Each week, there are unexpected performances across the NFL that leave fantasy gamers puzzled. In 2023, for example, you may have asked yourself the following:
- Is Puka Nacua’s 14-target performance in Week 1 a fluke or a sign of things to come? (Answer: He’s legit)
- Should I chase Will Levis after a dazzling 4-TD performance in his debut in Week 8? (Answer: No)
- De’Von Achane had 51 points in Week 3…after being a healthy scratch in Week 1? What the hell do I do with that information? (Answer: Buy Achane in all your leagues!)
The goal of this article is to help you separate the signal from the noise for the most perplexing breakout fantasy performances from the previous week. Each week, I will cover ~3-5 situations in-depth through both a statistical and film-based lens to help you answer pressing questions related to waivers, trades, start-sit decisions, or DFS lineup decisions. Let’s get into it:
Xavier Legette | Dontayvion Wicks | Chase Brown
The Red Rifle breathes life into Xavier Legette
In August, a mysterious man with a time machine visited me to warn me that Diontae Johnson was going to put up back-to-back 21+ PPR point performances in Weeks 3 and 4.
“Surprising, but not completely shocking”, I responded confidently, “it’s actually pretty easy to see how Dave Canales, the ‘QB whisperer’, could coax improved quarterback play out of former first overall pick Bryce Young, leading to fantasy production for his wide receivers.”
“Pfff-”, the hooded man blurted out, almost spitting out his coffee. “That’s not exactly what…Bryce Young…I mean…you’ll see”, he said wryly, snickering as he waltzed off into the morning fog, knowing that I had no idea what I was talking about.
It’s not Young, but Andy “Red Rifle” Dalton that has breathed life into the Panthers’ pass-catching corps. While Johnson has been the most obvious beneficiary, 2024 first-round pick Xavier Legette (pronounced LEE-gette) popped in the box score in Week 4, with six catches for 66 yards and a TD, to go along with two carries for 10 yards. What type of fantasy asset do we have in the young WR, and should we expect more strong performances going forward? Let’s dive in.
Starting with Legette’s statistical profile, the early returns are intriguing. Through four weeks of his NFL career, Legette boasts 1.5 yards per route run (YPRR) and 19% targets per route run (TPRR). To put those in context, that would put Legette in the ~70th percentile for YPRR and ~75th percentile for TPRR amongst all rookie WRs since 2013 (minimum 100 routes run).
Just based on these two metrics, statistically similar rookie-year comps include several “hits”:
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