O, knee), Robert Covington (O, knee), Kevin Huerter (Q, ankle)

Kings projected starters: De’Aaron Fox, Chris Duarte, Keegan Murray, Harrison Barnes, Domantas Sabonis

76ers projected starters: Tyrese Maxey, De’Anthony Melton, Tobias Harris, Nicolas Batum, Paul Reed

Brown quotes: Said he liked how they played defense in their last seven quarters (DET went off in 1Q), said Monk continues to make his case for 6MOY, said they’re starting to play more consistently and he’s excited about turning it around with two road wins.

Nurse quotes: Said Maxey getting more reps to close games is good for him and the sixth foul was tough, said Melton was on a minutes limit and “hopefully we’ll bump it up” for Friday.

Stats and Notes: 

*No Joel Embiid again, so we’ll get a 76ers team that hasn’t exactly lit it up on offense without him. They have been awful in the halfcourt, and their perimeter shooting has failed them. The good news is the Kings could lay an egg on defense, and the pace of the game should be up there. For the Philly defense, they are getting killed inside as they get beat on the boards, and they’re in one of their worst stretches of transition defense they’ve had all season. Their points allowed off cuts have also really jumped up, so they are just giving up so much of the easy stuff. The Kings might be able to take this one.

*De’Aaron Fox still hasn’t exactly looked right, and he’s off to a slow start in 2024 with a 20/3/5 line after his torrid 30/5/6 line over November and December. It’s not even really a function of his minutes, and it’s more about a hit to his efficiency and usage. As mentioned on the Injury Show, some of the beats have picked up that he may not be healthy. Fox mentioned earlier this year that he expects his ankle to linger for most of the season, but he was cooking following his ankle sprain a couple of months ago. It’s a tough situation, but the matchup is pretty decent against a hobbled and limited De’Anthony Melton. He’s solid, but he wouldn’t be my favorite play. That would be…

*Domantas Sabonis should absolutely smash Paul Reed. After John Collins put a baby in the 76ers with his rolls, the 76ers allowed a whopping 24 points to rollers in the ATL game. While Fox has been cold, Sabonis is flamethrowing with a 25/15/9 line in 2024. In this span, he leads the league in frontcourt touches at 61.0 per game and nobody is close (53.8 for Randle). This is one of the best spots he can ask for.

*Besides those studs, Keegan Murray is clearly in play. He’s on fire to start 2024 with his 65.5 TS%, and he’s played 35.0 minutes per game. The matchup isn’t terrible with Tobias Harris guarding him, but he may have to guard Tyrese Maxey (Duarte might guard Maxey, too). It’s still a bit tough. If Kevin Huerter can’t play, that makes Malik Monk more attractive.

*Tyrese Maxey has been just fine in his games without Joel Embiid at 30/5/9, but he has struggled a bit with his shooting. As a PNR handler, he’s been at just 0.78 PPP, and he’s even been below 1.00 PPP in transition. He’s also been bad on jumpers overall, and all of these aspects of his game seem to be pretty fluky. The dimes are also for real with 16.0 potentials per game in his last two. This matchup should be excellent with the added pace, and it does help that the 76ers are not on a B2B. We could get a mega Maxey game.

*Paul Reed? The chances of getting doghouse’d are very real, but the Kings are a little vulnerable inside. I wouldn’t want to bet overs on him, but there’s a very good chance he’s capable of putting up a huge line.

*De’Anthony Melton should be on a minutes limit, so he’s out. Tobias Harris may have to play a ton, and should benefit from some soft matchups. He’s certainly in play here.

Great matchups: Tyrese Maxey, Domantas Sabonis

Good matchups: De’Aaron Fox, Tobias Harris, Paul Reed (could flop)

Bad matchups: Nobody

————————————————————-

Indiana Pacers at Atlanta Hawks (front end)

Team Totals: Pacers 123.5, Hawks 129

Injury Report: Aaron Nesmith (Q, shin), Jalen Smith (Q, back), Clint Capela (P, Achilles), Garrison Mathews (Q, ankle), Wesley Matthews (O, calf), Trae Young (P, shoulder)

Pacers projected starters: Andrew Nembhard, Bruce Brown, Aaron Nesmith, Jalen Smith, Myles Turner

Hawks projected starters: Trae Young, Dejounte Murray, Saddiq Bey, Jalen Johnson, Clint Capela

Carlisle quotes: Said they played very hard and had strong efforts defensively, said they had a “sustained level of force”, said Bruce Brown “got us going” on offense, said they have to play a balanced game and rebound the ball better, said O rebounding really hurt them, said Nembhard still doesn’t have his rhythm back, said Bruce Brown is finally healthy now and wasn’t healthy for a while, said we’re “probably” going to play 10 deep without Nembhard, said Nwora showed what a professional in the NBA looks like, said they told Nwora he was going to be in the rotation following the Jalen Smith news, said Jarace Walker was sick, said Jalen Smith kept reaching for his lower back during warmups and the trainers eventually told Carlisle he can’t go on Wednesday, said Bruce Brown was getting more offensive looks and Bruce prides himself on playing 1-4 and switching roles.

Snyder quotes: Said Trae had a great mindset to get his teammates involved, said Dejounte and Trae managed the game throughout, said it was a collective effort with their rebounding and loose balls, said Jalen Johnson had a huge bounce-back game after his bad game two games ago (Jalen hit a big shot late), said Jalen’s development is still there and he’s better at letting the game come to him, said they need to get in the paint more and they were able to keep turnovers down, said Forrest and Bruno stepped up in their roles.

Stats and Notes:

*We get one of the best game environments on the slate, and the Pacers just punked the Hawks last game 150-116. I was all over Indy -3 because the Pacers crush in transition and live around the basket, and those are the two biggest weaknesses of the Hawks. Of course, no Haliburton this time, and the Pacers didn’t have their transition O going at just 18 points against the Wizards, who are terrible in transition. They haven’t scored below 18 points in transition since Nov. 18, so the one-game sample suggests that their transition offense could take a hit here. The Hawks are still getting smoked around the basket even with more size, but their offense has been very inconsistent. Additionally, the Pacers have been much better on the defensive end at 10th since they made the Jalen Smith move, including seventh in halfcourt D. I think the Pacers might still be OK here.

*Without Tyrese Haliburton on Wednesday, T.J. McConnell was the lead handler by a lot with his 6.1 minutes of touch time in just 22 minutes (Nembhard 5.1 in 26.2, Brown 2.8, and Mathurin 1.8). McConnell also was the leading passer with his 13 potential assists (Nembhard 8). The pace of this game should work in McConnell’s favor, and he should be able to do damage against a rim funnel despite how he could get blocked a few times. He’s a much better play than Nembhard. That said, it’s not great that Carlisle didn’t overlap them, so it’s still thin since he got priced up.

*It’s just a little tough to get excited about Andrew Nembhard. He’s going to have to guard Trae Young, and no overlap with McConnell makes him a really tough sell. Of course, he should have a ton of minutes and the game environment is as good as it gets. A big game is thin, but it could happen.

*Bennedict Mathurin is a little tricky here. There’s a huge path to his minutes, but Jalen Johnson being there does make it a little risky to play with some really small lineups on the wing. He should be able to score a ton in his time out there, and he might be too good to basically ice Bruce Brown. I’m in for Benny again.

*Myles Turner gets the best matchup of the bunch with the Hawks getting beat up inside. It’s pretty straightforward.

*Trae Young continues his on-ball domination as the league’s highest-scoring PNR handler at 12.8 points per game. Coach Snyder continues to add a bigger foundation of the Trae PNR game, and I’m not too worried about Nembhard here. The Pacers don’t help off much and allow the second-most PNR handler points per game. Trae should smash.

*Dejounte Murray could also be in a huge spot. While Bruce Brown does look healthier, he was just getting demolished before his time off for his knee issue. Dejounte being integrated more into a second-side scorer has led to big output, and it’s encouraging he looked great on Wednesday. Murray has the best 1-on-1 matchup, but I like it slightly more for Trae because of how bad the Pacers handle handlers.

*Jalen Johnson is just a mad man. I have no notes. While the Pacers are a little better with their rim D, Johnson is just too good in so many different aspects. His minutes are going to be up there in this one.

*Clint Capela could also be in a good spot, but any tag on an Achilles is cause for concern. This isn’t really the spot for Bogdan Bogdanovic or Saddiq Bey because the Pacers take away C&S points better than anyone in the league. Bogdan is third in the NBA for C&S points, so it hurts him the most.

Great matchups: Trae Young, Myles Turner, Jalen Johnson

Good matchups: Dejounte Murray, T.J. McConnell, Clint Capela, Bennedict Mathurin

Bad matchups: Saddiq Bey, Bogdan Bogdanovic

——————————————————————

Houston Rockets (front end) at Detroit Pistons